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Visando contribuir com o debate sobre o ajuste fiscal proposto nas Ãltimas dÃcadas, este estudo consiste em uma investigaÃÃo empÃrica acerca dos determinantes dos investimentos pÃblicos nas administraÃÃes estaduais a partir de um painel de dados compreendendo o perÃodo de 2005 a 2008. Modelos economÃtricos em painel dinÃmico sÃo elaborados e estimados via MÃtodo Generalizado dos Momentos (MGM) para trÃs variÃveis consideradas como vias para o investimento pÃblico, quais sejam: investimento, gastos com pessoal e despesas de custeio. A robustez das estimativas permite inferir que: i) o ajuste fiscal dos Estados brasileiros fundamentou-se na ampliaÃÃo da carga tributÃria e na reduÃÃo dos investimentos pÃblicos; ii) o Ãltimo ano de mandato de governo, o investimento pÃblico defasado, o resultado primÃrio defasado e, principalmente, as receitas de operaÃÃo de crÃdito contribuem para a ampliaÃÃo do investimento pÃblico; iii) ajustes nos instrumentos fiscais utilizados para o controle das finanÃas pÃblicas dos Estados podem ajudar na reversÃo da trajetÃria de queda dos investimentos estaduais sem comprometer o equilÃbrio de suas finanÃas.

The study aims to contribute with the debate concerning the fiscal adjustment proposed in the last decades and consists in an empirical investigation about the determinants of public investment in of the Brazilian states from a panel of data spanning the period from 2005 to 2008. Dynamic panel econometric models by Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) are developed and estimated for three variables considered as routes for public investment: investment, payroll and costing expenses. The robustness of the estimates allow us to infer that: i) fiscal adjustment of Brazilian states was based upon expansion of the tax burden and the reduction of public investment, ii) the last year before new elections, the public investment and the primary result of the last periods and, mainly, credit revenues contribute to the expansion of public investment, iii) adjustments in the tax instruments used to keep public finances stable can help in order to reverse the downward trend of investment without compromising the statesâ fiscal balance.

Advisors/Committee Members: FabrÃcio Carneiro Linhares, Paulo RogÃrio Faustino Matos, Andrei Gomes Simonassi.

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O presente trabalho trata da criação e implementação da Lei de Responsabilidade Fiscal (LRF), inserindo-a no contexto das transformações do Estado no Brasil. A pesquisa desenvolvida teve o intuito de aprofundar a reflexão em torno desta questão, ajudando assim a revelar os elementos legitimadores da política de ajuste fiscal, que implica em não priorização dos gastos sociais e impedimento do avanço da descentralização e autonomia das subunidades nacionais. As políticas públicas são respostas do Estado às questões sociais e também mecanismos de legitimação da ação estatal. Estas políticas são obstaculizadas quando ocorre a implementação da LRF. Esta limitação na garantia das políticas públicas, ou políticas sociais, têm correlação com as determinações do exercício do poder e, portanto, com as relações entre as classes sociais na sociedade capitalista e sua presença na condução dos aparelhos estatais. Neste estudo demonstra-se que o Estado, a partir da relação orgânica com o capital, muda a sua organização e passa a ser reformado, momento este que assume um novo papel, uma nova conformação jurídicopolítica, com efeitos no plano local, precisamente na subunidade nacional que é o estado do Maranhão. O surgimento de uma exigência jurídica estatal é conseqüência do processo de reestruturação produtiva, da reação do trabalho e da ação de legitimação do Estado, quando este implementa as políticas públicas. A reforma do Estado brasileiro é justificada em face da crise fiscal que leva a adoção de medidas de ajuste fiscal. Demonstra-se que sempre foi instável a formação da república no Brasil, bem como o seu sistema federativo, e que as medidas de ajuste fiscal aprofundam uma centralização de poder no governo Central. Nesse sentido, o estado do Maranhão, a despeito de sua condição de fragilidade econômica, é protagonista na implementação do ajuste fiscal dos anos 90, adaptando-se ao advento da Lei de Responsabilidade Fiscal a partir do ano 2000. Conclui-se demonstrando que há uma priorização dos gastos com endividamento público em detrimento da execução das políticas públicas, principalmente as políticas sociais.

This work is about the creation and implementation of the Law of Fiscal Responsibility ("LRF", in brazilian portuguese and there forth mentioned as that), inserting it in the context of transformations of the State in Brazil. The aim of this research is the further reflection on this issue, thereby helping to prove the legitimacy of the political elements of fiscal adjustment, which implies no prioritization of social spending and preventing the progress of decentralization and autonomy of national units. Public policies are the States responses for the social issues and also mechanisms of legitimization of state action. These policies are hindered when occurs the LRF implementation. This guarantee s limitation of public or social policies are correlated with determinations of power s exercise and therefore the relations between social classes in capitalist society and its presence in the conduct of state apparatus.…

Advisors/Committee Members: Flávio Bezerra de Farias, Ilse Gomes Silva.

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Este trabalho discute o federalismo do ponto de vista de suas relações com o regime político democrático. Se o argumento de Alfred Stepan (1999) é de que o federalismo constrange as decisões do centro nacional e por isso seria anti-democrático, contrapõem-se uma visão consociativa, no qual o federalismo é visto como importante para integrar minorias dentro de sociedades eminentemente heterogêneas. A referência aqui é o trabalho de Arend Lijphart (2003). A democracia federativa brasileira é o campo de análise empírico, por meio de uma de suas instituições federativas, o Senado Federal. Examinamos os efeitos da desproporcionalidade desta casa com os da Câmara dos Deputados, a partir das possibilidades eventuais de vetos às propostas de emendas à Constituição. E a partir daí analisamos o governo de Fernando Henrique Cardoso (1995-2002), por causa de seu caráter reformista, através de emendas constitucionais, a maior parte delas com impacto federativo. E se dentre estas emendas, as de caráter fiscal são as mais recorrentes, pesquisamos o papel do Senado no processo de ajuste fiscal deste governo, primeiro com relação à renegociação das dívidas estaduais e em segundo nas votações nominais do Fundo Social de Emergência (FSE) e suas renovações. Com isso procuramos verificar se, como e em que situações o Senado atuaria em defesa dos interesses dos estados (e regiões) que representa ou cooperaria com os intereses do governo, por meio dos partidos políticos.

This work discusses federalism from the standpoint of its relationship with the democratic political regime. If the viewpoint of Alfred Stepan (1999) is that federalism constrains decisionmaking at the national center, thus becoming anti-democratic, a consociative view is opposed: federalism would be important for the integration of minorities within eminently heterogeneous societies. In this work, the reference will be the work of Arend Lijphart (2003). The Brazilian federative democracy is the empirical field of analysis, through its federative institutions, the Federal Senate. We examine the effects of the disproportionallity of that body in relation to the Chamber of Deputies, manifest in the eventual possibilities of vetoes to proposed amendments to the Constitution, and we analyze the administration of Fernando Henrique Cardoso (1995-2002), because of its reformist character, through constitutional amendments, most of them with federative impact. Since among those amendments, the fiscal-related ones are the most recurrent, we have researched the role of the Senate in the process of fiscal adjustment made by that administration, firstly in relation to the renegotiation of state-debts, and secondly in relation to nominal voting concerning Fundo Social de Emergência (FSE, or Emergency Social Fund) and its extensions. With that we have tried to verify whether, how and in which situations the Senate would be acting on behalf of the interest of the States (and regions) that the Senate represents, or whether it would cooperate with the interests of the administration,…

Advisors/Committee Members: Limongi, Fernando de Magalhaes Papaterra.

▼ In recent years, entry-level workers have faced with low-wage problem in Taiwan. Wage subsidy is one of the government's policies to address the problem. By applying a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, this paper analyzes the policy of government subsidy to entry-level jobs, shows that the output and entry-level workers' income increase in the short run. As the wage subsidy effect declines over time, the effects of fiscal adjustments dominate in later years. The model has the tax rate of nonentry-level workers as a fiscal adjustment instrument. Because of the higher tax rate, nonentry-level workers decrease their labor supply and investment, which lowers output to below the steady state level. Advisors/Committee Members: Shu-Chun Yang (committee member), Chih-Yu Yang (chair), Juin-Jen Chang (chair).

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This work was developed with the objective to analyze, ahead of the implantation of plus a plan of economic stability, the possibilities of the control of the Brazilian inflationary process. To understand these possibilities, one searched to after make a historical trajectory of the process the second half of the decade of 1980, emphasizing, superficially, the considered plans of stabilization before the implantation of the Real Plan, with objective to badly demonstrate to which the procedure of the economic plans in relation to one that it devastates the country. Working in this recital, it had an aiming of the present work in the errors and rightnesss of these plans, attempting against itself only to the inertial component, diagnosised as cause of the inflation in the period in analysis. Working in this recital, the three phases that had been primordial for the implantation of the Real Plan, had contributed for the aiming of the present work. The analysis of these two periods, of the 80 phase and second half decade of the Real Plan, had detached the importance of if getting the objective initially considered by this last one. In chapter III, it is demonstrated, superficially, some of the impacts in the Brazilian economy.

Este trabalho foi desenvolvido com o objetivo de analisar, diante da implantação de mais um plano de estabilidade econômica, as possibilidades do controle do processo inflacionário brasileiro. Para entender essas possibilidades, buscou-se fazer uma trajetória histórica do processo após a segunda metade da década de 1980, enfatizando, superficialmente, os planos de estabilização propostos antes da implantação do Plano Real, com objetivo de demonstrar qual o procedimento dos planos econômicos em relação a um mal que assola o país. Trabalhando nesta fundamentação, houve um direcionamento do presente trabalho nos erros e acertos destes planos, atentando-se apenas ao componente inercial, diagnosticado como causa da inflação no período em análise. Trabalhando nesta fundamentação, as três fases que foram primordiais para a implantação do Plano Real, contribuíram para o direcionamento do presente trabalho. A análise destes dois períodos, segunda metade da década de 80 e fases do Plano Real, destacaram a importância de se obter o objetivo inicialmente proposto por este último. No capítulo III, são demonstrados, superficialmente, alguns dos impactos na economia brasileira.

Advisors/Committee Members: Jorge Cláudio Cavalcante de Oliveira Lima.

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Mestrado em Economia Internacional e Estudos Europeus

Este TFM tem como objetivo analisar a versão original do Programa de Ajustamento Económico e Financeiro português e as suas sucessivas revisões ao longo do tempo. O enquadramento teórico pretende assim retomar a literatura relacionada com o multiplicador orçamental de modo a conseguir compreender a parte empírica deste documento, no qual se faz uma análise dos documentos relativos ao processo de consolidação das contas públicas. Inclui-se igualmente uma análise dos desequilíbrios estruturais e conjunturais da economia portuguesa, focalizando no comportamento do produto e do mercado de trabalho.

This document aims to analyse the original version of the Economic Adjustment Programme of Portugal and its subsequent revisions over time. The theoretical framework thus intends to resume the literature related to the fiscal multiplier in order to understand the empirical part of this paper, in which an analysis is made of the documents relating to the consolidation of the public accounts. It also includes an analysis of structural and cyclical economic imbalances of the Portuguese economy, focusing on the product behaviour and labour market.

Advisors/Committee Members: Lopes, João.

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In this dissertation, the experience of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania during the crisis in 2008-2010 is analysed. Its aim is to find out why the Baltic countries chose and were able to implement the strategy of “internal adjustment”, i.e. kept fixed exchange rates and achieved fiscal sustainability via fiscal consolidation. Furthermore, it asks why Estonia was able to handle the crisis most successfully. Based on the theories of currency crises and fiscal consolidation, a theoretical model is constructed. The empirical investigation relies on both qualitative and quantitative (statistical) methods. It is found in the dissertation that conventional theories cannot adequately explain the Baltic situation during the crisis. Therefore, non-conventional factors are investigated. The Baltic willingness to defend the fixed exchange rates can be attributed to certain economic factors (high flexibility and indebtedness in foreign currencies), continuity in economic policy, causal beliefs, and non-economic functions of fixed exchange rates. The implementation of a very large fiscal consolidation package was possible due to weak trade unions, a high degree of centralization, causal beliefs about appropriate economic policies, weak interest groups and lack of societal mobilization capacity. Estonia’s better performance was due to better informal institutions, namely a higher trust in government, which allowed Estonia to collect more taxes during the crisis than Latvia and Lithuania.

Disertacijoje nagrinėjama Estijos, Latvijos ir Lietuvos patirtis per ekonominę krizę 2008–2010 metais. Siekiama atsakyti, kodėl Baltijos šalys pasirinko ir sugebėjo įgyvendinti „vidinio prisitaikymo“ strategiją, t.y. išlaikė fiksuotą valiutos kursą bei taupymo būdu atkūrė fiskalinį tvarumą. Taip pat klausiama, kodėl Estija sugebėjo susitvarkyti su krize sėkmingiausiai. Remiantis valiutos krizių ir fiskalinės konsolidacijos teorijų įžvalgomis, disertacijoje konstruojamas vidinio prisitaikymo teorinis modelis. Empirinėje dalyje derinami kokybiniai ir kiekybiniai (statistiniai) metodai. Atskleidžiama, kad Baltijos valstybių situacijos adekvačiai negali paaiškinti vyraujančios politinės ekonomijos teorijos ir jų siūlomi veiksniai. Todėl atsižvelgiama į papildomus, nekonvencinius kintamuosius. Baltijos valstybių politikų norą išsaugoti fiksuotą valiutos kursą didino ekonominės struktūros ypatumai (lankstumas ir įsiskolinimas užsienio valiuta), ekonominės politikos tęstinumas, idėjiniai įsitikinimai, ne ekonominės fiksuoto valiutos kurso funkcijos. Itin didelę fiskalinės konsolidacijos programą pavyko įgyvendinti dėl silpnų profesinių sąjungų, didelės centralizacijos, vyraujančių idėjų apie tinkamą politiką, silpnų interesų grupių, menkos visuomenės mobilizacijos. Estijos didesnę sėkmę gali paaiškinti kokybiškesnės neformalios institucijos, ypač pasitikėjimas valdžia, dėl kurio šioje valstybėje per krizę mokestinės pajamos krito mažiau nei Latvijoje ir Lietuvoje.

Advisors/Committee Members: ČIČINSKAS, JONAS (Doctoral dissertation committee chair), PAULIKAS, VYGANDAS KAZIMIERAS (Doctoral dissertation committee member), RADŽVILAS, VYTAUTAS (Doctoral dissertation committee member), RAIPA, ALVYDAS (Doctoral dissertation committee member), RAMONAITĖ, AINĖ (Doctoral dissertation committee member), NAKROŠIS, VITALIS (Doctoral dissertation opponent), GREBLIAUSKAS, ARTŪRAS (Doctoral dissertation opponent).

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Disertacijoje nagrinėjama Estijos, Latvijos ir Lietuvos patirtis per ekonominę krizę 2008–2010 metais. Siekiama atsakyti, kodėl Baltijos šalys pasirinko ir sugebėjo įgyvendinti „vidinio prisitaikymo“ strategiją, t.y. išlaikė fiksuotą valiutos kursą bei taupymo būdu atkūrė fiskalinį tvarumą. Taip pat klausiama, kodėl Estija sugebėjo susitvarkyti su krize sėkmingiausiai. Remiantis valiutos krizių ir fiskalinės konsolidacijos teorijų įžvalgomis, disertacijoje konstruojamas vidinio prisitaikymo teorinis modelis. Empirinėje dalyje derinami kokybiniai ir kiekybiniai (statistiniai) metodai. Atskleidžiama, kad Baltijos valstybių situacijos adekvačiai negali paaiškinti vyraujančios politinės ekonomijos teorijos ir jų siūlomi veiksniai. Todėl atsižvelgiama į papildomus, nekonvencinius kintamuosius. Baltijos valstybių politikų norą išsaugoti fiksuotą valiutos kursą didino ekonominės struktūros ypatumai (lankstumas ir įsiskolinimas užsienio valiuta), ekonominės politikos tęstinumas, idėjiniai įsitikinimai, ne ekonominės fiksuoto valiutos kurso funkcijos. Itin didelę fiskalinės konsolidacijos programą pavyko įgyvendinti dėl silpnų profesinių sąjungų, didelės centralizacijos, vyraujančių idėjų apie tinkamą politiką, silpnų interesų grupių, menkos visuomenės mobilizacijos. Estijos didesnę sėkmę gali paaiškinti kokybiškesnės neformalios institucijos, ypač pasitikėjimas valdžia, dėl kurio šioje valstybėje per krizę mokestinės pajamos krito mažiau nei Latvijoje ir Lietuvoje.

In this dissertation, the experience of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania during the crisis in 2008-2010 is analysed. Its aim is to find out why the Baltic countries chose and were able to implement the strategy of “internal adjustment”, i.e. kept fixed exchange rates and achieved fiscal sustainability via fiscal consolidation. Furthermore, it asks why Estonia was able to handle the crisis most successfully. Based on the theories of currency crises and fiscal consolidation, a theoretical model is constructed. The empirical investigation relies on both qualitative and quantitative (statistical) methods. It is found in the dissertation that conventional theories cannot adequately explain the Baltic situation during the crisis. Therefore, non-conventional factors are investigated. The Baltic willingness to defend the fixed exchange rates can be attributed to certain economic factors (high flexibility and indebtedness in foreign currencies), continuity in economic policy, causal beliefs, and non-economic functions of fixed exchange rates. The implementation of a very large fiscal consolidation package was possible due to weak trade unions, a high degree of centralization, causal beliefs about appropriate economic policies, weak interest groups and lack of societal mobilization capacity. Estonia’s better performance was due to better informal institutions, namely a higher trust in government, which allowed Estonia to collect more taxes during the crisis than Latvia and Lithuania.

Advisors/Committee Members: ČIČINSKAS, JONAS (Doctoral dissertation committee chair), PAULIKAS, VYGANDAS KAZIMIERAS (Doctoral dissertation committee member), RADŽVILAS, VYTAUTAS (Doctoral dissertation committee member), RAIPA, ALVYDAS (Doctoral dissertation committee member), RAMONAITĖ, AINĖ (Doctoral dissertation committee member), NAKROŠIS, VITALIS (Doctoral dissertation opponent), GREBLIAUSKAS, ARTŪRAS (Doctoral dissertation opponent).

▼ The interest in the use of fiscal policy as an effective economic policy tool has been revived recently, since the global recession of 2008 hit the world. In spite of a large empirical literature, there remains substantial uncertainty about the size and even the direction of the effects of discretionary fiscal policy. This thesis seeks to investigate the macroeconomic effects of discretionary fiscal policy in the short term, highlighting several methodologies for identifying discretionary fiscal policy. In Chapters 2 and 3, we suggest a new instrument based on the narrative approach for identifying exogenous government spending shocks: natural disaster damages and the subsequent government emergency spending. While applying our methodology to the Korean and the U.S data, we find that our instrument is not only powerful but also superior to military build-ups used by most of the literature. The relief expenditure in the wake of natural disaster has several advantages such as the similarity in scope to general government activity and the easy applicability beyond the U.S. compared to military build-ups. In the analysis of Korean fiscal policy, using our narrative method and the Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model, we find that government spending shocks increase GDP, consumption, and real wage, which is in line with the New Keynesian model. We also find that the timing is crucial in identifying government spending shocks due to the anticipation effects of fiscal policy. Furthermore, while analyzing the U.S. fiscal policy both at the state as well as national level, we estimate two kinds of non-defense spending multipliers: federal (1.4~1.7) and state (1.5~2.5), which exceed the defense spending multiplier obtained in the literature using military building-ups. In Chapter 4, in regard to the study of effects of fiscal adjustment, we develop the approach based on changes in cyclically adjusted primary balance (CAPB) by including fluctuations of asset price in the CAPB measure and allowing for individual country heterogeneity in the definition of fiscal adjustment. Using our new CAPB in 20 OECD countries, we find that fiscal adjustments have contractionary effects on economic activity in the short term, which is consistent with the result based on the narrative approach. Nevertheless, our results suggest that fiscal adjustments that rely predominantly on spending cuts are less contractionary than those involving tax increases.

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Recently, most countries have experienced the burden of excessive debt and budget deficits due to factors such as excessive public spending and inadequate revenues. As these problems have led to unsustainable financial situations and macroeconomic instability, countries have focused on finding a lasting solution to confront these problems. This doctoral dissertation consists of four essays: Firstly, is mentioned an overall approach to the success of the fiscal adjustment programs, identifying four factors: the time of fiscal consolidation, the degree of openness of the economy, the institutional framework and the state of public finances of the country's economy over the last 5-6 years before the start of the crisis. In addition, the effectiveness of institutional fairness and party linkages in fiscal adjustment programs is theoretically and empirically examined. The analysis is based on panel data whereas the estimated model is based on a reaction function proposed by (Bohn, 1998). Our main conclusions show that the impact of fiscal austerity on GDP is positive and depends on the degree of opening of the economy, the institutional framework of the country and the state of the country's public finances in the last 5-6 years before the start of the crisis. Moreover, the "fair" fiscal adjustment programs and the institutions (political and budgetary) have a positive impact on budgetary performance. However, the effects of clientelism are a brake on reducing fiscal imbalances, debt and thus the success of fiscal adjustment programs. Our analysis has shown a clear variation in the political strategies of political parties in Greece and Portugal in terms of fiscal consolidation during the debt crisis. While the Portuguese parties have agreed on a number of fiscal constraints, in Greece the exact opposite is happened. Finally, it turns out that the crisis in Greece is the result not only of the international economic crisis, but also of the policies implemented by governments and the environment of clientelism of previous years.

Πρόσφατα, οι περισσότερες χώρες έχουν βιώσει την επιβάρυνση του υπερβολικού χρέους και των δημοσιονομικών ελλειμμάτων εξαιτίας παραγόντων όπως είναι οι υπερβολικές δημόσιες δαπάνες και τα ανεπαρκή έσοδα. Δεδομένου ότι αυτά τα προβλήματα οδήγησαν σε μη βιώσιμες δημοσιονομικές καταστάσεις και μακροοικονομική αστάθεια, οι χώρες έχουν επικεντρωθεί στην εξεύρεση μιας μόνιμης λύσης για την αντιμετώπιση αυτών των προβλημάτων. Η παρούσα διδακτορική διατριβή αποτελείται από τέσσερα δοκίμια: Αρχικά γίνεται αναφορά μιας συνολικής προσέγγισης όσον αφορά την επιτυχία των προγραμμάτων δημοσιονομικής προσαρμογής εντοπίζοντας τέσσερις παράγοντες: το χρονικό διάστημα της δημοσιονομικής εξυγίανσης, τον βαθμό ανοίγματος της οικονομίας, το θεσμικό πλαίσιο, καθώς και την κατάσταση των δημόσιων οικονομικών της χώρας τα τελευταία 5-6 χρόνια πριν την έναρξη της κρίσης. Επιπλέον, εξετάζεται θεωρητικά και εμπειρικά η αποτελεσματικότητα της δικαιοσύνης των θεσμών και των κομματικών-πελατειακών διασυνδέσεων στα…

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Mestrado em Economia Monetária e Financeira

O objetivo desta dissertação é o de estudar os erros na previsão do desemprego que estão presentes nos programas de ajustamento para a economia grega. O estudo começa por uma revisão teórica dos principais aspectos relacionados com as interacções entre a política monetária e fiscal na Zona Euro com especial atenção ao caso da Grécia. De seguida, utilizei duas metodologias para testar a performance das previsões feitas pela Troika: O modelo Vector Error Correcting (VEC) e o modelo Leontief Input-Output. Foi encontrada evidencia para o modelo econométrico subestimar o desemprego, como sugerido nas previsões da Troika, mas ainda assim com mais precisão quando comparado com as previsões apresentadas nos programas de ajustamento. Em contraste, o modelo IO tende a sobrestimar o desemprego para o mesmo período. Contudo, depois de ajustado para os dados da Organização para a Cooperação e Desenvolvimento Económico (OCDE), a sua performance é substancialmente melhorada. É possível concluir que tal boom no desemprego seria relativamente difícil de prever, especialmente através de simples técnicas econométricas, mas poderia ter sido melhor entendido através de uma análise sectorial como aquela que foi aplicada neste trabalho.

The aim of this dissertation is to study the unemployment errors present in the troika´s economic adjustment programs for the Greek economy. I start by reviewing theoretical aspects of the fiscal and monetary interactions in the European Monetary Union (EMU) and the particular case of Greece. Then, I use two methodologies to test the performance of troika?s economic adjustment programs: a Vector Error Correcting (VEC) model and the Leontief Input-Output (IO) model. I found evidence for the econometric model to underestimate unemployment, as troika's forecasts did, but with a slightly higher accuracy when compared to troika's programs. In contrast, the Input-Output application tends to overestimate the unemployment rate for the same period. However, after adjusting to the figures available from the Organization for Economic and Cooperation and Development (OECD), its performance is substantially improved. We conclude that such unemployment boom was relatively hard to predict, especially when using simple standard econometric techniques, but it could have been better assessed with an inter-sectoral analysis such as the one we apply in this work.

info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion

Advisors/Committee Members: Lopes, João Carlos.

▼ This dissertation is a theoretical and empirical examination of important issues in macro-public finance. I focus on the optimal capital income taxation under several situations different from the Chamley-Judd set up and fiscal adjustment in EU countries following a balance sheet approach. Chapter II presents that in an economy in which entrepreneurs, who own their businesses, can shift their income between different tax bases in order to lower their tax burden, the Chamley-Judd zero capital income taxation no longer holds. Government should impose positive taxes on capital income in order to reduce the excess burden of income shifting caused by the difference between the income tax rates, even in the steady state. Qualitatively, the elasticity of income shifting and the elasticity of substitution of the production technology are critical to determine the optimal tax rates on capital income in the steady state. Numerical computation demonstrates that the optimal capital income tax rate is substantially different from zero. Welfare improvements switching from the Chamley-Judd type policy to the optimal factor income taxation or consumption based taxes are also quantitatively examined. Chapter III quantitatively and qualitatively examines the optimal income tax policies with land in the steady state. The derived formula shows that the optimal capital income tax rate depends on the marginal distortion of capital income taxation, the share of after-tax land rents, and the elasticity of substitution of the production technology. However, numerical computation suggests that although the optimal capital income tax rate in the steady state is qualitatively different from zero, it is very close to zero. The zero capital income taxation can still be a goal of tax reforms in the long run. Chapter IV, given the fact that several European Union (EU) countries have recently implemented or are envisaging fiscal operations which improve budgetary figures but have no structural impact on government finances, evaluates some of these measures using a balance sheet approach, especially, the degree to which reductions in government debt in EU countries has been accompanied by a decumulation of government assets. In the run-up to Maastricht, there is a strong correlation between changes in government liabilities and government assets and larger declines in government assets in countries from higher public debt levels. Advisors/Committee Members: Jr., James R. Hines, (advisor).

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1. Può un Modello DSGE spiegare una disinflazione costosa? Questo lavoro mostra che un modello DSGE non è in grado di spiegare una disinflazione costosa con indicizzazione parziale e bassa dei prezzi e dei salari. Il modello invece è in grado di replicare una disinflazione recessiva sostituendo il meccanismo di modellizazione delle rigidità nominali di Calvo (1983) con quello di Rotemberg (1982). 2. Disinflazione e Diseguaglianza in un Modello Monetario DSGE: Un’Analisi di Welfare Questo lavoro analizza gli effetti redistributivi di una politica disinflazionistica in un modello DSGE con Partecipazione Limitata ai Mercati degli Assets. Due sono i meccanismi che guidano a distribuzione del consumo e del reddito: il markup delle imprese e il cosiddetto vincolo cash in advance. I risultati suggeriscono che la disinflazione aumenta inequivocabilmente la diseguaglianza con il meccanismo di Rotemberg. Invece con il meccanismo di Calvo questo effetto viene ottenuto soltanto se le imprese non sono costrette ad indebitarsi per finanziare il fattore lavoro. 3. Consolidamento Fiscale e Consumatori Rule of Thumb Questo lavoro simula un esperimento di consolidamento fiscale in un modello DSGE con partecipazione limitata ai mercati degli assets. I risultati mostrano che durante un processo di consolidamento fiscale riduzioni temporanee delle tasse o aumenti temporanei di transfers consentono sia di ridurre il debito che stimolare il consumo.

1. Can a DSGE Model Explain a Costly Disinflation? This paper shows that a medium scale DSGE model fails to explain a costly disinflation with low and partial indexation of prices and wages. Alternatively to Calvo (1982) price setting, with the Rotemberg (1982) framework the model can replicate a recessionary disinflation for any indexation degree. 2. Disinflation and Inequality in a DSGE Monetary Model: A Welfare Analysis This paper investigates the redistributive effects of a disinflation experiment in a standard DSGE model with Limited Asset Market Participation. There are two key mechanisms driving consumption and income distribution: firms’ markup and the cash in advance channel. Results show that disinflation unambiguously increases inequality under Rotemberg. Under Calvo this effect only obtains if the cash in advance doesn’t bind firms ability to finance their working capital. 3. Fiscal Consolidation and Rule of Thumb Consumers: Gain With or Without Pain? This paper simulates a fiscal consolidation in a medium scale DSGE model augmented with Limited Asset Market Participation. Results show that during the consolidation process temporary tax reductions or temporary transfer increases allow to both reduce public debt and boost consumption. A countercyclical monetary policy is an effective complement to fiscal policy as stabilization tool.

Advisors/Committee Members: FEMMINIS, GIANLUCA, TIRELLI, PATRIZIO.

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Les études juridiques portant sur les Finances publiques africaines n’abordent que très rarement les questions depolitiques budgétaires. Le caractère économique de la matière n’y est sans doute pas étranger. Or, la constitution d’espacesd’intégration économique entre Etats, partageant une même monnaie, conduit le droit, notamment communautaire à s’emparerdes questions de politiques budgétaires. Tout laxisme budgétaire de la part d’un Etat, se répercute sur les autres Etats membreset sur la stabilité de l’Union monétaire. Le renforcement de l’intégration économique, en Afrique de l’ouest, avec le TraitéUEMOA de 1994, a ainsi été accompagné de la mise en place d’un dispositif de convergence des politiques budgétaires desEtats membres. Celui-ci consiste, à travers un cadre institutionnel communautaire, à surveiller le respect par les Etats, decertains critères essentiellement budgétaires. La convergence des politiques budgétaires renvoie donc à la discipline budgétairecommune que devront respecter les Etats membres de la zone UEMOA. L’instauration d’un tel dispositif, aboutitnécessairement sur le plan normatif, à la transformation du droit public financier des Etats. Le respect de la discipline budgétairecommunautaire passe par une autodiscipline que les Etats doivent s’imposer dans la gestion de leur Finances publiques. Cenouveau pouvoir communautaire influence donc les Finances nationales au travers de leur contenu, choix de politiquespubliques comme de techniques de gestion. L’objectif de cette étude est de s’intéresser à l’un des facteurs déterminants destransformations des systèmes nationaux de gestion des Finances publiques dans les Etats membres de la zone UEMOA.

Legal studies on African Public Finance rarely address fiscal policy issues. The economic nature of this subject isprobably the reason. Yet the creation of economic integration space between states sharing the same currency led the law,including community law, to take a firm hold on fiscal policy issues. Any fiscal laxity from a state has repercussions on theothers and the stability of the monetary Union. The strengthening of economic integration, in west Africa, with the WAEMUTreaty of 1994 has been accompanied by the setting up of a converging measures of budgetary policies of states members. This consists in monitoring, through a community institutional framework, compliance by states with some criteria, mainlybudgetary. The convergence of budgetary policies thus refers to common budgetary discipline to be observed by the statesmembers of the WAEMU area. The establishment of such measures necessarily ends at the normative level by thetransformation of public finance law of states. The compliance with community budget discipline goes through self-discipline that states must self-impose in the management of their public finances. This new community power has an effect on national finance through their content, their public policy choices and management techniques. The aim of this study is to take an interest in one of the determining transformations…

Advisors/Committee Members: Duprat, Jean-Pierre (thesis director), Yonaba, Salif (thesis director).

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La question du développement inclusif dans les pays en développement est au cœur de cette thèse. Cette dernière s'articule autour de quatre chapitres sur les questions de politique fiscale et les questions liées à la croissance inclusive. Le chapitre 1 explore comment la politique fiscale de l’Etat affecte l'inclusivité de la croissance dans les pays en développement. Nous observons que la politique fiscale affecte la croissance inclusive de manière significative si et seulement si les pays ont de fortes qualités institutionnelles. En outre, notre résultat montre qu'il existe un seuil optimal au-delà duquel toute augmentation du taux d'imposition négativement la croissance inclusive. Le chapitre 2 examine les effets des composantes des dépenses publiques sur l'équité et la croissance dans les pays d’Afrique subsaharienne, notamment s'il est possible de concevoir des dépenses publiques en vue de promouvoir une société plus équitable sans sacrifier la croissance économique. Notre étude a permis de montrer que l’investissement en infrastructure a contribué à une croissance plus inclusive en Afrique subsaharienne que d'autres dépenses publiques. Ces résultats suggèrent que des programmes temporaires et bien ciblés devraient être mis en place pour aider ceux qui sont laissés pour compte par le processus de croissance. Le chapitre 3 cherche à savoir si les problèmes d’inégalités de revenus se sont posés ou non dans les périodes d'ajustement budgétaire en Côte d'Ivoire au cours de la période 1980-2014. Nos résultats montrent une amélioration de la performance de croissance après les épisodes de consolidation budgétaire, mais aussi des diminutions de l'écart de revenu dans les périodes suivantes les années d’ajustements budgétaires. Enfin, le chapitre 4 évalue la crédibilité des prévisions budgétaires et leurs effets sur le bien-être social dans les pays de la CEMAC et de l'UEMOA. Nous sommes aboutis aux résultats que l'inefficacité des prévisions budgétaires se produit dans la plupart des cas parce que les erreurs de prévisions sont proportionnelles à la prévision elle-même, mais aussi parce que les erreurs passées sont répétées dans le temps. En outre, une partie des erreurs de prévision des recettes peut s'expliquer par des chocs aléatoires survenus dans l'économie. Par conséquent, ces erreurs dans les prévisions de revenus considérées comme des chocs de politique budgétaire ont un effet négatif sur la croissance inclusive.

The issue of inclusive development in developing countries is at the heart of this thesis. The latter revolves around four chapters on fiscal policy issues and inclusive growth-related matters. Chapter 1 explores how government tax policy affects the inclusiveness of growth in developing countries. Evidence is shown that tax policy affects significantly inclusive growth if and only if the countries have a strong institution quality like low corruption and a good bureaucratic policy. In addition, our result shows that there is an optimal tax beyond which, any increase in the personal income tax rate…

Advisors/Committee Members: Brun, Jean-François (thesis director), Ballo, Zié (thesis director).

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Conventional wisdom is that fiscal policy at the regional level is ineffective. Recent concern about stability of bond-financed fiscal policy imposes an additional constraint on the effectiveness of interregional fiscal policy. In the conventional macroeconomic model, regional public sectors are ignored, or are at most a subset of the national model. Fiscal and financial interrelationships among different levels of government have not been investigated thoroughly in the literature. The purpose of this dissertation is to provide a theoretical framework for the analysis of interregional fiscal policy. We argue that all government budget constraints must be explicitly included in the model, and regions become the major building blocks of the system. Stability of the system then defends on the fiscal and financial interrelationships among different levels of government. We examine a once-and-for-all fiscal policy change in the interregional model with and without the federal sector. The simulated results based on an acceptable range of parameter values show that the system cannot generate a stable long-run equilibrium. At best, a quasi-equilibrium is attainable in that only the overall government budget constraint is satisfied. A once-and-for-all policy change is not only irrelevant in reality since public sectors react to actual economic situations, but also becomes a source of instability in an interregional model. The final version of the interregional model incorporates an endogenous fiscal policy. Government expenditure becomes an endogenous variable and fiscal policies are target-oriented. The income level and balanced-budget are the main targets. A system of government expenditure reaction functions is built into the model with each governnent adopting an active fiscal policy in order to achieve income and balanced-budget targets. The public sector adjusts its fiscal policy according to the last period' s economic situation. The extent of these government expenditure changes is governed by the target-adjustment parameters. Each government has its own priority or objective in determining the target-adjustment parameter values. The simulated results show that the interregional model can generate a stable long-run equilibrium, regardless of the mode of federal financing policy. The effectiveness of an active fiscal policy and the critical limits of these target-adjustment parameters are investigated. Of prime importance is the finding that an independent regional fiscal policy cannot generate a stable long-run equilibrium. Only when all governments cooperate actively in fiscal managanent can the system achieve the targets. Thus, the final version of the interregional model not only rejects independent regional fiscal policies, but requires coordination and cooperation among all governments in devising a viable fiscal policy. Our simulation findings therefore strengthen the case for fiscal federalism.

Thesis

Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)

Advisors/Committee Members: Johnson, J.A., Economics.

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Depuis son accession à l’indépendance, le Burkina Faso est à la recherche d’une politique publique de développement qui lui permette de sortir de son état de « sous-développement ». La politique budgétaire a, de ce fait, été instituée en catalyseur d’un développement économique et social durable. Mais les errements budgétaires des Gouvernements qui se sont succédé ont plutôt entraîné une triple crise : une crise de la dette, une crise des déficits publics et une crise économique. A compter des années 1990, le FMI et la Banque Mondiale sont intervenus, aux côtés des autorités burkinabé, dans le cadre d’une double assistance technique et financière afin de réformer, structurellement, la politique budgétaire. Cette intervention va s’installer durablement dans la politique interne burkinabé. En deux décennies, la politique des finances sera orientée au gré de la doctrine budgétaire et des priorités définies par le FMI et la Banque Mondiale : les programmes d’ajustement structurel, puis la politique de lutte contre la pauvreté vont tenter de réaliser les objectifs de croissance économique, puis de croissance économique et sociale, grâce à une réforme de la politique de dépenses budgétaires et de la politique de ressources budgétaires. Seulement, quelque soit l’objectif pris en considération, les résultats atteints restent bien éloignés des résultats escomptés en termes de restructuration de la dette, des dépenses et des ressources budgétaires. Cette dynamique de réformes permet néanmoins de s’interroger, au vu des expériences passées, sur le rôle à attribuer à l’Etat au Burkina Faso, à la politique budgétaire, au FMI et à la Banque Mondiale, aux institutions communautaires ouest-africaines dans le processus de développement que le Burkina Faso doit nécessairement relancer, afin que ces décennies de réformes ne soient pas considérées comme inutiles.

Since its independence, Burkina Faso is seeking public policy development that allows him to leave his state of "underdevelopment". Fiscal policy has, therefore, been established as a catalyst for sustainable economic and social development. But mistakes budget successive Governments have instead led to a triple crisis: a debt crisis, a crisis of deficits and an economic crisis. Beginning in the 1990s, the IMF and the World Bank intervened alongside Burkinabe authorities, within a double technical and financial assistance to reform structurally fiscal policy. This intervention will settle permanently in the internal politics of Burkina Faso. In two decades, finance policy will be geared to suit the budget doctrine and priorities defined by the IMF and the World Bank: the structural adjustment programs and the political fight against poverty will try to achieve the objectives of economic growth, and economic growth and social reform through policy and budgetary spending policy of budgetary resources. But whatever the goal under consideration, the results achieved are far removed from the expected results in terms of debt restructuring, expenditure and budgetary resources.…

Advisors/Committee Members: Albert, Jean-Luc (thesis director).

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Este artigo tem como objetivo verificar se há assimetria na rigidez de preços e de salários na economia brasileira; ou seja, se os agentes da economia são mais rígidos para baixo ou para cima para ajustarem seus preços e salários. Além disso, realiza-se a análise dos efeitos da política monetária e fiscal na dinâmica da economia. Para isso, utiliza-se um modelo Dinâmico Estocástico de Equilíbrio Geral (DSGE) não linear com custos de ajustamento assimétricos de preços e de salários com base no trabalho de Aruoba, Bocola e Schorfheide (2013). Esse modelo pode gerar rigidez de preços e de salários para baixo (ou para cima) que podem gerar não linearidades fortes. Diante da não linearidade gerada por esses aspectos, o modelo é solucionado através de um método de solução não linear e os seus parâmetros são estimados com a ajuda do Filtro de Partículas. O resultado encontrado é que tanto os preços quanto os salários nominais são mais rígidos para baixo e essas assimetrias na rigidez influenciam a dinâmica da economia quando esta sofre choques de política monetária e fiscal.

The objective of this article is to verify if there is asymmetry in the rigidity of prices and wages for the Brazilian economy; i.e. if the economic agents are more rigid downward or upward when adjusting their prices and wages. In addition, it performs the analysis of the effects of monetary and fiscal policy in the dynamics of the economy. For this, it uses a nonlinear model of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) with asymmetric adjustment costs in prices and wages based on the work of Aruoba, Bocola and Schorfheide (2013). This model can generate prices and wages rigidity downward (or upward) that can produce strong nonlinearities. Considering the non-linearity generated by these aspects, the model is solved through a non-linear solution method and its parameters are estimated with the help of Particle Filter. The obtained result is that both prices and nominal wages are more rigid downwards and these asymmetries in rigidity influence the dynamics of the economy when it suffers shocks from monetary and fiscal policies.

Advisors/Committee Members: Portugal, Marcelo Savino.