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1. Bolzan, Daiane Deponti. Ciclos pol?tico-econ?micos e a elei??o presidencial brasileira de 2014.

Degree: 2016, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio Grande do Sul

Submitted by Caroline Xavier ([email protected]) on 2017-05-26T18:11:51Z No. of bitstreams: 1 DIS_DAIANE_DEPONTI_BOLZAN_COMPLETO.pdf: 1515583 bytes, checksum: 92748a7191db741b0e32e26c59cc1d85 (MD5)

Made available in DSpace on 2017-05-26T18:11:51Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 DIS_DAIANE_DEPONTI_BOLZAN_COMPLETO.pdf: 1515583 bytes, checksum: 92748a7191db741b0e32e26c59cc1d85 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-08-29

Coordena??o de Aperfei?oamento de Pessoal de N?vel Superior - CAPES

Funda??o de Amparo ? Pesquisa do Estado do Rio Grande do Sul (FAPERGS)

This dissertation deals with the re-election of President Dilma in 2014 in the light of models of economic cycles incorporating federalism as an analytical element to include budgetary and voluntary transfers to municipalities. Through a Tobit model, we seek to establish whether there were changes in transfers to municipalities able to influence the vote of the government candidate. It analyzes also the ?Bolsa Fam?lia? program (PBF), regional differences, the relationship between the Workers' Party (Partido dos Trabalhadores ? PT) and other parties of the ruling coalition and other sociodemographic variables impacted the vote on the candidate. As a result, the current transfers of the federal government positively impact the vote on the candidate while multigovernamentals transfers has an inverse relationship with the vote. Other important results concerning the impact of PBF in the vote of the chairman and indicates that the influence caused by the program is greatly reduced. Similarly, the relationship between the mayors and governors of the main ruling party and the other coalition parties also have no major impact on the vote on the candidate. The variables that were most important in the analysis of the candidate's vote was the vote in the 2010 election, indicating the continuation of an electoral base of the PT and the HDI showed a negative relationship with the vote on the candidate.

A presente disserta??o trata da reelei??o da Presidente Dilma no ano de 2014 ? luz dos modelos de ciclos pol?tico-econ?mico incorporando o federalismo como elemento de an?lise ao incluir as transfer?ncias or?ament?rias e volunt?rias aos munic?pios. Por meio de um modelo Tobit, procura-se estabelecer se houveram altera??es nas transfer?ncias aos munic?pios capazes de influenciar a vota??o da candidata governista. Analisa-se tamb?m se o Programa Bolsa Fam?lia, as diferen?as regionais, a rela??o entre o Partido dos Trabalhadores e os demais partidos da coliga??o governista e outras vari?veis s?cio demogr?ficas impactaram na vota??o da candidata. Obteve-se como resultado que as transfer?ncias correntes da Uni?o impactam positivamente na vota??o da candidata enquanto que as transfer?ncias multigovernamentais tem rela??o inversa com a vota??o. Outros resultados importantes dizem respeito ao impacto do PBF na vota??o da presidente e indica que a influ?ncia causada pelo programa ? bastante reduzida. Da mesma forma, a rela??o entre o prefeitos e governadores do principal…

Advisors/Committee Members: Fran?a, Marco Tulio Aniceto.

Subjects/Keywords: Ciclos Pol?tico-Eleitorais; Elei??es Presidenciais; Elei??es no Brasil; Transfer?ncias Intergovernamentais; Transfer?ncias da Uni?o; CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA

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APA (6th Edition):

Bolzan, D. D. (2016). Ciclos pol?tico-econ?micos e a elei??o presidencial brasileira de 2014. (Masters Thesis). Pontifical Catholic University of Rio Grande do Sul. Retrieved from http://tede2.pucrs.br/tede2/handle/tede/7311

Chicago Manual of Style (16th Edition):

Bolzan, Daiane Deponti. “Ciclos pol?tico-econ?micos e a elei??o presidencial brasileira de 2014.” 2016. Masters Thesis, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio Grande do Sul. Accessed May 08, 2021. http://tede2.pucrs.br/tede2/handle/tede/7311.

MLA Handbook (7th Edition):

Bolzan, Daiane Deponti. “Ciclos pol?tico-econ?micos e a elei??o presidencial brasileira de 2014.” 2016. Web. 08 May 2021.

Vancouver:

Bolzan DD. Ciclos pol?tico-econ?micos e a elei??o presidencial brasileira de 2014. [Internet] [Masters thesis]. Pontifical Catholic University of Rio Grande do Sul; 2016. [cited 2021 May 08]. Available from: http://tede2.pucrs.br/tede2/handle/tede/7311.

Council of Science Editors:

Bolzan DD. Ciclos pol?tico-econ?micos e a elei??o presidencial brasileira de 2014. [Masters Thesis]. Pontifical Catholic University of Rio Grande do Sul; 2016. Available from: http://tede2.pucrs.br/tede2/handle/tede/7311

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