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You searched for subject:(Illusion of validity). Showing records 1 – 2 of 2 total matches.

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Universidade do Rio Grande do Sul

1. Frasson, Álvaro Salgado. O Value at Risk e a ilusão de proteção : do risco moral ao Black Swan.

Degree: 2015, Universidade do Rio Grande do Sul

A pesquisa traz uma crítica à teoria moderna de finanças em relação à política de gestão de risco, especificamente sobre o Value at Risk, e como ela afeta o risco na economia. O trabalho propõe uma discussão comportamental da ineficácia do VaR e como este tipo de informação pode ser ruim para a economia, por refletir no problema do moral hazard (risco moral) para os gestores, baseados na ilusão de compreensão, ilusão de validade e de habilidade. A dissertação conclui que,ao superestimar a informação do VaR, os agentes alteram seu comportamento para tomar decisão e, com este risco moral, podem gerar o problema dos black swans (cisnes negros).

The research brings a critique of modern finance theory in relation to risk management policy, specifically on the Value at Risk, and how this affects the risk in the economy. The paper proposes a behavioral discussion of VaR ineffectiveness and how such information may be bad in the economy, for reflecting on the moral hazard problem for managers, based on the illusion of understanding, illusion of validity and ability. The dissertation concludes that, to overestimate VaR information, the agents change their behavior to take this decision and, this moral hazard, can generate the black swans.

Advisors/Committee Members: Lagemann, Eugenio.

Subjects/Keywords: Tomada de decisão; Value at risk; Decision making; Risco financeiro; Behavioral discussion; Moral hazard; Illusion of understanding; Illusion of validity; Black swans

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APA · Chicago · MLA · Vancouver · CSE | Export to Zotero / EndNote / Reference Manager

APA (6th Edition):

Frasson, . S. (2015). O Value at Risk e a ilusão de proteção : do risco moral ao Black Swan. (Thesis). Universidade do Rio Grande do Sul. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/10183/147476

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Chicago Manual of Style (16th Edition):

Frasson, Álvaro Salgado. “O Value at Risk e a ilusão de proteção : do risco moral ao Black Swan.” 2015. Thesis, Universidade do Rio Grande do Sul. Accessed January 19, 2020. http://hdl.handle.net/10183/147476.

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

MLA Handbook (7th Edition):

Frasson, Álvaro Salgado. “O Value at Risk e a ilusão de proteção : do risco moral ao Black Swan.” 2015. Web. 19 Jan 2020.

Vancouver:

Frasson S. O Value at Risk e a ilusão de proteção : do risco moral ao Black Swan. [Internet] [Thesis]. Universidade do Rio Grande do Sul; 2015. [cited 2020 Jan 19]. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/10183/147476.

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Council of Science Editors:

Frasson S. O Value at Risk e a ilusão de proteção : do risco moral ao Black Swan. [Thesis]. Universidade do Rio Grande do Sul; 2015. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/10183/147476

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation


University of North Texas

2. Alkhars, Mohammed. Decision Makers’ Cognitive Biases in Operations Management: An Experimental Study.

Degree: 2016, University of North Texas

Behavioral operations management (BOM) has gained popularity in the last two decades. The main theme in this new stream of research is to include the human behavior in Operations Management (OM) models to increase the effectiveness of such models. BOM is classified into 4 areas: cognitive psychology, social psychology, group dynamics and system dynamics (Bendoly et al. 2010). This dissertation will focus on the first class, namely cognitive psychology. Cognitive psychology is further classified into heuristics and biases. Tversky and Kahneman (1974) discussed 3 heuristics and 13 cognitive biases that usually face decision makers. This dissertation is going to study 6 cognitive biases under the representativeness heuristic. The model in this dissertation states that cognitive reflection of the individual (Frederick 2005) and training about cognitive biases in the form of warning (Kaufmann and Michel 2009) will help decisions’ makers make less biased decisions. The 6 cognitive biases investigated in this dissertation are insensitivity to prior probability, insensitivity to sample size, misconception of chance, insensitivity to predictability, the illusion of validity and misconception of regression. 6 scenarios in OM contexts have been used in this study. Each scenario corresponds to one cognitive bias. Experimental design has been used as the research tool. To see the impact of training, one group of the participants received the scenarios without training and the other group received them with training. The training consists of a brief description of the cognitive bias as well as an example of the cognitive bias. Cognitive reflection is operationalized using cognitive reflection test (CRT). The survey was distributed to students at University of North Texas (UNT). Logistic regression has been employed to analyze data. The research shows that participants show the cognitive biases proposed by Tversky and Kahneman. Moreover, CRT is significant factor to predict the cognitive bias in two scenarios. Finally, providing training in terms of warning helps participants to make more rational decisions in 4 scenarios. This means that although cognitive biases are inherent in the mind of people, management of corporations has the tool to educate its managers and professionals about such biases which helps companies make more rational decisions. Advisors/Committee Members: Pavur, Robert, Evangelopoulos, Nicholas, Kulkarn, Shailesh, Cooper, Danielle.

Subjects/Keywords: Behavioral Operations Management (BOM); Cognitive Biases; Representativeness; Heuristic; Insensitivity to Prior Probability Bias; Insensitivity to Sample Size Bias; Misconception of Chance; Insensitivity to Predictability; Illusion of Validity; Misconception of Regression; Cognitive Reflection; Debiasing Strategies; Business Administration, Management

Record DetailsSimilar RecordsGoogle PlusoneFacebookTwitterCiteULikeMendeleyreddit

APA · Chicago · MLA · Vancouver · CSE | Export to Zotero / EndNote / Reference Manager

APA (6th Edition):

Alkhars, M. (2016). Decision Makers’ Cognitive Biases in Operations Management: An Experimental Study. (Thesis). University of North Texas. Retrieved from https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc849675/

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Chicago Manual of Style (16th Edition):

Alkhars, Mohammed. “Decision Makers’ Cognitive Biases in Operations Management: An Experimental Study.” 2016. Thesis, University of North Texas. Accessed January 19, 2020. https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc849675/.

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

MLA Handbook (7th Edition):

Alkhars, Mohammed. “Decision Makers’ Cognitive Biases in Operations Management: An Experimental Study.” 2016. Web. 19 Jan 2020.

Vancouver:

Alkhars M. Decision Makers’ Cognitive Biases in Operations Management: An Experimental Study. [Internet] [Thesis]. University of North Texas; 2016. [cited 2020 Jan 19]. Available from: https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc849675/.

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Council of Science Editors:

Alkhars M. Decision Makers’ Cognitive Biases in Operations Management: An Experimental Study. [Thesis]. University of North Texas; 2016. Available from: https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc849675/

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

.