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University of Hawaii – Manoa
1.
Shimokobe, Akira.
Diagnostics of tropical cyclogenesis in four operational global NWP models : case studies for typhoons Megi (2010) and Jelawat (2012).
Degree: 2015, University of Hawaii – Manoa
URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10125/100367 
► M.S. University of Hawaii at Manoa 2014.
This study aims to elucidate why some operational global models can predict TC genesis successfully, while others cannot…
(more)
▼ M.S. University of Hawaii at Manoa 2014.
This study aims to elucidate why some operational global models can predict TC genesis successfully, while others cannot by conducting two case studies for Typhoons Megi (2010) and Jelawat (2012). The archived data of the global model forecasts of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and United Kingdom Met O ce (UKMO) are analyzed and compared. For Megi (2010), the ECMWF model showed the best skill in predicting the genesis with the longest leading time. For Jelawat (2012), the NCEP model was the best among the four models.
In order to differentiate the developing and non-developing systems in the forecast fields, a new index, called GPIOWZ is introduced in this study. It is based on the original Genesis Potential Index (GPI) proposed by Emanuel and Nolan (2004), and modified using the Okubo-Weiss-Zeta (OWZ) parameter (Tory et al. 2013) instead of the absolute vorticity in order to detect the rotational component of vorticity associated with a disturbance. The results show that the GPIOWZ is a good indicator of the developing and non-developing systems. The failed forecasts tend to show a smaller OWZ parameter, lower relative humidity (RH) in the mid-troposphere, stronger vertical wind shear (VWS) and/or weaker maximum potential intensity (MPI). The advantage of using the new GPIOWZ index is that sensitivity experiments can be conducted to identify which parameter(s) contribute negatively to the index and thus produce a negative e ect on the failed genesis forecasts. Results from our limited sensitivity experiments indicate that the parameters with negative effects vary from model to model and with different forecasts.
In addition to the GPIOWZ, the comparison of convective available potential energy (CAPE) and the vertical overlapping of the OWZ parameter at 850 hPa and 500 hPa were conducted. The failed forecasts tend to show higher CAPE than the successful forecasts for Megi, suggesting that the convective scheme cannot release the CAPE well in the failed forecasts (although this is less systematic for Jelawat). The successful forecasts tend to show larger vertical overlapping regions of the OWZ parameter, but some failed forecasts also show large overlapping area, indicating that the environmental conditions are also important. The difference in the vertical overlapping grid numbers of the OWZ parameter between the failed and successful forecasts is model dependent. Insights into the model improvements and the potential extension of the GPIOWZ are briefly discussed.
Subjects/Keywords: forecast fields
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APA (6th Edition):
Shimokobe, A. (2015). Diagnostics of tropical cyclogenesis in four operational global NWP models : case studies for typhoons Megi (2010) and Jelawat (2012). (Thesis). University of Hawaii – Manoa. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/10125/100367
Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation
Chicago Manual of Style (16th Edition):
Shimokobe, Akira. “Diagnostics of tropical cyclogenesis in four operational global NWP models : case studies for typhoons Megi (2010) and Jelawat (2012).” 2015. Thesis, University of Hawaii – Manoa. Accessed March 05, 2021.
http://hdl.handle.net/10125/100367.
Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation
MLA Handbook (7th Edition):
Shimokobe, Akira. “Diagnostics of tropical cyclogenesis in four operational global NWP models : case studies for typhoons Megi (2010) and Jelawat (2012).” 2015. Web. 05 Mar 2021.
Vancouver:
Shimokobe A. Diagnostics of tropical cyclogenesis in four operational global NWP models : case studies for typhoons Megi (2010) and Jelawat (2012). [Internet] [Thesis]. University of Hawaii – Manoa; 2015. [cited 2021 Mar 05].
Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/10125/100367.
Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation
Council of Science Editors:
Shimokobe A. Diagnostics of tropical cyclogenesis in four operational global NWP models : case studies for typhoons Megi (2010) and Jelawat (2012). [Thesis]. University of Hawaii – Manoa; 2015. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/10125/100367
Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation
Universidade Nova
2.
António, Bruno Alexandre Zeverino.
SAS Institute pre-sales internship : internship report.
Degree: 2017, Universidade Nova
URL: http://www.rcaap.pt/detail.jsp?id=oai:run.unl.pt:10362/19999
► The present document describes the work developed during the six months internship at SAS® Institute Inc.. During the internship, the intern provided support to the…
(more)
▼ The present document describes the work developed during the six months internship at SAS® Institute Inc.. During the internship, the intern provided support to the Pre-Sales department by integrating the analytic team. The intern received access to an extensive selection of courses designed to introduce the core technologies and present the analytical tools developed by SAS®. He was later integrated in a team working in a proof of concept dedicated to showcase the
forecast capability of SAS®
Forecast Server in the beverage industry.
Advisors/Committee Members: Neto, Miguel de Castro, Sousa, Simone da Costa.
Subjects/Keywords: Forecast; Demand Planning; SAS® Forecast Server
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APA (6th Edition):
António, B. A. Z. (2017). SAS Institute pre-sales internship : internship report. (Thesis). Universidade Nova. Retrieved from http://www.rcaap.pt/detail.jsp?id=oai:run.unl.pt:10362/19999
Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation
Chicago Manual of Style (16th Edition):
António, Bruno Alexandre Zeverino. “SAS Institute pre-sales internship : internship report.” 2017. Thesis, Universidade Nova. Accessed March 05, 2021.
http://www.rcaap.pt/detail.jsp?id=oai:run.unl.pt:10362/19999.
Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation
MLA Handbook (7th Edition):
António, Bruno Alexandre Zeverino. “SAS Institute pre-sales internship : internship report.” 2017. Web. 05 Mar 2021.
Vancouver:
António BAZ. SAS Institute pre-sales internship : internship report. [Internet] [Thesis]. Universidade Nova; 2017. [cited 2021 Mar 05].
Available from: http://www.rcaap.pt/detail.jsp?id=oai:run.unl.pt:10362/19999.
Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation
Council of Science Editors:
António BAZ. SAS Institute pre-sales internship : internship report. [Thesis]. Universidade Nova; 2017. Available from: http://www.rcaap.pt/detail.jsp?id=oai:run.unl.pt:10362/19999
Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation
Penn State University
3.
Schneider, Anna Irene.
Use of Spatial Statistics in Precipitation Climatology and Model Evaluation.
Degree: 2015, Penn State University
URL: https://submit-etda.libraries.psu.edu/catalog/24779
► A quantitative technique is developed which distinguishes different precipitation structures based on a small set of spatial statistics of the mesoscale reflectivity field. These spatial…
(more)
▼ A quantitative technique is developed which distinguishes different precipitation structures based on a small set of spatial statistics of the mesoscale reflectivity field. These spatial statistics are used to describe local storm “type” by quantifying storm intensity, storm heterogeneity and storm coverage. A kernel density estimator is used to convert three-dimensional scatterplots of these reflectivity statistics into tri-variate and marginal probability density functions. These statistics can be used to evaluate storm structure climatology of both observations and of high resolution Numerical Weather Prediction models.
Use of these PDFs to quantify the precipitation climatology is demonstrated for multiple locations in the continental United States. It is possible to compare any two time periods or locations with this methodology. For demonstrative purposes seasonal and regional comparisons are done for a subset of months and locations across the United States. A seasonal comparison of July to January in State College, PA is explored as is a location comparison between Miami, FL and Aberdeen, WA for July.
Model PDF comparisons with the observed climatology are done for the RUC, RAP, and HRRR. The RUC and RAP models are found to have different precipitation structure climatology despite having the same spatial resolution. Both of these models under-predict convective precipitation intensity and over-predict coverage, while the HRRR does the opposite. This could be due to the assimilation of reflectivity-derived latent heating in the HRRR model.
Advisors/Committee Members: George Young, Thesis Advisor/Co-Advisor.
Subjects/Keywords: forecast verification; weather
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APA (6th Edition):
Schneider, A. I. (2015). Use of Spatial Statistics in Precipitation Climatology and Model Evaluation. (Thesis). Penn State University. Retrieved from https://submit-etda.libraries.psu.edu/catalog/24779
Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation
Chicago Manual of Style (16th Edition):
Schneider, Anna Irene. “Use of Spatial Statistics in Precipitation Climatology and Model Evaluation.” 2015. Thesis, Penn State University. Accessed March 05, 2021.
https://submit-etda.libraries.psu.edu/catalog/24779.
Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation
MLA Handbook (7th Edition):
Schneider, Anna Irene. “Use of Spatial Statistics in Precipitation Climatology and Model Evaluation.” 2015. Web. 05 Mar 2021.
Vancouver:
Schneider AI. Use of Spatial Statistics in Precipitation Climatology and Model Evaluation. [Internet] [Thesis]. Penn State University; 2015. [cited 2021 Mar 05].
Available from: https://submit-etda.libraries.psu.edu/catalog/24779.
Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation
Council of Science Editors:
Schneider AI. Use of Spatial Statistics in Precipitation Climatology and Model Evaluation. [Thesis]. Penn State University; 2015. Available from: https://submit-etda.libraries.psu.edu/catalog/24779
Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation
Penn State University
4.
Yang, Xingchen.
A Comparison between Bayesian Model Averaging and Heteroscedastic Censored Logistic Regression Using 2012 GEFS Precipitation Reforecasts over the US Middle-Atlantic Region
.
Degree: 2016, Penn State University
URL: https://submit-etda.libraries.psu.edu/catalog/28751
► The potential of Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and heteroscedastic censored logistic regression (HCLR) to postprocess precipitation ensembles from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA’s)…
(more)
▼ The potential of Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and heteroscedastic censored logistic regression (HCLR) to postprocess precipitation ensembles from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA’s) National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) 11-member Global Ensemble
Forecast System Reforecast version 2 (GEFSRv2) dataset is investigated. To implement BMA, we select two different modeling scenarios: exchangeable and non-exchangeable members. We term the BMA postprocessing with exchangeable members BMAx. To compare the postprocessors, as part of our experimental setting, we use 24-h precipitation accumulations and lead times of 24- to 120-h. As the study area, we select the middle Atlantic region (MAR) of the United States (US). In contrast with previous postprocessing studies, we consider here a wider range of forecasting conditions (e.g., the effect of spatial pooling, training length, lead time, precipitation threshold, and seasonality) when evaluating BMA and HCLR. Additionally, BMA and HCLR have not yet been compared against each under a common and consistent experimental setting.
To implement BMA and BMAx, we use a sliding window of 25 days and train each GEFSRv2 cell separately, as opposed to using spatial pooling. These training conditions were selected by carefully examining the skill of forecasts associated with different window lengths and number of cells. To compare and verify the postprocessors, we use the BSS, CRPSS, and reliability diagrams, conditioned upon the
forecast lead time, precipitation threshold, and season. Overall, we find that HCLR tends to outperform BMA/BMAx but the differences among the postprocessors are not as significant. Also, BMA and BMAx behave similarly across lead times and seasons, iv thereby indicating that the GEFSRv2 members remain indistinguishable across lead times. The improved performance of HCLR over that of BMA seems related to the ability of HCLR to include the ensemble variance as a predictor. In the future, an alternative approach could be to combine HCLR with BMA to take advantage of their relative strengths.
Advisors/Committee Members: Alfonso Ignacio Mejia, Thesis Advisor/Co-Advisor, Steven J Greybush, Thesis Advisor/Co-Advisor, Xiaofeng Liu, Thesis Advisor/Co-Advisor.
Subjects/Keywords: ensemble forecast; postprocessing
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APA (6th Edition):
Yang, X. (2016). A Comparison between Bayesian Model Averaging and Heteroscedastic Censored Logistic Regression Using 2012 GEFS Precipitation Reforecasts over the US Middle-Atlantic Region
. (Thesis). Penn State University. Retrieved from https://submit-etda.libraries.psu.edu/catalog/28751
Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation
Chicago Manual of Style (16th Edition):
Yang, Xingchen. “A Comparison between Bayesian Model Averaging and Heteroscedastic Censored Logistic Regression Using 2012 GEFS Precipitation Reforecasts over the US Middle-Atlantic Region
.” 2016. Thesis, Penn State University. Accessed March 05, 2021.
https://submit-etda.libraries.psu.edu/catalog/28751.
Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation
MLA Handbook (7th Edition):
Yang, Xingchen. “A Comparison between Bayesian Model Averaging and Heteroscedastic Censored Logistic Regression Using 2012 GEFS Precipitation Reforecasts over the US Middle-Atlantic Region
.” 2016. Web. 05 Mar 2021.
Vancouver:
Yang X. A Comparison between Bayesian Model Averaging and Heteroscedastic Censored Logistic Regression Using 2012 GEFS Precipitation Reforecasts over the US Middle-Atlantic Region
. [Internet] [Thesis]. Penn State University; 2016. [cited 2021 Mar 05].
Available from: https://submit-etda.libraries.psu.edu/catalog/28751.
Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation
Council of Science Editors:
Yang X. A Comparison between Bayesian Model Averaging and Heteroscedastic Censored Logistic Regression Using 2012 GEFS Precipitation Reforecasts over the US Middle-Atlantic Region
. [Thesis]. Penn State University; 2016. Available from: https://submit-etda.libraries.psu.edu/catalog/28751
Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation
Rice University
5.
Cross, Daniel Mishael.
Forecast Aggregation and Binned Sequential Testing in a Streaming Environment.
Degree: PhD, Engineering, 2017, Rice University
URL: http://hdl.handle.net/1911/105520
► This thesis report covers two separate projects. The sequential probability ratio test is a statistical test of one simple hypothesis against another. Oftentimes a parametric…
(more)
▼ This thesis report covers two separate projects.
The sequential probability ratio test is a statistical test of one simple hypothesis against another. Oftentimes a parametric form is assumed for the underlying density or (discrete) probability function, and the two hypotheses are specified by two different values of the parameter. In this case the sequential probability ratio test consists of taking observations sequentially and after each observation comparing the updated likelihood ratio to two constants that are chosen to specify type I and type II error probabilities. When the likelihood ratio crosses one of the constants the corresponding density to that constant is chosen to be the true density. For more closely mixed proposed densities the expected number of steps to decision may be large, but generally is less than a fixed n design with the same type I and II errors. In this situation data compression could be a necessity in order to reduce data storage requirements. In other situations, the data may arrive or be transformed into bins. In this paper we explore the effects of binning sequential data in two cases: (1) the exact binned (histogram) of densities is known; and (2) finite sample approximations of the exact histogram densities are known. We show the effects of binning in both cases on the expected number of steps to decision, and type I and type II error. Optimal binning parameter choices for common densities as well as formulae for general densities are also given.
The Good Judgment Team led by psychologists P. Tetlock and B. Mellers of the University of Pennsylvania was the most successful of five research projects sponsored through 2015 by IARPA to develop improved group
forecast aggregation algorithms. Each team had at least ten algorithms under continuous development and evaluation over the four year project. The mean Brier score was used to rank the algorithms on approximately 130 questions concerning categorical geopolitical events each year. An algorithm would return aggregate probabilities for each question based on the prob- abilities provided per question by thousands of individuals, who had been recruited by the Good Judgment Team. This paper summarizes the theorized basis and implementation of one of the two most accurate algorithms at the conclusion of the Good Judgment Project. The algorithm incorporated a number of pre- and post-processing steps, and relied upon a minimum distance robust regression method called L2E; see Scott (2001). The algorithm was just edged out by a variation of logistic regression, which has been described elsewhere; see Mellers et al. (2014) and GJP (2015a). Work since the official conclusion of the project has led to an even smaller gap.
Advisors/Committee Members: Scott, David W (advisor).
Subjects/Keywords: Forecast Aggregation; Binning
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APA (6th Edition):
Cross, D. M. (2017). Forecast Aggregation and Binned Sequential Testing in a Streaming Environment. (Doctoral Dissertation). Rice University. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/1911/105520
Chicago Manual of Style (16th Edition):
Cross, Daniel Mishael. “Forecast Aggregation and Binned Sequential Testing in a Streaming Environment.” 2017. Doctoral Dissertation, Rice University. Accessed March 05, 2021.
http://hdl.handle.net/1911/105520.
MLA Handbook (7th Edition):
Cross, Daniel Mishael. “Forecast Aggregation and Binned Sequential Testing in a Streaming Environment.” 2017. Web. 05 Mar 2021.
Vancouver:
Cross DM. Forecast Aggregation and Binned Sequential Testing in a Streaming Environment. [Internet] [Doctoral dissertation]. Rice University; 2017. [cited 2021 Mar 05].
Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/1911/105520.
Council of Science Editors:
Cross DM. Forecast Aggregation and Binned Sequential Testing in a Streaming Environment. [Doctoral Dissertation]. Rice University; 2017. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/1911/105520
Universidade do Minho
6.
Costa, Francisco João Matos.
Forecasting volatility using GARCH models
.
Degree: 2017, Universidade do Minho
URL: http://hdl.handle.net/1822/46456
► Esta dissertação tem como ponto central a previsão da volatilidade usando vários modelos GARCH (General autoregressive conditional heteroeskedasticity) de modo a testar qual tem a…
(more)
▼ Esta dissertação tem como ponto central a previsão da volatilidade usando vários modelos GARCH (General autoregressive conditional heteroeskedasticity) de modo a testar qual tem a melhor capacidade de previsão. O foco desta dissertação é o estudo do mercado dos EUA.Os dados usados para este estudo são cotações do NASDAQ-100, de 1986 até 2016. Neste estudo são considerados três períodos de estimação para os modelos GARCH: 500 dias, 1000 dias e 2000 dias de modo a minimizar a possível presença de mudanças na estrutura dos dados. Regressões lineares (Mincer-Zarnowitz) foram efectuadas de forma a avaliar a performance individual de cada modelo GARCH. Depois disso, de forma a detectar qual o melhor modelo para prever a volatilidade, o teste de SPA de Hansen and Lunde (2005) foi utilizado. Os resultados são conclusivos de que os modelos são semelhantes no que toca à previsão da volatilidade condicional do dia seguinte, com a possível excepção do modelo IGARCH. O modelo GJR não apresenta resultados satisfatórios quando a janela de estimação utilizada na estimação dos modelos é de 1000 dias.
Advisors/Committee Members: Areal, Nelson (advisor).
Subjects/Keywords: GARCH;
Volatilidade;
Previsão;
Volatility;
Forecast
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APA (6th Edition):
Costa, F. J. M. (2017). Forecasting volatility using GARCH models
. (Masters Thesis). Universidade do Minho. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/1822/46456
Chicago Manual of Style (16th Edition):
Costa, Francisco João Matos. “Forecasting volatility using GARCH models
.” 2017. Masters Thesis, Universidade do Minho. Accessed March 05, 2021.
http://hdl.handle.net/1822/46456.
MLA Handbook (7th Edition):
Costa, Francisco João Matos. “Forecasting volatility using GARCH models
.” 2017. Web. 05 Mar 2021.
Vancouver:
Costa FJM. Forecasting volatility using GARCH models
. [Internet] [Masters thesis]. Universidade do Minho; 2017. [cited 2021 Mar 05].
Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/1822/46456.
Council of Science Editors:
Costa FJM. Forecasting volatility using GARCH models
. [Masters Thesis]. Universidade do Minho; 2017. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/1822/46456
UCLA
7.
Saslo, Seth Francis.
An Ensemble Approach to Large Hail Forecasting Using Environmental Parameters.
Degree: Atmospheric & Oceanic Sciences, 2014, UCLA
URL: http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/18p9x1mn
► A model to predict the probability of large hail in a thunderstorm using pre-storm environmental parameters is developed with an ensemble decision tree method known…
(more)
▼ A model to predict the probability of large hail in a thunderstorm using pre-storm environmental parameters is developed with an ensemble decision tree method known as Random Forest. Variables integral to hail forecasting are investigated and selected for inclusion in the model. Using a predefined database of observed atmospheric soundings, the model is tested and found to have positive skill, similar to current operational techniques. Applying the model to North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) data, a recent climatology of hail threat in the central United States is created and compared to observations. Model statistics, generated by defining probability thresholds to detect large hail and comparing the results to observed hail reports, show that the model has an advantage over other techniques in correctly forecasting hail occurrence. Trends in the statistics are explored and found to have a dependence consistent with spatial and temporal variability in atmospheric variables over the US, and improvements to the model based on these findings are proposed.
Subjects/Keywords: Atmospheric sciences; forecast; hail
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APA (6th Edition):
Saslo, S. F. (2014). An Ensemble Approach to Large Hail Forecasting Using Environmental Parameters. (Thesis). UCLA. Retrieved from http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/18p9x1mn
Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation
Chicago Manual of Style (16th Edition):
Saslo, Seth Francis. “An Ensemble Approach to Large Hail Forecasting Using Environmental Parameters.” 2014. Thesis, UCLA. Accessed March 05, 2021.
http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/18p9x1mn.
Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation
MLA Handbook (7th Edition):
Saslo, Seth Francis. “An Ensemble Approach to Large Hail Forecasting Using Environmental Parameters.” 2014. Web. 05 Mar 2021.
Vancouver:
Saslo SF. An Ensemble Approach to Large Hail Forecasting Using Environmental Parameters. [Internet] [Thesis]. UCLA; 2014. [cited 2021 Mar 05].
Available from: http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/18p9x1mn.
Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation
Council of Science Editors:
Saslo SF. An Ensemble Approach to Large Hail Forecasting Using Environmental Parameters. [Thesis]. UCLA; 2014. Available from: http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/18p9x1mn
Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation
University of California – Merced
8.
Harrison, Brent.
Skill evaluation of water supply forecasts in western Sierra Nevada and Colorado River basins.
Degree: Environmental Systems, 2014, University of California – Merced
URL: http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/7712b9sf
► Runoff records from thirteen major river basins on the western slope of the Sierra Nevada in California were compared to runoff forecasts for those watersheds…
(more)
▼ Runoff records from thirteen major river basins on the western slope of the Sierra Nevada in California were compared to runoff forecasts for those watersheds to determine the skill of those runoff forecasts. The forecasts, some dating back to the 1930's, were made at the beginning of the months of February, March, April and May. An array of summary, correlation and categorical skill measures were computed for each forecast and associated observation. The same array of skill measures were computed for 28 basins tributary to the Colorado River, again with some forecasts dating back to the 1930's. The skill measures were reviewed for each region and compared to watershed characteristics to develop explanations for the trends and results. Finally the Sierra Nevada results were directly compared with the watersheds in the Colorado River basin, thereby developing explanations for the trends, similarities and differences obtained.A strong relationship between increasing watershed elevation and increased forecast skill was shown by the western Sierra forecasts but was not found in the Colorado locations. This result can be explained by snow dominance of the Sierra Nevada runoff. The snow dominance was shown to increase to the south as the elevation of the watersheds increased. The summary measures included a skill score based on Mean Absolute Error which showed clearly the increase in skill during the forecast season, with both the skill scores starting at 0.3 for both regions. This increase in skill over the forecast season is attributed to the increasing knowledge of climatology during the forecast season. The skill of the western Sierra forecasts ends the season somewhat higher at 0.8 compared to 0.6 for the Colorado Basin. The monthly increase in NS score was higher at 0.19 for the western Sierra watersheds when compared to watersheds elsewhere in the western United States, which ranged from 0.08 to 0.12 per month. These results can be explained by the snow magnitude and dominance of runoff in the Sierra Nevada. The under forecasting of high runoff years was illustrated in both the low False Alarm Rate and the under forecast Bias for high flow runoff years.
Subjects/Keywords: Civil engineering; forecast; runoff; skill
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Manager
APA (6th Edition):
Harrison, B. (2014). Skill evaluation of water supply forecasts in western Sierra Nevada and Colorado River basins. (Thesis). University of California – Merced. Retrieved from http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/7712b9sf
Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation
Chicago Manual of Style (16th Edition):
Harrison, Brent. “Skill evaluation of water supply forecasts in western Sierra Nevada and Colorado River basins.” 2014. Thesis, University of California – Merced. Accessed March 05, 2021.
http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/7712b9sf.
Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation
MLA Handbook (7th Edition):
Harrison, Brent. “Skill evaluation of water supply forecasts in western Sierra Nevada and Colorado River basins.” 2014. Web. 05 Mar 2021.
Vancouver:
Harrison B. Skill evaluation of water supply forecasts in western Sierra Nevada and Colorado River basins. [Internet] [Thesis]. University of California – Merced; 2014. [cited 2021 Mar 05].
Available from: http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/7712b9sf.
Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation
Council of Science Editors:
Harrison B. Skill evaluation of water supply forecasts in western Sierra Nevada and Colorado River basins. [Thesis]. University of California – Merced; 2014. Available from: http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/7712b9sf
Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation
Cornell University
9.
Motoaki, Yutaka.
Time-Series Analysis Of Bicycle Count Data.
Degree: M.S., Civil and Environmental Engineering, Civil and Environmental Engineering, 2015, Cornell University
URL: http://hdl.handle.net/1813/39437
Subjects/Keywords: Bicycle; Forecast
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APA (6th Edition):
Motoaki, Y. (2015). Time-Series Analysis Of Bicycle Count Data. (Masters Thesis). Cornell University. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/1813/39437
Chicago Manual of Style (16th Edition):
Motoaki, Yutaka. “Time-Series Analysis Of Bicycle Count Data.” 2015. Masters Thesis, Cornell University. Accessed March 05, 2021.
http://hdl.handle.net/1813/39437.
MLA Handbook (7th Edition):
Motoaki, Yutaka. “Time-Series Analysis Of Bicycle Count Data.” 2015. Web. 05 Mar 2021.
Vancouver:
Motoaki Y. Time-Series Analysis Of Bicycle Count Data. [Internet] [Masters thesis]. Cornell University; 2015. [cited 2021 Mar 05].
Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/1813/39437.
Council of Science Editors:
Motoaki Y. Time-Series Analysis Of Bicycle Count Data. [Masters Thesis]. Cornell University; 2015. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/1813/39437
Texas A&M University
10.
Loeser, Carlee Frances.
An Assessment of the Performance of the Operational Global Ensemble Forecast Systems in Predicting the Forecast Uncertainty.
Degree: MS, Atmospheric Sciences, 2016, Texas A&M University
URL: http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/158010
► This study investigates the efficiency of the operational global ensemble forecast systems in capturing the spatiotemporal evolution of the forecast uncertainty. It has two novel…
(more)
▼ This study investigates the efficiency of the operational global ensemble
forecast systems in capturing the spatiotemporal evolution of the
forecast uncertainty. It has two novel aspects: first, it extends the results of an earlier study from 2012 to 2015; second, it documents the first attempts to predict the reliability of the ensembles in capturing the uncertain
forecast features and the 95th percentile value of the
forecast error for operational ensembles. It is found that the main characteristics of the systems of the different centers in their efficiency in representing the spatiotemporal evolution of the
forecast uncertainty have not changed much in the last three years. The only exception is the UKMO ensemble, whose performance improved in predicting the total magnitude of the uncertainty, but greatly degraded in predicting the patterns of
forecast uncertainty. All ensembles were found to have major difficulties with predicting the large scale atmospheric flow in the
forecast range longer than 10 days. These difficulties are due to the inability of the models to maintain the large-scale zonal anomalies of the atmospheric flow in the long
forecast range. It was also found that the flow-dependent reliability of the ensembles in capturing the local structure of the
forecast uncertainty and the 95th percentile value of the
forecast error can accurately be predicted.
Advisors/Committee Members: Szunyogh, Istvan (advisor), Korty, Robert (committee member), Hetland, Robert (committee member).
Subjects/Keywords: ensemble forecasting; forecast uncertainty
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Manager
APA (6th Edition):
Loeser, C. F. (2016). An Assessment of the Performance of the Operational Global Ensemble Forecast Systems in Predicting the Forecast Uncertainty. (Masters Thesis). Texas A&M University. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/158010
Chicago Manual of Style (16th Edition):
Loeser, Carlee Frances. “An Assessment of the Performance of the Operational Global Ensemble Forecast Systems in Predicting the Forecast Uncertainty.” 2016. Masters Thesis, Texas A&M University. Accessed March 05, 2021.
http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/158010.
MLA Handbook (7th Edition):
Loeser, Carlee Frances. “An Assessment of the Performance of the Operational Global Ensemble Forecast Systems in Predicting the Forecast Uncertainty.” 2016. Web. 05 Mar 2021.
Vancouver:
Loeser CF. An Assessment of the Performance of the Operational Global Ensemble Forecast Systems in Predicting the Forecast Uncertainty. [Internet] [Masters thesis]. Texas A&M University; 2016. [cited 2021 Mar 05].
Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/158010.
Council of Science Editors:
Loeser CF. An Assessment of the Performance of the Operational Global Ensemble Forecast Systems in Predicting the Forecast Uncertainty. [Masters Thesis]. Texas A&M University; 2016. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/158010
Texas A&M University
11.
Almulla, Jassim M.
Using the Hubbert curve to forecast oil production trends worldwide.
Degree: MS, Petroleum Engineering, 2007, Texas A&M University
URL: http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/5755
► Crude oil is by far the most important commodity to humans after water and food. Having a continuous and affordable supply of oil is considered…
(more)
▼ Crude oil is by far the most important commodity to humans after water and food.
Having a continuous and affordable supply of oil is considered a basic human right in
this day and age. That is the main reason oil companies are in a constant search of cost
effective ways and technologies that allow for an improved oil recovery rate. This would
improve profitability as well.
What almost everyone knows and dreads at the same time is that oil is an
exhaustible resource. This means that as more oil is being produced every day, the
amount of oil that remains to be produced shrinks even more. With almost all big oil
fields worldwide having already been discovered, the challenge of finding new reserves
grows harder and harder.
A question that has always been asked is âÂÂwhen are we going to run out of
oil?â Given the available technologies and techniques, no one could give an exact
answer and if someone does, he/she would not be 100% sure of that answer. This study
tries to approximate future oil production rates to the year 2050 using the Hubbert
model. There are different models or tools to estimate future oil production rates, but the reason that the Hubbert model was chosen for this study is its simplicity and data
availability.
As any
forecast, this study depends heavily on past trends but also factors
in the current conditions. It is safe to say that this
forecast (study) is as any other
forecast, in which it will probably not mirror exactly what will happen in the future.
Still, forecasts have to be done, especially for such an important commodity.
This study predicts that the total oil to be recovered is 4.1 trillion barrels. It
also shows that most major oil-producing countries are either passed or about to pass
their peaks.
Advisors/Committee Members: Startzman, Richard A. (advisor), Ahr, Wayne M. (committee member), Schubert, Jerome J. (committee member).
Subjects/Keywords: Hubbert; Forecast
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Manager
APA (6th Edition):
Almulla, J. M. (2007). Using the Hubbert curve to forecast oil production trends worldwide. (Masters Thesis). Texas A&M University. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/5755
Chicago Manual of Style (16th Edition):
Almulla, Jassim M. “Using the Hubbert curve to forecast oil production trends worldwide.” 2007. Masters Thesis, Texas A&M University. Accessed March 05, 2021.
http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/5755.
MLA Handbook (7th Edition):
Almulla, Jassim M. “Using the Hubbert curve to forecast oil production trends worldwide.” 2007. Web. 05 Mar 2021.
Vancouver:
Almulla JM. Using the Hubbert curve to forecast oil production trends worldwide. [Internet] [Masters thesis]. Texas A&M University; 2007. [cited 2021 Mar 05].
Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/5755.
Council of Science Editors:
Almulla JM. Using the Hubbert curve to forecast oil production trends worldwide. [Masters Thesis]. Texas A&M University; 2007. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/5755
Texas A&M University
12.
Runyan, Bruce Wayne.
The effect of multinationality on management earnings forecasts.
Degree: PhD, Accounting, 2005, Texas A&M University
URL: http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/2272
► This study examines the relationship between a firm??s degree of multinationality and its managers?? earnings forecasts. Firms with a high degree of multinationality are subject…
(more)
▼ This study examines the relationship between a firm??s degree of multinationality
and its managers?? earnings forecasts. Firms with a high degree of multinationality are
subject to greater uncertainty regarding earnings forecasts due to the additional risk
resulting from the more complex multinational environment. Prior research demonstrates
that firms that fail to meet or beat market expectations experience disproportionate
market losses at earnings announcement dates. The complexities and greater uncertainty
resulting from higher levels of multinationality are expected to be negatively associated
with management earnings
forecast precision, accuracy, and bias (downward versus
upward).
Results of the study are mixed. Regarding
forecast precision, two measures of
multinationality (foreign sales / total sales and the number of geographic segments) are
significantly negatively related to management earnings
forecast precision. This was the
expected relationship. Regarding
forecast accuracy, contrary to expectations,
forecast
accuracy is positively related to multinationality, with regard to the number of
geographic segments a firm discloses. Regarding
forecast bias, unexpectedly, two
measures of multinationality (foreign sales / total sales and number of countries withforeign subsidiaries) are significantly positively related to more optimistic management
earnings forecasts.
Advisors/Committee Members: Smith, L. Murphy (advisor), Eden, Lorraine (committee member), Kerr, David S. (committee member), Strawser, Robert H. (committee member).
Subjects/Keywords: International; Forecast
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Manager
APA (6th Edition):
Runyan, B. W. (2005). The effect of multinationality on management earnings forecasts. (Doctoral Dissertation). Texas A&M University. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/2272
Chicago Manual of Style (16th Edition):
Runyan, Bruce Wayne. “The effect of multinationality on management earnings forecasts.” 2005. Doctoral Dissertation, Texas A&M University. Accessed March 05, 2021.
http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/2272.
MLA Handbook (7th Edition):
Runyan, Bruce Wayne. “The effect of multinationality on management earnings forecasts.” 2005. Web. 05 Mar 2021.
Vancouver:
Runyan BW. The effect of multinationality on management earnings forecasts. [Internet] [Doctoral dissertation]. Texas A&M University; 2005. [cited 2021 Mar 05].
Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/2272.
Council of Science Editors:
Runyan BW. The effect of multinationality on management earnings forecasts. [Doctoral Dissertation]. Texas A&M University; 2005. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/2272
Texas A&M University
13.
Alotaibi, Basel Z S Z J.
Production Forecast, Analysis and Simulation of Eagle Ford Shale Oil.
Degree: MS, Petroleum Engineering, 2014, Texas A&M University
URL: http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/154009
► In previous works and published literature, production forecast and production decline of unconventional reservoirs were done on a single-well basis. The main objective of previous…
(more)
▼ In previous works and published literature, production
forecast and production decline of unconventional reservoirs were done on a single-well basis. The main objective of previous works was to estimate the ultimate recovery of wells or to
forecast the decline of wells in order to estimate how many years a well could produce and what the abandonment rate was. Other studies targeted production data analysis to evaluate the completion (hydraulic fracturing) of shale wells.
The purpose of this research is to generate field-wide production
forecast of the Eagle Ford Shale (EFS). This study considered oil production of the EFS only. More than 6 thousand oil wells were put online in the EFS basin between 2008 and December 2013. The method started by generating type curves of producing wells to understand their performance. Based on the type curves, a program was prepared to
forecast the oil production of EFS based on different drilling schedules; drilling requirements can be calculated based on the desired production rate. To complement the research, analysis of daily production data from the basin was performed. Moreover, single-well simulations were done to compare results with the analyzed data.
Findings of this study depended on the proposed drilling and developing scenario of EFS. The field showed potential of producing high oil production rate for a long period of time. The three presented forecasted cases gave and indications of the expected field-wide rate that can be witnessed in the near future in EFS.
The method generated by this study is useful for predicting the performance of various unconventional reservoirs for both oil and gas. It can be used as a quick-look tool that can help if numerical reservoir simulations of the whole basin are not yet prepared. In conclusion, this tool can be used to prepare an optimized drilling schedule to reach the required rate of the whole basin.
Advisors/Committee Members: Schechter, David (advisor), Maggard, Bryan (committee member), Sun, Yuefeng (committee member).
Subjects/Keywords: Eagle Ford Shale; Forecast
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Manager
APA (6th Edition):
Alotaibi, B. Z. S. Z. J. (2014). Production Forecast, Analysis and Simulation of Eagle Ford Shale Oil. (Masters Thesis). Texas A&M University. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/154009
Chicago Manual of Style (16th Edition):
Alotaibi, Basel Z S Z J. “Production Forecast, Analysis and Simulation of Eagle Ford Shale Oil.” 2014. Masters Thesis, Texas A&M University. Accessed March 05, 2021.
http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/154009.
MLA Handbook (7th Edition):
Alotaibi, Basel Z S Z J. “Production Forecast, Analysis and Simulation of Eagle Ford Shale Oil.” 2014. Web. 05 Mar 2021.
Vancouver:
Alotaibi BZSZJ. Production Forecast, Analysis and Simulation of Eagle Ford Shale Oil. [Internet] [Masters thesis]. Texas A&M University; 2014. [cited 2021 Mar 05].
Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/154009.
Council of Science Editors:
Alotaibi BZSZJ. Production Forecast, Analysis and Simulation of Eagle Ford Shale Oil. [Masters Thesis]. Texas A&M University; 2014. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/154009
Texas A&M University
14.
Herrera, Michael Aaron.
An Investigation of the Dynamics of Forecast Errors and Its Representation in the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE).
Degree: MS, Atmospheric Sciences, 2014, Texas A&M University
URL: http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/154177
► We employ local linear diagnostics to investigate the efficiency of an ensemble in capturing the space and magnitude of forecast uncertainties. In this study, we…
(more)
▼ We employ local linear diagnostics to investigate the efficiency of an ensemble in capturing the space and magnitude of
forecast uncertainties. In this study, we use ensemble
forecast data from the leading NWP centers included in the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE).We find that the operational ensembles included in the TIGGE data set are highly efficient in capturing the space and magnitude of
forecast uncertainties past about 72 hour
forecast lead time. We also find that our diagnostics are able to provide valuable information on the performance of the ensembles in respect to model setup, such as ensemble generation techniques and model error parameterizations. Lastly we investigate the geographical distribution of ensemble performance for select operational centers. We utilize components of the eddy kinetic energy equation to find how transient processes at the synoptic scale might affect our diagnostics.
Advisors/Committee Members: Szunyogh, Istvan (advisor), Saravanan, Ramalingam (committee member), Korty, Robert L (committee member), Hetland, Robert D (committee member).
Subjects/Keywords: TIGGE; Forecast Error; NWP
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Manager
APA (6th Edition):
Herrera, M. A. (2014). An Investigation of the Dynamics of Forecast Errors and Its Representation in the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE). (Masters Thesis). Texas A&M University. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/154177
Chicago Manual of Style (16th Edition):
Herrera, Michael Aaron. “An Investigation of the Dynamics of Forecast Errors and Its Representation in the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE).” 2014. Masters Thesis, Texas A&M University. Accessed March 05, 2021.
http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/154177.
MLA Handbook (7th Edition):
Herrera, Michael Aaron. “An Investigation of the Dynamics of Forecast Errors and Its Representation in the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE).” 2014. Web. 05 Mar 2021.
Vancouver:
Herrera MA. An Investigation of the Dynamics of Forecast Errors and Its Representation in the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE). [Internet] [Masters thesis]. Texas A&M University; 2014. [cited 2021 Mar 05].
Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/154177.
Council of Science Editors:
Herrera MA. An Investigation of the Dynamics of Forecast Errors and Its Representation in the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE). [Masters Thesis]. Texas A&M University; 2014. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/154177
Texas A&M University
15.
Newton, Micah J.
DEVELOP A FERTILIZER PRICE FORECASTING MODEL TO ASSIST WITH FARM MANAGEMENT DECISIONS.
Degree: MS, Agricultural Economics, 2019, Texas A&M University
URL: http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/188784
► Fertilizer is critical to modern production agriculture. The primary components of fertilizer, nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P) and potassium (K) provide crops the nutrients required to…
(more)
▼ Fertilizer is critical to modern production agriculture. The primary components of fertilizer, nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P) and potassium (K) provide crops the nutrients required to achieve optimal production. Across all types of U.S. crop farms, fertilizers account for roughly 20 percent of crop production expenses. Over time, fertilizer prices have been quite variable. Farmers typically order or book fertilizer needs in the late fall well in advance of planting or wait until closer to planting.
The decision to book fertilizer in advance verses buying when needed is a business management issue for many farmers. This study uses a vector autoregression model to
forecast fertilizer wholesale fertilizer prices. A decision analysis for two purchasing strategies that test seasonal changes of fertilizer prices is explored. Finally, a price wedge is added to two regional forecasts to reflect retail fertilizer prices. The price forecasts show that fertilizer prices have decreased in the last six months and will continue to remain steady in the near future. Results of the decision analysis did not indicate that there were seasonal changes between months.
Advisors/Committee Members: Outlaw, Joe L. (advisor), Bryant, Henry L. (committee member), Dozier, Monty C. (committee member).
Subjects/Keywords: Fertilizer; Forecast; Farm Management
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Manager
APA (6th Edition):
Newton, M. J. (2019). DEVELOP A FERTILIZER PRICE FORECASTING MODEL TO ASSIST WITH FARM MANAGEMENT DECISIONS. (Masters Thesis). Texas A&M University. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/188784
Chicago Manual of Style (16th Edition):
Newton, Micah J. “DEVELOP A FERTILIZER PRICE FORECASTING MODEL TO ASSIST WITH FARM MANAGEMENT DECISIONS.” 2019. Masters Thesis, Texas A&M University. Accessed March 05, 2021.
http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/188784.
MLA Handbook (7th Edition):
Newton, Micah J. “DEVELOP A FERTILIZER PRICE FORECASTING MODEL TO ASSIST WITH FARM MANAGEMENT DECISIONS.” 2019. Web. 05 Mar 2021.
Vancouver:
Newton MJ. DEVELOP A FERTILIZER PRICE FORECASTING MODEL TO ASSIST WITH FARM MANAGEMENT DECISIONS. [Internet] [Masters thesis]. Texas A&M University; 2019. [cited 2021 Mar 05].
Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/188784.
Council of Science Editors:
Newton MJ. DEVELOP A FERTILIZER PRICE FORECASTING MODEL TO ASSIST WITH FARM MANAGEMENT DECISIONS. [Masters Thesis]. Texas A&M University; 2019. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/188784
Uppsala University
16.
Robertson, Fredrik.
Forecasting monthly air passenger flows from Sweden : Evaluating forecast performance using the Airline model as benchmark.
Degree: Statistics, 2014, Uppsala University
URL: http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-242764
► In this paper two different models for forecasting the number of monthly departing passengers from Sweden to any international destination are developed and compared.…
(more)
▼ In this paper two different models for forecasting the number of monthly departing passengers from Sweden to any international destination are developed and compared. The Swedish transport agency produces forecasts on a yearly basis, where net export is the only explanatory variable controlled for in the latest report. More profound studies have shown a relevance of controlling for variables such as unemployment rate, oil price and exchange rates. Due to the high seasonality within passenger flows, these forecasts are based on monthly or quarterly data. This paper shows that a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model with exogenous input outperforms the benchmark model forecast in seven out of nine months. Thus, controlling for oil price, the SEK/EUR exchange rate and the occurrence of Easter reduces the mean absolute percentage error of the forecasts from 3,27 to 2,83 % on Swedish data.
Subjects/Keywords: airline model; SARIMAX; forecast; passengers
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Manager
APA (6th Edition):
Robertson, F. (2014). Forecasting monthly air passenger flows from Sweden : Evaluating forecast performance using the Airline model as benchmark. (Thesis). Uppsala University. Retrieved from http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-242764
Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation
Chicago Manual of Style (16th Edition):
Robertson, Fredrik. “Forecasting monthly air passenger flows from Sweden : Evaluating forecast performance using the Airline model as benchmark.” 2014. Thesis, Uppsala University. Accessed March 05, 2021.
http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-242764.
Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation
MLA Handbook (7th Edition):
Robertson, Fredrik. “Forecasting monthly air passenger flows from Sweden : Evaluating forecast performance using the Airline model as benchmark.” 2014. Web. 05 Mar 2021.
Vancouver:
Robertson F. Forecasting monthly air passenger flows from Sweden : Evaluating forecast performance using the Airline model as benchmark. [Internet] [Thesis]. Uppsala University; 2014. [cited 2021 Mar 05].
Available from: http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-242764.
Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation
Council of Science Editors:
Robertson F. Forecasting monthly air passenger flows from Sweden : Evaluating forecast performance using the Airline model as benchmark. [Thesis]. Uppsala University; 2014. Available from: http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-242764
Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation
Michigan Technological University
17.
Wu, Yan.
CAN CHINA USE ALTERNATIVE ENERGIES INSTEAD OF COAL TO PROVIDE MORE ELECTRICITY BY 2030?.
Degree: MS, School of Business and Economics, 2014, Michigan Technological University
URL: https://digitalcommons.mtu.edu/etds/767
► Following the rapid growth of China's economy, energy consumption, especially electricity consumption of China, has made a huge increase in the past 30 years.…
(more)
▼ Following the rapid growth of China's economy, energy consumption, especially electricity consumption of China, has made a huge increase in the past 30 years. Since China has been using coal as the major energy source to produce electricity during these years, environmental problems have become more and more serious. The research question for this paper is: "Can China use alternative energies instead of coal to produce more electricity in 2030?" Hydro power, nuclear power, natural gas, wind power and solar power are considered as the possible and most popular alternative energies for the current situation of China. To answer the research question above, there are two things to know: How much is the total electricity consumption in China by 2030? And how much electricity can the alternative energies provide in China by 2030? For a more reliable
forecast, an econometric model using the Ordinary Least Squares Method is established on this paper to predict the total electricity consumption by 2030. The predicted electricity coming from alternative energy sources by 2030 in China can be calculated from the existing literature. The research results of this paper are analyzed under a reference scenario and a max tech scenario. In the reference scenario, the combination of the alternative energies can provide 47.71% of the total electricity consumption by 2030. In the max tech scenario, it provides 57.96% of the total electricity consumption by 2030. These results are important not only because they indicate the government's long term goal is reachable, but also implies that the natural environment of China could have an inspiring future.
Advisors/Committee Members: Gary Campbell.
Subjects/Keywords: China; Electricity; Forecast; Economics
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Manager
APA (6th Edition):
Wu, Y. (2014). CAN CHINA USE ALTERNATIVE ENERGIES INSTEAD OF COAL TO PROVIDE MORE ELECTRICITY BY 2030?. (Masters Thesis). Michigan Technological University. Retrieved from https://digitalcommons.mtu.edu/etds/767
Chicago Manual of Style (16th Edition):
Wu, Yan. “CAN CHINA USE ALTERNATIVE ENERGIES INSTEAD OF COAL TO PROVIDE MORE ELECTRICITY BY 2030?.” 2014. Masters Thesis, Michigan Technological University. Accessed March 05, 2021.
https://digitalcommons.mtu.edu/etds/767.
MLA Handbook (7th Edition):
Wu, Yan. “CAN CHINA USE ALTERNATIVE ENERGIES INSTEAD OF COAL TO PROVIDE MORE ELECTRICITY BY 2030?.” 2014. Web. 05 Mar 2021.
Vancouver:
Wu Y. CAN CHINA USE ALTERNATIVE ENERGIES INSTEAD OF COAL TO PROVIDE MORE ELECTRICITY BY 2030?. [Internet] [Masters thesis]. Michigan Technological University; 2014. [cited 2021 Mar 05].
Available from: https://digitalcommons.mtu.edu/etds/767.
Council of Science Editors:
Wu Y. CAN CHINA USE ALTERNATIVE ENERGIES INSTEAD OF COAL TO PROVIDE MORE ELECTRICITY BY 2030?. [Masters Thesis]. Michigan Technological University; 2014. Available from: https://digitalcommons.mtu.edu/etds/767
University of Melbourne
18.
Meng, Yan.
Analyst forecast and firm reporting bias.
Degree: 2019, University of Melbourne
URL: http://hdl.handle.net/11343/230617
► This thesis investigates how the presence of an analyst affects the corporate information environment when both the analyst forecast and the manager’s report are endogenously…
(more)
▼ This thesis investigates how the presence of an analyst affects the corporate information environment when both the analyst forecast and the manager’s report are endogenously determined. I build two stylized models in which the manager has hidden price incentives in issuing his report to investors, and the analyst has two signals, one about the firm’s fundamental value and the other about the manager’s hidden price incentives. In the first setting, the analyst’s objective is to forecast both reported earnings and firm fundamentals. I find that the analyst’s forecasting strategy depends on the manager’s incentives, even when the analyst does not care about the manager’s report, calling into question Beyer’s (2008) suggestion that the dependence is due to the interaction between the analyst and the manager. Further, I find that the investor’s total information at hand after both the forecast and the report are released is non-monotonic in the quality of the analyst’s information, increases with the manager’s weight on being close to firm fundamentals in his incentives, and decreases with his weight on being close to the analyst forecast. The second setting differs from the first in that the analyst’s objective is to care about the client’s trading profits and forecast accuracy. I find that the properties of the analyst forecast and the manager’s report depend on the analyst’s incentives to boost the client’s trading profits, complementing Beyer’s (2008) finding that the analyst’s forecasting strategy depends on the manager’s incentives due to the interaction between the two. Further, I find that both the forecast distortion and the forecast accuracy are non-monotonic in the quality of the analyst’s value information.
Subjects/Keywords: analyst forecast; reporting bias
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Manager
APA (6th Edition):
Meng, Y. (2019). Analyst forecast and firm reporting bias. (Doctoral Dissertation). University of Melbourne. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/11343/230617
Chicago Manual of Style (16th Edition):
Meng, Yan. “Analyst forecast and firm reporting bias.” 2019. Doctoral Dissertation, University of Melbourne. Accessed March 05, 2021.
http://hdl.handle.net/11343/230617.
MLA Handbook (7th Edition):
Meng, Yan. “Analyst forecast and firm reporting bias.” 2019. Web. 05 Mar 2021.
Vancouver:
Meng Y. Analyst forecast and firm reporting bias. [Internet] [Doctoral dissertation]. University of Melbourne; 2019. [cited 2021 Mar 05].
Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/11343/230617.
Council of Science Editors:
Meng Y. Analyst forecast and firm reporting bias. [Doctoral Dissertation]. University of Melbourne; 2019. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/11343/230617
Louisiana State University
19.
Walker, Thomas.
Enhanced gas recovery using pressure and displacement management.
Degree: MSPE, Petroleum Engineering, 2005, Louisiana State University
URL: etd-04152005-110009
;
https://digitalcommons.lsu.edu/gradschool_theses/2748
► The work contained in this thesis combines two previous enhanced gas recovery techniques; coproduction of water and gas from water-drive reservoirs and waterflooding of low…
(more)
▼ The work contained in this thesis combines two previous enhanced gas recovery techniques; coproduction of water and gas from water-drive reservoirs and waterflooding of low pressure gas reservoirs. These two techniques allow the control of reservoir pressure and sweep efficiency through planed production or injection of water. A recovery optimization method, which is applicable to any gas reservoir, was developed using the concept of pressure and displacement management (PDM). Two simulation studies were conducted, using Eclipse©, to investigate recovery optimization by coproduction and waterflooding. From the coproduction study it was determined that the water production rate needed to optimize recovery increases over time, and that accelerating production rate causes the optimum coproduction rate to increase even faster over time. In the case of the waterflooding study it was concluded that the injection rate necessary to obtain a given recovery factor in a given amount of time, with a limited injection volume goes up significantly over time, and that beginning water injection early in the life of a reservoir can have several advantages to performing a waterflood near abandonment. In addition, a PDM computer model, that can be used for recovery analysis was developed for Excel. Although this application could be adapted to other programs, Excel allows for fast and effective screening of reservoirs amenable to PDM. Two field cases are analyzed in order to demonstrate the idea of recovery optimization and the versatility of the PDM application.
Subjects/Keywords: production forecast
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Manager
APA (6th Edition):
Walker, T. (2005). Enhanced gas recovery using pressure and displacement management. (Masters Thesis). Louisiana State University. Retrieved from etd-04152005-110009 ; https://digitalcommons.lsu.edu/gradschool_theses/2748
Chicago Manual of Style (16th Edition):
Walker, Thomas. “Enhanced gas recovery using pressure and displacement management.” 2005. Masters Thesis, Louisiana State University. Accessed March 05, 2021.
etd-04152005-110009 ; https://digitalcommons.lsu.edu/gradschool_theses/2748.
MLA Handbook (7th Edition):
Walker, Thomas. “Enhanced gas recovery using pressure and displacement management.” 2005. Web. 05 Mar 2021.
Vancouver:
Walker T. Enhanced gas recovery using pressure and displacement management. [Internet] [Masters thesis]. Louisiana State University; 2005. [cited 2021 Mar 05].
Available from: etd-04152005-110009 ; https://digitalcommons.lsu.edu/gradschool_theses/2748.
Council of Science Editors:
Walker T. Enhanced gas recovery using pressure and displacement management. [Masters Thesis]. Louisiana State University; 2005. Available from: etd-04152005-110009 ; https://digitalcommons.lsu.edu/gradschool_theses/2748
Massey University
20.
Lu, Rong.
A study to examine the importance of forecast accuracy to supply chain performance, the ocntributing factors and the improvement enablers in practice.
Degree: Master of Logistics and Supply Chain Management, 2015, Massey University
URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10179/7148
► Forecast accuracy plays a critical role in supply chain performance. Various researches have studied this topic from different angles, inspired by these studies, objectives are…
(more)
▼ Forecast accuracy plays a critical role in supply chain performance. Various researches have
studied this topic from different angles, inspired by these studies, objectives are set up to
investigate the recognition of the importance of forecast accuracy in supply chain
performance in practice, identify the contributing factors and improvement enablers
recognised in practice. This research attempts to comprehensively examine the findings and
conclusions that are drawn from literatures in the real supply chain environment, at the
same time aims to discover good practices as well as issues from the supply chain practice
for future studies, and provides recommendations to the practitioners based on findings and
conclusions from both literature review and this research.
An exploratory research approach utilizing a combined quantitative and qualitative method
has been taken. The research starts with an on-line questionnaire, then complemented by
follow up telephone interviews subject to the candidates’ willingness to participate.
Information collected through the survey and interviews are analysed using different Excel
tools and methods, conclusions and recommendations are then drawn based on the findings
and discussions.
It has been concluded that the importance of forecast accuracy for supply chain
performance has been well recognized in practice. The contributing factors and
improvement enablers identified from the literature review have been commonly
acknowledged by the practitioners, however, the level of understanding on these subjects
varied among these businesses, and different opinions and approaches have also been
discovered. In some cases, actions taken to seek improvement are well lagging behind.
Furthermore, new views, fresh ideas, good practices, issues and constraints are also revealed
through this research. Recommendation based on both literature review and the research
findings are then made to the practitioners. At the same time, suggestions are given for
future studies.
Subjects/Keywords: Forecast accuracy;
Supply chain performance
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Manager
APA (6th Edition):
Lu, R. (2015). A study to examine the importance of forecast accuracy to supply chain performance, the ocntributing factors and the improvement enablers in practice. (Masters Thesis). Massey University. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/10179/7148
Chicago Manual of Style (16th Edition):
Lu, Rong. “A study to examine the importance of forecast accuracy to supply chain performance, the ocntributing factors and the improvement enablers in practice.” 2015. Masters Thesis, Massey University. Accessed March 05, 2021.
http://hdl.handle.net/10179/7148.
MLA Handbook (7th Edition):
Lu, Rong. “A study to examine the importance of forecast accuracy to supply chain performance, the ocntributing factors and the improvement enablers in practice.” 2015. Web. 05 Mar 2021.
Vancouver:
Lu R. A study to examine the importance of forecast accuracy to supply chain performance, the ocntributing factors and the improvement enablers in practice. [Internet] [Masters thesis]. Massey University; 2015. [cited 2021 Mar 05].
Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/10179/7148.
Council of Science Editors:
Lu R. A study to examine the importance of forecast accuracy to supply chain performance, the ocntributing factors and the improvement enablers in practice. [Masters Thesis]. Massey University; 2015. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/10179/7148
University of Sydney
21.
Wang, Zheng.
Solar Power Forecasting
.
Degree: 2019, University of Sydney
URL: http://hdl.handle.net/2123/21248
► Solar energy is a promising environmentally-friendly energy source. Yet its variability affects negatively the large-scale integration into the electricity grid and therefore accurate forecasting of…
(more)
▼ Solar energy is a promising environmentally-friendly energy source. Yet its variability affects negatively the large-scale integration into the electricity grid and therefore accurate forecasting of the power generated by PV systems is needed. The objective of this thesis is to explore the possibility of using machine learning methods to accurately predict solar power. We first explored the potential of instance-based methods and proposed two new methods: the data source weighted nearest neighbour (DWkNN) and the extended Pattern Sequence Forecasting (PSF) algorithms. DWkNN uses multiple data sources and considers their importance by learning the best weights based on previous data. PSF1 and PSF2 extended the standard PSF algorithm deal with data from multiple related time series. Then, we proposed two clustering-based methods for PV power prediction: direct and pair patterns. We used clustering to partition the days into groups with similar weather characteristics and then created a separate PV power prediction model for each group. The direct clustering groups the days based on their weather profiles, while the pair patterns consider the weather type transition between two consecutive days. We also investigated ensemble methods and proposed static and dynamic ensembles of neural networks. We first proposed three strategies for creating static ensembles based on random example and feature sampling, as well as four strategies for creating dynamic ensembles by adaptively updating the weights of the ensemble members based on past performance. We then explored the use of meta-learning to further improve the performance of the dynamic ensembles. The methods proposed in this thesis can be used by PV plant and electricity market operators for decision making, improving the utilisation of the generated PV power, planning maintenance and also facilitating the large-scale integration of PV power in the electricity grid.
Subjects/Keywords: Solar;
Power;
Time;
Series;
Forecast
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Manager
APA (6th Edition):
Wang, Z. (2019). Solar Power Forecasting
. (Thesis). University of Sydney. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/2123/21248
Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation
Chicago Manual of Style (16th Edition):
Wang, Zheng. “Solar Power Forecasting
.” 2019. Thesis, University of Sydney. Accessed March 05, 2021.
http://hdl.handle.net/2123/21248.
Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation
MLA Handbook (7th Edition):
Wang, Zheng. “Solar Power Forecasting
.” 2019. Web. 05 Mar 2021.
Vancouver:
Wang Z. Solar Power Forecasting
. [Internet] [Thesis]. University of Sydney; 2019. [cited 2021 Mar 05].
Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/2123/21248.
Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation
Council of Science Editors:
Wang Z. Solar Power Forecasting
. [Thesis]. University of Sydney; 2019. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/2123/21248
Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation
University of Sydney
22.
Arvan, Meysam.
GUIDED JUDGEMENT FOR DEMAND FORECASTING IN THE PRESENCE OF SALES PROMOTIONS
.
Degree: 2019, University of Sydney
URL: http://hdl.handle.net/2123/20712
► Product forecasts are critical input into procurement, inventory, marketing decisions etc. The use of human judgement is common in the real-world forecasting practice. Human intervention…
(more)
▼ Product forecasts are critical input into procurement, inventory, marketing decisions etc. The use of human judgement is common in the real-world forecasting practice. Human intervention occurs mainly to incorporate contextual information. The literature suggests that a forecasting support system (FSS) that systematically guides the forecaster in applying judgement can improve forecast accuracy. Guidance is the core component of such an FSS. A behaviourally-informed FSS (BIFSS), as defined in this thesis, is an FSS that aims to provide systematic guidance to inform the judgement of a forecaster. This thesis firstly investigates the impact of promotions on product sales and judgemental forecasts using industry data. Then, a novel conceptual framework for developing a BIFSS is presented based on the literature of decision support systems (DSS) and judgemental forecasting literature. Decisional guidance as a crucial element in this framework is selected for further investigation. A lab experiment is employed to examine the effectiveness of two types of guidance, interval guidance and adaptive guidance. The moderating impact of promotions as a major contributor to the complexity of forecasting (shown by using the industry observations) is also considered in the experiment design. Task complexity also varies by changing the noise level in the time series. The results confirm the effectiveness of guidance types in improving forecast accuracy. However, there was not a significant difference between the guidance types. It was also found that providing multiple guidance types does not necessarily result in more accurate forecasts. My analyses provide evidence that guidance is particularly effective under the most complex task setting. The positive effect of guidance under less complex settings is not significant. Providing multiple guidance types can better help forecasters overcome a higher complexity than only providing one guidance type.
Subjects/Keywords: Forecast;
product demand;
Support systems
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Manager
APA (6th Edition):
Arvan, M. (2019). GUIDED JUDGEMENT FOR DEMAND FORECASTING IN THE PRESENCE OF SALES PROMOTIONS
. (Thesis). University of Sydney. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/2123/20712
Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation
Chicago Manual of Style (16th Edition):
Arvan, Meysam. “GUIDED JUDGEMENT FOR DEMAND FORECASTING IN THE PRESENCE OF SALES PROMOTIONS
.” 2019. Thesis, University of Sydney. Accessed March 05, 2021.
http://hdl.handle.net/2123/20712.
Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation
MLA Handbook (7th Edition):
Arvan, Meysam. “GUIDED JUDGEMENT FOR DEMAND FORECASTING IN THE PRESENCE OF SALES PROMOTIONS
.” 2019. Web. 05 Mar 2021.
Vancouver:
Arvan M. GUIDED JUDGEMENT FOR DEMAND FORECASTING IN THE PRESENCE OF SALES PROMOTIONS
. [Internet] [Thesis]. University of Sydney; 2019. [cited 2021 Mar 05].
Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/2123/20712.
Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation
Council of Science Editors:
Arvan M. GUIDED JUDGEMENT FOR DEMAND FORECASTING IN THE PRESENCE OF SALES PROMOTIONS
. [Thesis]. University of Sydney; 2019. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/2123/20712
Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation
University of Sydney
23.
Leung, Henry.
Security Analysts’ Earnings Forecasts: Distributions Normality and a Comparative Analysis of Fitted Distribution Types in the Development of a Surrogate Consensus
.
Degree: 2011, University of Sydney
URL: http://hdl.handle.net/2123/7211
► The employment of IBES (Institutional Brokers’ Estimate System) analysts’ earnings forecast consensus in capital markets research literature presupposes normality in per period, per firm distributions…
(more)
▼ The employment of IBES (Institutional Brokers’ Estimate System) analysts’ earnings forecast consensus in capital markets research literature presupposes normality in per period, per firm distributions of analysts’ earnings estimates on the basis that: (i) the central limit theorem holds true because analysts’ earnings estimates are independently and identically distributed (iid); and (ii) the unweighted consensus mean and/or median are the best estimator(s) of a normal distribution. However, monthly distributions of IBES analysts’ earnings forecasts for all Australian stocks from 11 months through to actual reported earnings between 1988 and 2002 were found to be significantly non-normal, with this result common across four different deflator types; (i) firm’s share price at 11 months prior to actual reported earnings; (ii) firm’s share price at each period; (iii) actual reported earnings; and (iv) average of forecast plus actual. Furthermore, respective distribution skewness and kurtosis were significantly positive in corroboration with evidence of distribution non-normality. These findings are consistent with the principal hypothesis of this thesis, which propounds the contrarian notion that distributions of IBES analysts’ earnings estimates are non-normal because IBES analysts’ earnings forecasts are neither independent nor identically distributed in practice for various reasons: post earnings announcement drift effects; serial correlations of IBES individual analysts forecast revisions; and analyst herding behaviour. Further investigation of the same distributions found that they adhere variously to the Extreme Value distribution, the Uniform distribution and other unspecified non-normal distribution types. This information was utilised to construct a best estimate of distributions, the surrogate consensus, which was found to be more accurate than the IBES consensus for the actual forecast error deflator type. It was benchmarked against four other surrogate consensus generation techniques: weighted consensus based on prior year end’s lead analyst, analysts’ prior accuracy, earnings forecast age and analyst forecast frequency, with none of these alternatives offering improvements over the IBES consensus.
Subjects/Keywords: analyst earnings forecast;
distribution;
accuracy
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Manager
APA (6th Edition):
Leung, H. (2011). Security Analysts’ Earnings Forecasts: Distributions Normality and a Comparative Analysis of Fitted Distribution Types in the Development of a Surrogate Consensus
. (Thesis). University of Sydney. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/2123/7211
Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation
Chicago Manual of Style (16th Edition):
Leung, Henry. “Security Analysts’ Earnings Forecasts: Distributions Normality and a Comparative Analysis of Fitted Distribution Types in the Development of a Surrogate Consensus
.” 2011. Thesis, University of Sydney. Accessed March 05, 2021.
http://hdl.handle.net/2123/7211.
Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation
MLA Handbook (7th Edition):
Leung, Henry. “Security Analysts’ Earnings Forecasts: Distributions Normality and a Comparative Analysis of Fitted Distribution Types in the Development of a Surrogate Consensus
.” 2011. Web. 05 Mar 2021.
Vancouver:
Leung H. Security Analysts’ Earnings Forecasts: Distributions Normality and a Comparative Analysis of Fitted Distribution Types in the Development of a Surrogate Consensus
. [Internet] [Thesis]. University of Sydney; 2011. [cited 2021 Mar 05].
Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/2123/7211.
Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation
Council of Science Editors:
Leung H. Security Analysts’ Earnings Forecasts: Distributions Normality and a Comparative Analysis of Fitted Distribution Types in the Development of a Surrogate Consensus
. [Thesis]. University of Sydney; 2011. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/2123/7211
Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation
University of Kentucky
24.
Hoque, Jawad Mahmud.
An Assessment of Historical Traffic Forecast Accuracy and Sources of Forecast Error.
Degree: 2019, University of Kentucky
URL: https://uknowledge.uky.edu/ce_etds/79
► Transportation infrastructure improvement projects are typically huge and have significant economic and environmental effects. Forecasts of demand of the facility in the form of traffic…
(more)
▼ Transportation infrastructure improvement projects are typically huge and have significant economic and environmental effects. Forecasts of demand of the facility in the form of traffic level help size the project as well as choose between several alternatives. Inaccuracy in these forecasts can thus have a great impact on the efficiency of the operational design and the benefits accrued from the project against the cost. Despite this understanding, evaluation of traffic forecast inaccuracy has been too few, especially for un-tolled roads in the United States. This study, part of a National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP) funded project, bridges this gap in knowledge by analyzing the historical inaccuracy of the traffic forecasts based on a database created as part of the project. The results show a general over-prediction of traffic with actual traffic deviating from forecast by about 17.29% on an average. The study also compares the relative accuracy of forecasts on several categorical variables. Besides enumerating the error in forecasts, this exploration presents the potential factors influencing accuracy. The results from this analysis can help create an uncertainty window around the forecast based on the explanatory variables, which can be an alternate risk analysis technique to sensitivity testing.
Subjects/Keywords: Traffic forecast accuracy; optimism bias in traffic forecast; distribution of forecast error; sources of forecast error.; Civil Engineering; Transportation Engineering
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Manager
APA (6th Edition):
Hoque, J. M. (2019). An Assessment of Historical Traffic Forecast Accuracy and Sources of Forecast Error. (Masters Thesis). University of Kentucky. Retrieved from https://uknowledge.uky.edu/ce_etds/79
Chicago Manual of Style (16th Edition):
Hoque, Jawad Mahmud. “An Assessment of Historical Traffic Forecast Accuracy and Sources of Forecast Error.” 2019. Masters Thesis, University of Kentucky. Accessed March 05, 2021.
https://uknowledge.uky.edu/ce_etds/79.
MLA Handbook (7th Edition):
Hoque, Jawad Mahmud. “An Assessment of Historical Traffic Forecast Accuracy and Sources of Forecast Error.” 2019. Web. 05 Mar 2021.
Vancouver:
Hoque JM. An Assessment of Historical Traffic Forecast Accuracy and Sources of Forecast Error. [Internet] [Masters thesis]. University of Kentucky; 2019. [cited 2021 Mar 05].
Available from: https://uknowledge.uky.edu/ce_etds/79.
Council of Science Editors:
Hoque JM. An Assessment of Historical Traffic Forecast Accuracy and Sources of Forecast Error. [Masters Thesis]. University of Kentucky; 2019. Available from: https://uknowledge.uky.edu/ce_etds/79
Texas A&M University
25.
Li, Yuanyuan.
Predictive Analysis in Electric Distribution Grid: Case Studies on Solar and Energy Price Forecast.
Degree: MS, Electrical Engineering, 2017, Texas A&M University
URL: http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/174754
► The electricity distribution system is undergoing profound changes as the society moves towards more sustainable utilization of energy resources. A common challenge in both supply…
(more)
▼ The electricity distribution system is undergoing profound changes as the society moves towards more sustainable utilization of energy resources. A common challenge in both supply and demand sides is how to provide accurate near term (within a day)
forecast of the uncertainties to enable the distribution grid operation to modernize their decision making and deliver clean, affordable, and reliable electricity services.
This thesis focuses on the common challenge mentioned above, namely, how to improve the predictive capability for distribution system operators and load serving entities (LSEs). In particular, this thesis focuses on two of the major uncertain variables in future distribution grid: solar and electricity price
forecast. Series of data-driven analysis are applied to develop efficient prediction models of these two variables. For the solar power generation prediction, the spatial temporal autoregressive model (ST ARX) is applied to the distribution system by including the neighboring data at nearby locations. Comparing to the benchmark models, the proposed model results in a better prediction accuracy and indicates the strong correlation between optimal neighboring distance and prediction time scale. As for the electricity price prediction, a comprehensive classification model based on decision tree algorithm is developed for the EnergyCoupon system. This algorithm is tested in Houston area with 10 customers and results in a good accuracy.
Advisors/Committee Members: Xie, Le (advisor), Liu, Tie (committee member), Balog, Robert (committee member), Puller, Steven (committee member).
Subjects/Keywords: Electric distribution system; Electricity forecast; Solar generation forecast
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APA ·
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Export
to Zotero / EndNote / Reference
Manager
APA (6th Edition):
Li, Y. (2017). Predictive Analysis in Electric Distribution Grid: Case Studies on Solar and Energy Price Forecast. (Masters Thesis). Texas A&M University. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/174754
Chicago Manual of Style (16th Edition):
Li, Yuanyuan. “Predictive Analysis in Electric Distribution Grid: Case Studies on Solar and Energy Price Forecast.” 2017. Masters Thesis, Texas A&M University. Accessed March 05, 2021.
http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/174754.
MLA Handbook (7th Edition):
Li, Yuanyuan. “Predictive Analysis in Electric Distribution Grid: Case Studies on Solar and Energy Price Forecast.” 2017. Web. 05 Mar 2021.
Vancouver:
Li Y. Predictive Analysis in Electric Distribution Grid: Case Studies on Solar and Energy Price Forecast. [Internet] [Masters thesis]. Texas A&M University; 2017. [cited 2021 Mar 05].
Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/174754.
Council of Science Editors:
Li Y. Predictive Analysis in Electric Distribution Grid: Case Studies on Solar and Energy Price Forecast. [Masters Thesis]. Texas A&M University; 2017. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/174754
26.
Hubert, Thibault.
Prévision de la demande et pilotage des flux en approvisionnement lointain : Demand forecasting and flow management in global sourcing.
Degree: Docteur es, Génie industriel, 2013, Châtenay-Malabry, Ecole centrale de Paris
URL: http://www.theses.fr/2013ECAP0012
► Le Global Sourcing est aujourd'hui en pleine expansion car il offre aux entreprises une source potentielle de compétitivité dans un environnement de plus en plus…
(more)
▼ Le Global Sourcing est aujourd'hui en pleine expansion car il offre aux entreprises une source potentielle de compétitivité dans un environnement de plus en plus concurrentiel. Néanmoins, il génère aussi une complexification des flux et une fragilisation de la Supply Chain Globale. La problématique du Global Sourcing est vaste et touche les différents niveaux de décision de l'entreprise. Pour cela nous nous sommes focalisés dans ce travail sur les aspects tactiques et opérationnels de ce domaine. Nous avons abordé ainsi diverses questions : Quels leviers d'action pour un pilotage efficace des flux en approvisionnement lointain? Comment sécuriser les approvisionnements lointains dans le contexte industriel actuel ? Les politiques classiques de pilotage de flux sont-elles suffisantes pour les approvisionnements lointains ? En collaboration avec les partenaires industriels de la Chaire Supply Chain de l'Ecole Centrale Paris, nous avons abordé différentes facettes de cette problématique. Nous nous sommes intéressés tout d'abord à la prévision comme élément nécessaire au pilotage des flux lointains et nous avons proposé une méthodologie de sélection et de mise à jour de méthodes de prévision. Les délais longs en approvisionnement lointain font que les erreurs de prévision s'amplifient, ce qui nous a amenés à étudier l'erreur prévisionnelle. Nous avons proposé dans ce sens une modélisation fine de cette erreur et de son évolution en fonction de l'horizon temporelle de la prévision. Dans la dernière étape de ce travail, nous avons utilisé cette modélisation de l'incertitude pour piloter efficacement les flux lointains. Nous avons montré sur des cas réels issus de l'entreprise PSA l'efficacité de la méthode proposée en termes de respect du niveau de service avec un niveau de stock largement inférieur aux méthodes classiques.
Global Sourcing is becoming a common practice in industrial activities since it offers companies opportunities to improve its competitiveness in an increasingly competitive business environment. At the same time, it makes the flows more complex and the supply chain more fragile. Global Sourcing thus gives rise to a wide range of issues and impacts different levels of decision making. To address such a problem, we focus on tactical and operational decision making. We attempt to answer a variety of questions: What are possible actions for flow management in global sourcing? How to secure the procurement in the current industrial context? Are classical flow management policies also efficient in global sourcing? In collaboration with the industrial partners of the Chaire Supply Chain at Ecole Centrale Paris, we consider different problems. Firstly, we are interested in demand forecasting, an essential element for flow management in global sourcing and proposed a methodology to select an appropriate forecasting method and to update it dynamically. The fact that the lead times are long in global sourcing makes the forecast less reliable and less and less reliable when the forecast horizon increases, which…
Advisors/Committee Members: Chu, Chengbin (thesis director).
Subjects/Keywords: Prévision; Incertitude prévisionnelle; Pilotage de flux; Forecast; Forecast uncertainty; Flow management
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Manager
APA (6th Edition):
Hubert, T. (2013). Prévision de la demande et pilotage des flux en approvisionnement lointain : Demand forecasting and flow management in global sourcing. (Doctoral Dissertation). Châtenay-Malabry, Ecole centrale de Paris. Retrieved from http://www.theses.fr/2013ECAP0012
Chicago Manual of Style (16th Edition):
Hubert, Thibault. “Prévision de la demande et pilotage des flux en approvisionnement lointain : Demand forecasting and flow management in global sourcing.” 2013. Doctoral Dissertation, Châtenay-Malabry, Ecole centrale de Paris. Accessed March 05, 2021.
http://www.theses.fr/2013ECAP0012.
MLA Handbook (7th Edition):
Hubert, Thibault. “Prévision de la demande et pilotage des flux en approvisionnement lointain : Demand forecasting and flow management in global sourcing.” 2013. Web. 05 Mar 2021.
Vancouver:
Hubert T. Prévision de la demande et pilotage des flux en approvisionnement lointain : Demand forecasting and flow management in global sourcing. [Internet] [Doctoral dissertation]. Châtenay-Malabry, Ecole centrale de Paris; 2013. [cited 2021 Mar 05].
Available from: http://www.theses.fr/2013ECAP0012.
Council of Science Editors:
Hubert T. Prévision de la demande et pilotage des flux en approvisionnement lointain : Demand forecasting and flow management in global sourcing. [Doctoral Dissertation]. Châtenay-Malabry, Ecole centrale de Paris; 2013. Available from: http://www.theses.fr/2013ECAP0012
Rice University
27.
Ramos, Jaime J.
Robust Methods for Forecast Aggregation.
Degree: PhD, Engineering, 2014, Rice University
URL: http://hdl.handle.net/1911/88362
► This study introduces a new forecast aggregation technique. Adding to the well- known difficulties and uncertainty involved in the forecasting process, the aggregation of hundreds…
(more)
▼ This study introduces a new
forecast aggregation technique. Adding to the well- known difficulties and uncertainty involved in the forecasting process, the aggregation of hundreds or thousands of forecasters’ opinions and expert predictions on social, economical and political matters makes the process even more difficult. Simple quan- titative data analytics, least squares regression, and maximum likelihood estimations are not sufficient to handle the dynamics of such data, which includes outliers, clusters of opinions, extreme values, and abrupt change of mind and predictions of forecasters influenced by news, recent events, collaboration or feedback from experts. The meth- ods developed in this work are based on a particular minimum-distance technique called L2E, which is popular in nonparametric density estimation that makes the aggregation robust to clusters of opinions and dramatic changes. Variance-stabilizing transformations are introduced to attain homoscedasticity for L2E regression improv- ing parameter estimation and overall aggregation. New normalization approaches are proposed to use when the aggregated values are unsuitable probabilities, such as values ∈/ [0, 1] and/or do not add to 1. Finally, data visualization techniques and graphical user interfaces (GUIs) are discussed as aid to decision makers in order to understand “single” aggregated
forecast values, obtained from the original big data set analyzed, and the trend of such aggregated forecasts over the forecasting period.
Advisors/Committee Members: Scott, David W. (advisor), Lane, David (committee member), Thompson, James R (committee member).
Subjects/Keywords: robust forecast aggregation; robust normalization; forecast; aggregation; L2E
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APA (6th Edition):
Ramos, J. J. (2014). Robust Methods for Forecast Aggregation. (Doctoral Dissertation). Rice University. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/1911/88362
Chicago Manual of Style (16th Edition):
Ramos, Jaime J. “Robust Methods for Forecast Aggregation.” 2014. Doctoral Dissertation, Rice University. Accessed March 05, 2021.
http://hdl.handle.net/1911/88362.
MLA Handbook (7th Edition):
Ramos, Jaime J. “Robust Methods for Forecast Aggregation.” 2014. Web. 05 Mar 2021.
Vancouver:
Ramos JJ. Robust Methods for Forecast Aggregation. [Internet] [Doctoral dissertation]. Rice University; 2014. [cited 2021 Mar 05].
Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/1911/88362.
Council of Science Editors:
Ramos JJ. Robust Methods for Forecast Aggregation. [Doctoral Dissertation]. Rice University; 2014. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/1911/88362
University of New South Wales
28.
De Oliveira Ferrazoli Ribeiro, Fabio.
Beta forecasting at long horizons.
Degree: Banking & Finance, 2013, University of New South Wales
URL: http://handle.unsw.edu.au/1959.4/53106
;
https://unsworks.unsw.edu.au/fapi/datastream/unsworks:11792/SOURCE01?view=true
► Since the inception of beta as the main risk measure for equity assets, practitioners and academics are required to estimate its future value for uses…
(more)
▼ Since the inception of beta as the main risk measure for equity assets, practitioners and academics are required to estimate its future value for uses such as the calculation of hurdle rates of projects, cost of capital and valuation of equities. With the goal of providing guidance, this thesis follows the recently developed literature on realised betas and the literature on beta forecasting and extends it to evaluate forecasts of betas on long horizons such as 6 months and one year. Our sample is of 15 US stocks from the Dow Jones index with 60 years of data. We implement constant, autoregressive and heterogeneous autoregressive beta forecasting models and compare their accuracy with that of the standard Fama-MacBeth beta (Fama and MacBeth, 1973). We conclude that the autoregressive model with one lag, based on in-sample sizes of 30 years is the most suitable alternative. This model presents the smallest forecasting error (and variance) and is also statistically superior in terms of bias. By implementing the model suggested in this paper, practitioners are able to reduce
forecast error by as much as 30.2% when forecasting 6 months ahead and by as much as 29.8% for forecasts one year ahead when compared to the Fama-MacBeth beta, the industry benchmark over the last 40 years. The economic application of using the autoregressive model is also significant with an estimated increase of 0.54% (0.5%) in cost of equity of firms. This could translate into a 3-6% decrease in the net present value of a five year illustrative investment project.
Advisors/Committee Members: Reeves, Jonathan, Banking & Finance, Australian School of Business, UNSW, Cenesizoglu, Tolga, HEC Montreal.
Subjects/Keywords: Realised volatility; Realised Beta; Beta Forecast; Long-term forecast
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Manager
APA (6th Edition):
De Oliveira Ferrazoli Ribeiro, F. (2013). Beta forecasting at long horizons. (Masters Thesis). University of New South Wales. Retrieved from http://handle.unsw.edu.au/1959.4/53106 ; https://unsworks.unsw.edu.au/fapi/datastream/unsworks:11792/SOURCE01?view=true
Chicago Manual of Style (16th Edition):
De Oliveira Ferrazoli Ribeiro, Fabio. “Beta forecasting at long horizons.” 2013. Masters Thesis, University of New South Wales. Accessed March 05, 2021.
http://handle.unsw.edu.au/1959.4/53106 ; https://unsworks.unsw.edu.au/fapi/datastream/unsworks:11792/SOURCE01?view=true.
MLA Handbook (7th Edition):
De Oliveira Ferrazoli Ribeiro, Fabio. “Beta forecasting at long horizons.” 2013. Web. 05 Mar 2021.
Vancouver:
De Oliveira Ferrazoli Ribeiro F. Beta forecasting at long horizons. [Internet] [Masters thesis]. University of New South Wales; 2013. [cited 2021 Mar 05].
Available from: http://handle.unsw.edu.au/1959.4/53106 ; https://unsworks.unsw.edu.au/fapi/datastream/unsworks:11792/SOURCE01?view=true.
Council of Science Editors:
De Oliveira Ferrazoli Ribeiro F. Beta forecasting at long horizons. [Masters Thesis]. University of New South Wales; 2013. Available from: http://handle.unsw.edu.au/1959.4/53106 ; https://unsworks.unsw.edu.au/fapi/datastream/unsworks:11792/SOURCE01?view=true
University of Pretoria
29.
[No author].
Improving the PEG ratio
.
Degree: 2011, University of Pretoria
URL: http://upetd.up.ac.za/thesis/available/etd-04172011-162534/
► The effectiveness of the PEG ratio as a valuation tool has been a topical debate between market commentators ever since being popularised by Lynch (1989).…
(more)
▼ The effectiveness of the PEG ratio as a valuation
tool has been a topical debate between market commentators ever
since being popularised by Lynch (1989). This study examines the
appropriateness of the fair value criteria of 1.0 (PEGL) in
comparison with a time-series based share specific benchmarking
model (PEGT). Furthermore, influencing factors of analyst
forecasting accuracy, namely: the number of analyst contributions,
forecast dispersion and
forecast horizon, were tested and compared
using sub-set portfolios for each category with the objective of
identifying a possible optimal PEG trading rule strategy. The
outcome showed a consistent outperformance of PEGT portfolios
compared to PEGL portfolios and the market benchmark. Unexpected
results were obtained for the impact of analyst forecasts on the
performance of the PEG ratio with additional literature review
providing possible reasons that analyst optimism may have a more
influencing impact on the PEG ratio than forecasting accuracy.
Finally, an optimised PEG trading rule strategy delivered annual
abnormal returns of 5.4% (CAGR: 19.7%) for a PEGL portfolio, versus
that of 13.7% (CAGR: 28.5%) for a PEGT portfolio. The ensuing
methodology appeared to single out small cap firms with above
market growth prospects. Copyright
Advisors/Committee Members: Prof M Ward (advisor).
Subjects/Keywords: UCTD;
Abnormal returns;
Benchmarking;
Analyst forecast;
Accuracy
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Manager
APA (6th Edition):
author], [. (2011). Improving the PEG ratio
. (Masters Thesis). University of Pretoria. Retrieved from http://upetd.up.ac.za/thesis/available/etd-04172011-162534/
Chicago Manual of Style (16th Edition):
author], [No. “Improving the PEG ratio
.” 2011. Masters Thesis, University of Pretoria. Accessed March 05, 2021.
http://upetd.up.ac.za/thesis/available/etd-04172011-162534/.
MLA Handbook (7th Edition):
author], [No. “Improving the PEG ratio
.” 2011. Web. 05 Mar 2021.
Vancouver:
author] [. Improving the PEG ratio
. [Internet] [Masters thesis]. University of Pretoria; 2011. [cited 2021 Mar 05].
Available from: http://upetd.up.ac.za/thesis/available/etd-04172011-162534/.
Council of Science Editors:
author] [. Improving the PEG ratio
. [Masters Thesis]. University of Pretoria; 2011. Available from: http://upetd.up.ac.za/thesis/available/etd-04172011-162534/
University of Utah
30.
Lammers, Matthew Robert.
Verification of national weather service spot forecasts using surface observations.
Degree: MS, Atmospheric Sciences, 2014, University of Utah
URL: http://content.lib.utah.edu/cdm/singleitem/collection/etd3/id/3093/rec/2894
► Software has been developed to evaluate National Weather Service spot forecasts issued to support prescribed burns and early-stage wildfires. Fire management officials request spot forecasts…
(more)
▼ Software has been developed to evaluate National Weather Service spot forecasts issued to support prescribed burns and early-stage wildfires. Fire management officials request spot forecasts from National Weather Service Weather Forecast Offices to provide detailed guidance as to atmospheric conditions in the vicinity of planned prescribed burns as well aswildfires that do not have incident meteorologists on site. This open source software with online display capabilities is used to examine an extensive set of spot forecasts of maximum temperature, minimum relative humidity, and maximum wind speed from April 2009 throughNovember 2013 nationwide. The forecast values are compared to the closest available surface observations at stations installed primarily for fire weather and aviation applications. The accuracy of the spot forecasts is compared to those available from the National DigitalForecast Database (NDFD).Spot forecasts for selected prescribed burns and wildfires are used to illustrate issues associated with the verification procedures. Cumulative statistics for National Weather Service County Warning Areas and for the nation are presented. Basic error and accuracy metrics for all available spot forecasts and the entire nation indicate that the skill of the spot forecasts is higher than that available from the NDFD, with the greatest improvement for maximum temperature and the least improvement for maximum wind speed.
Subjects/Keywords: Fire weather; Forecast verification; Weather forecasting; Wildfire
Record Details
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APA ·
Chicago ·
MLA ·
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Export
to Zotero / EndNote / Reference
Manager
APA (6th Edition):
Lammers, M. R. (2014). Verification of national weather service spot forecasts using surface observations. (Masters Thesis). University of Utah. Retrieved from http://content.lib.utah.edu/cdm/singleitem/collection/etd3/id/3093/rec/2894
Chicago Manual of Style (16th Edition):
Lammers, Matthew Robert. “Verification of national weather service spot forecasts using surface observations.” 2014. Masters Thesis, University of Utah. Accessed March 05, 2021.
http://content.lib.utah.edu/cdm/singleitem/collection/etd3/id/3093/rec/2894.
MLA Handbook (7th Edition):
Lammers, Matthew Robert. “Verification of national weather service spot forecasts using surface observations.” 2014. Web. 05 Mar 2021.
Vancouver:
Lammers MR. Verification of national weather service spot forecasts using surface observations. [Internet] [Masters thesis]. University of Utah; 2014. [cited 2021 Mar 05].
Available from: http://content.lib.utah.edu/cdm/singleitem/collection/etd3/id/3093/rec/2894.
Council of Science Editors:
Lammers MR. Verification of national weather service spot forecasts using surface observations. [Masters Thesis]. University of Utah; 2014. Available from: http://content.lib.utah.edu/cdm/singleitem/collection/etd3/id/3093/rec/2894
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Open Access Theses and Dissertations