subject:(Climate model)

University of Melbourne

1. Bodman, Roger William. Estimating uncertainties in future global warming using a simple climate model.

Degree: 2011, University of Melbourne

► This research has investigated the sources of uncertainty that apply to global–mean temperature change projections. Uncertainties in climate system processes have led to a wide… (more)

▼ This research has investigated the sources of uncertainty that apply to global–mean temperature change projections. Uncertainties in climate system processes have led to a wide range of projections for future temperature changes, which are compounded by the range of possible future greenhouse–gas emissions. For example, the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report reported that, by 2100, the global–mean temperature increase relative to 1990 is likely to be in the range 1.1°C to 6.4°C, a result that reflects uncertainties in both future emissions and the response of the climate system. However, such a wide range is not particularly helpful for policy and planning purposes, especially in the absence of probabilities. This research has investigated the reasons for this wide range, assessed the sources of uncertainty and developed a method for producing probabilistic temperature change projections. A simple climate model was selected as the research tool for this investigation, instead of a complex three–dimensional model. The model chosen was the latest version of MAGICC (Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse–gas Induced Climate Change), which represents many of the important processes that determine variations of the Earth’s climate, including radiative forcing, heat uptake in the ocean and the carbon cycle, albeit highly simplified and only for temperature changes at the global scale. One of the features of this research is the development of alternative approaches to constraining the model’s primary climate system and carbon cycle parameters. It was found that indices using land minus ocean and Northern Hemisphere minus Southern Hemisphere temperature anomalies are only weakly correlated with global–mean temperatures, and therefore provide additional independent information that can assist in better estimating some model parameters. A ratio of sea–surface temperature to ocean heat content was also found to have a low correlation to the sea– surface temperatures, creating an alternate measure for constraining ocean parameters. This ratio, as well as the vertical ocean temperature change profile, led to revised estimates for the ocean vertical diffusivity parameter, resulting in a new estimate that is nearly a quarter of the previously standard setting used with the Third and Fourth IPCC assessment report versions of MAGICC. In addition to constraining individual model parameters with targeted observational information, a Bayesian statistical technique, the Monte Carlo Metropolis–Hastings algorithm (MCMH), was applied to constraining groups of model parameters using historical observations. One advantage of the MCMH technique is that it addresses uncertainty that arises from observations, model structure and climate system response. This resulted in probability distributions for the key model parameters which then allowed the production of probabilistic…

Subjects/Keywords: climate change; simple climate model

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APA (6^th Edition):

Bodman, R. W. (2011). Estimating uncertainties in future global warming using a simple climate model. (Doctoral Dissertation). University of Melbourne. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/11343/37057

Chicago Manual of Style (16^th Edition):

Bodman, Roger William. “Estimating uncertainties in future global warming using a simple climate model.” 2011. Doctoral Dissertation, University of Melbourne. Accessed January 18, 2021. http://hdl.handle.net/11343/37057.

MLA Handbook (7^th Edition):

Bodman, Roger William. “Estimating uncertainties in future global warming using a simple climate model.” 2011. Web. 18 Jan 2021.

Vancouver:

Bodman RW. Estimating uncertainties in future global warming using a simple climate model. [Internet] [Doctoral dissertation]. University of Melbourne; 2011. [cited 2021 Jan 18]. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/11343/37057.

Council of Science Editors:

Bodman RW. Estimating uncertainties in future global warming using a simple climate model. [Doctoral Dissertation]. University of Melbourne; 2011. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/11343/37057

Oregon State University

2. Alder, Jay R. Simulating past, present, and future changes in ENSO : a model evaluation and data-model comparison.

Degree: PhD, Geography, 2011, Oregon State University

URL: http://hdl.handle.net/1957/20580

► This thesis presents the results of a formal evaluation of a new AOGCM, GENMOM, demonstrating its ability to simulate present-day climate and ENSO dynamics. The… (more)

▼ This thesis presents the results of a formal evaluation of a new AOGCM, GENMOM, demonstrating its ability to simulate present-day climate and ENSO dynamics. The model is applied to simulate climate for the Last Glacial Maximum, deglacial, and Holocene time periods. The model output is evaluated against the best available proxy reconstructions in a detailed data-model comparison. ENSO strength is analyzed in seven paleo simulations and compared to coral and laminated lake sediment proxy records to provide an understanding of how ENSO related mechanisms varied in the past and how they vary under increased atmospheric CO₂ forced global warming. The GENMOM simulated present-day is found to be on par with three models used in the IPCC AR4 assessment and is comparable with reanalysis products (e.g, NCEP2). Atmospheric features such as the jet stream structure and major semipermanent sea level pressure centers are well simulated as is the mean planetary-scale wind structure that is needed to produce the correct position of stormtracks. Most ocean surface currents are reproduced except where they are not resolvable at T31 resolution. Overall, GENMOM captures the observed gradients and spatial distributions of annual surface temperature and precipitation and the simulations are on par with other AOGCMs. Deficiencies in the GENMOM present-day simulation include a warm bias in the surface temperature over the southern oceans, a split in the ITCZ and weaker-thanobserved overturning circulation. GENMOM produces a global temperature bias of 0.6 °C. GENMOM is demonstrated to capture ENSO dynamics similar to eight AOGCMs that were evaluated in the IPCC AR4. The Niño 3 - 4 indices have a standard deviation within 0.3 °C of the observations, indicating GENMOM is producing variability in the tropical Pacifc that is comparable to observations. GENMOM produces present-day ENSO events with an average period of 5.6 years, which is within the 2 – 7 range exhibited in the observed historical record. The mid-Holocene (6ka) and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21ka) simulations are compared to the best available proxy reconstructions for sea surface temperature, precipitation and net moisture to ensure the simulations are plausible. This thesis finds that the model is in good agreement over broad spatial scales, with regional discrepancies between the model and proxy data. Coral and laminated lake sediment proxy records indicate mid-Holocene ENSO strength was reduced by 15 - 60%, offering a scenario in which ENSO-related components can be tested in climates different than present-day, thereby providing context for future changes in ENSO. The mid-Holocene simulations exhibit a 20% reduction of ENSO strength, caused by a precession forced enhancement of the Indian summer monsoon, which strengthened ENSO-related Bjerknes feedbacks. ENSO strength in the LGM is weakened by ~25%, which is not found to be caused by changes in equatorial Pacific dynamics but rather mean state cooling that weakens the tropical thermocline. The 2x and 4x simulations… Advisors/Committee Members: Hostetler, Steve (advisor), Pollard, David (committee member).

Subjects/Keywords: global climate model

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APA (6^th Edition):

Alder, J. R. (2011). Simulating past, present, and future changes in ENSO : a model evaluation and data-model comparison. (Doctoral Dissertation). Oregon State University. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/1957/20580

Chicago Manual of Style (16^th Edition):

Alder, Jay R. “Simulating past, present, and future changes in ENSO : a model evaluation and data-model comparison.” 2011. Doctoral Dissertation, Oregon State University. Accessed January 18, 2021. http://hdl.handle.net/1957/20580.

MLA Handbook (7^th Edition):

Alder, Jay R. “Simulating past, present, and future changes in ENSO : a model evaluation and data-model comparison.” 2011. Web. 18 Jan 2021.

Vancouver:

Alder JR. Simulating past, present, and future changes in ENSO : a model evaluation and data-model comparison. [Internet] [Doctoral dissertation]. Oregon State University; 2011. [cited 2021 Jan 18]. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/1957/20580.

Council of Science Editors:

Alder JR. Simulating past, present, and future changes in ENSO : a model evaluation and data-model comparison. [Doctoral Dissertation]. Oregon State University; 2011. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/1957/20580

Oregon State University

3. Cannady-Shultz, Kenneth R. Are Watershed Management Plans Selected and Preferred by Stakeholders Considering Current Climate Conditions Robust against Climate Change Scenarios? A Sensitivity Study of Stakeholders Spatially-Explicit Preferences.

Degree: MS, 2017, Oregon State University

URL: http://hdl.handle.net/1957/61904

► In the light of the changing climate, the importance of designing effective watershed management plans that are likely to be implemented is becoming ever more… (more)

▼ In the light of the changing climate, the importance of designing effective watershed management plans that are likely to be implemented is becoming ever more important. This research introduces a new concept, consensus, for incorporation into stakeholder-guided interactive optimization of watershed management plans. User preferences were mathematically simulated based upon scenarios of possible stakeholder attitudes in sub-basins of an agricultural watershed in Indiana, USA, and incorporated into an existing interactive genetic algorithm (GA) framework. These simulated users along with the watershed hydrologic model were used to evaluate overall preference for and performance of hundreds of different possible distributions of wetlands throughout the Eagle Creek Watershed, weighing cost and environmental concerns on and off of their property. Solutions generated using the interactive GA with the consensus measure performed at least as well as the non-interactively generated baseline solutions, and many out-performed the baseline solutions, with higher peak flow reductions for similar total wetland areas. This result is opposite of what was expected. Previous research has characterized adding stakeholders to the optimization process as a “tradeoff” process, where users sacrifice performance for certain intangible factors. In addition to adding a consensus measure to the interactive GA as an additional objective function, this research also developed a method to select short climate model realizations that best represent extreme flow events arising from climate extremes in the projected future. When the interactively and non-interactively generated solutions were subjected to these extreme climate years, their performance was reduced, even when adjusted for the different magnitudes of expected maximum peak flows. Data issues arising from an interruption to the interactive optimization at generation 30 likely led to some irregularities in the results of this research. Nevertheless, it appears that designing watershed management plans that perform well in the present does not necessarily lead to strong performance in the projected future. Any attempts to address climate change in management plans must do so explicitly. Advisors/Committee Members: Babbar-Sebens, Meghna (advisor), Istok, Jonathan D. (committee member).

Subjects/Keywords: Climate Model Ensemble

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APA (6^th Edition):

Cannady-Shultz, K. R. (2017). Are Watershed Management Plans Selected and Preferred by Stakeholders Considering Current Climate Conditions Robust against Climate Change Scenarios? A Sensitivity Study of Stakeholders Spatially-Explicit Preferences. (Masters Thesis). Oregon State University. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/1957/61904

Chicago Manual of Style (16^th Edition):

Cannady-Shultz, Kenneth R. “Are Watershed Management Plans Selected and Preferred by Stakeholders Considering Current Climate Conditions Robust against Climate Change Scenarios? A Sensitivity Study of Stakeholders Spatially-Explicit Preferences.” 2017. Masters Thesis, Oregon State University. Accessed January 18, 2021. http://hdl.handle.net/1957/61904.

MLA Handbook (7^th Edition):

Cannady-Shultz, Kenneth R. “Are Watershed Management Plans Selected and Preferred by Stakeholders Considering Current Climate Conditions Robust against Climate Change Scenarios? A Sensitivity Study of Stakeholders Spatially-Explicit Preferences.” 2017. Web. 18 Jan 2021.

Vancouver:

Cannady-Shultz KR. Are Watershed Management Plans Selected and Preferred by Stakeholders Considering Current Climate Conditions Robust against Climate Change Scenarios? A Sensitivity Study of Stakeholders Spatially-Explicit Preferences. [Internet] [Masters thesis]. Oregon State University; 2017. [cited 2021 Jan 18]. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/1957/61904.

Council of Science Editors:

Cannady-Shultz KR. Are Watershed Management Plans Selected and Preferred by Stakeholders Considering Current Climate Conditions Robust against Climate Change Scenarios? A Sensitivity Study of Stakeholders Spatially-Explicit Preferences. [Masters Thesis]. Oregon State University; 2017. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/1957/61904

University of New South Wales

4. Bates, Michael. A dynamic, embedded Lagrangian model for ocean climate models.

Degree: Climate Change Research Centre (CCRC), 2011, University of New South Wales

URL: http://handle.unsw.edu.au/1959.4/52001 ; https://unsworks.unsw.edu.au/fapi/datastream/unsworks:10671/SOURCE01?view=true

► A framework is developed for embedding a Lagrangian sub-model into an ocean climatemodel that has a fixed horizontal Eulerian grid. The embedded Lagrangian model can… (more)

▼ A framework is developed for embedding a Lagrangian sub-model into an ocean climatemodel that has a fixed horizontal Eulerian grid. The embedded Lagrangian model can beused to explicitly represent processes that are at the subgrid scale to the Eulerian. TheLagrangian framework has a number of potential applications. The embedded Lagrangianframework is applied to two different applications in level coordinate ocean climate models,namely open ocean deep convection and gravity driven downslope flows. Both of theseprocesses are subgrid scale in the present generation of global scale level coordinate oceanmodels.To embed the Lagrangian model in order to represent open ocean deep convection andgravity driven downslope flows, it is necessary to develop a strategy to partition the massand momentum of the model into an Eulerian component and a Lagrangian component.The Lagrangian parcels, called “blobs,” can be moved around in three dimensions usinga more appropriate set of dynamics and may also interact with the Eulerian model.The technique is not a parameterisation, but rather a framework in which a multitudeof parameterisations may be implemented. It is thus possible to develop parameterisationswhich are analogous to many existing and schemes. Initially, several existing parameterisa-tions are emulated. Then, two schemes are developed, one which models open ocean deepconvection, and the other (based on a streamtube model) models gravity driven downslopeflows.The framework is also tested in several well known idealised test cases. In the testcase for deep convection, a 100m resolution non-hydrostatic model of a deep convectivepatch is used and it is shown that the use of the Lagrangian blobs improved the fidelityof the simulation of a 2km resolution hydrostatic simulation when compared to the useof convective adjustment. Two test cases are used to examine the performance of thescheme for gravity driven downslope flows. The Lagrangain scheme significantly improvesthe representation of the physics of a plume on a uniform slope and the resultant largescale circulation. Advisors/Committee Members: England, Matthew, Climate Change Research Centre (CCRC), Faculty of Science, UNSW, Griffies, Stephen, NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory.

Subjects/Keywords: Lagrangian model; Ocean climate model; Eulerian model

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APA (6^th Edition):

Bates, M. (2011). A dynamic, embedded Lagrangian model for ocean climate models. (Doctoral Dissertation). University of New South Wales. Retrieved from http://handle.unsw.edu.au/1959.4/52001 ; https://unsworks.unsw.edu.au/fapi/datastream/unsworks:10671/SOURCE01?view=true

Chicago Manual of Style (16^th Edition):

Bates, Michael. “A dynamic, embedded Lagrangian model for ocean climate models.” 2011. Doctoral Dissertation, University of New South Wales. Accessed January 18, 2021. http://handle.unsw.edu.au/1959.4/52001 ; https://unsworks.unsw.edu.au/fapi/datastream/unsworks:10671/SOURCE01?view=true.

MLA Handbook (7^th Edition):

Bates, Michael. “A dynamic, embedded Lagrangian model for ocean climate models.” 2011. Web. 18 Jan 2021.

Vancouver:

Bates M. A dynamic, embedded Lagrangian model for ocean climate models. [Internet] [Doctoral dissertation]. University of New South Wales; 2011. [cited 2021 Jan 18]. Available from: http://handle.unsw.edu.au/1959.4/52001 ; https://unsworks.unsw.edu.au/fapi/datastream/unsworks:10671/SOURCE01?view=true.

Council of Science Editors:

Bates M. A dynamic, embedded Lagrangian model for ocean climate models. [Doctoral Dissertation]. University of New South Wales; 2011. Available from: http://handle.unsw.edu.au/1959.4/52001 ; https://unsworks.unsw.edu.au/fapi/datastream/unsworks:10671/SOURCE01?view=true

University of Colorado

5. Yettella, Vineel. The Role of Internal Variability in Climate Change Projections Within an Initial Condition Climate Model Ensemble.

Degree: PhD, 2018, University of Colorado

URL: https://scholar.colorado.edu/atoc_gradetds/86

► Unforced internal variability abounds in the climate system and often confounds the identification of climate change due to external forcings. Given that greenhouse gas… (more)

▼ Unforced internal variability abounds in the climate system and often confounds the identification of climate change due to external forcings. Given that greenhouse gas concentrations are projected to increase for the foreseeable future, separating forced climate change from internal variability is a key concern with important implications. Here, we leverage a 40-member ensemble, the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) to investigate the influence of internal variability on the detection of forced changes in two climate phenomena. First, using cyclone identification and compositing techniques within the CESM-LE, we investigate precipitation changes in extratropical cyclones under greenhouse gas forcing and the effect of internal variability on the detection of these changes. We find that the ensemble projects increased cyclone precipitation under twenty-first century business-as-usual greenhouse gas forcing and this response exceeds internal variability in both near- and far- futures. Further, we find that these changes are almost entirely driven by increases in cyclone moisture. Next, we explore the role of internal variability in projections of the annual cycle of surface temperature over Northern Hemisphere land. Internal variability strongly confounds forced changes in the annual cycle over many regions of the Northern Hemisphere. Changes over Europe, North Africa and Siberia, however, are large and easily detectable and further, are remarkably robust across model ensembles from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) archive. Using a simple energy balance model, we find that changes in the annual cycle over the three regions are mostly driven by changes in surface heat fluxes. The thesis also presents a novel ensemble-based framework for diagnosing forced changes in regional climate variability. Changes in climate variability are commonly assessed in terms of changes in the variances of climate variables. The covariance response has received much less attention, despite the existence of large-scale modes of variability that induce covariations in climate variables over a wide range of spatial scales. Addressing this, the framework facilitiates a unified assessment of forced changes in the regional variances and covariances of climate variables. Advisors/Committee Members: Jennifer E. Kay, Jeffrey B. Weiss, Katja Friedrich, Will Kleiber, Andrew Gettelman.

Subjects/Keywords: climate change; climate model ensembles; climate models; climate variability; initial condition climate model ensembles; internal variability; Atmospheric Sciences; Climate

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APA (6^th Edition):

Yettella, V. (2018). The Role of Internal Variability in Climate Change Projections Within an Initial Condition Climate Model Ensemble. (Doctoral Dissertation). University of Colorado. Retrieved from https://scholar.colorado.edu/atoc_gradetds/86

Chicago Manual of Style (16^th Edition):

Yettella, Vineel. “The Role of Internal Variability in Climate Change Projections Within an Initial Condition Climate Model Ensemble.” 2018. Doctoral Dissertation, University of Colorado. Accessed January 18, 2021. https://scholar.colorado.edu/atoc_gradetds/86.

MLA Handbook (7^th Edition):

Yettella, Vineel. “The Role of Internal Variability in Climate Change Projections Within an Initial Condition Climate Model Ensemble.” 2018. Web. 18 Jan 2021.

Vancouver:

Yettella V. The Role of Internal Variability in Climate Change Projections Within an Initial Condition Climate Model Ensemble. [Internet] [Doctoral dissertation]. University of Colorado; 2018. [cited 2021 Jan 18]. Available from: https://scholar.colorado.edu/atoc_gradetds/86.

Council of Science Editors:

Yettella V. The Role of Internal Variability in Climate Change Projections Within an Initial Condition Climate Model Ensemble. [Doctoral Dissertation]. University of Colorado; 2018. Available from: https://scholar.colorado.edu/atoc_gradetds/86

Texas A&M University

6. Yin, Zhengcong. Effect of Climate Change on the Precipitation Patterns in the Houston Metropolitan Area.

Degree: MS, Water Management and Hydrological Science, 2016, Texas A&M University

URL: http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/174262

► Because extreme precipitation poses a potential threat to local water resource systems, this study predicts and analyzes future precipitation in the Houston area. The Modified… (more)

▼ Because extreme precipitation poses a potential threat to local water resource systems, this study predicts and analyzes future precipitation in the Houston area. The Modified Bartlett-Lewis Rectangular Pulse (MBLRP) model was utilized to generate stochastic precipitation based on source data. Observed precipitation of seven rainfall stations around the Houston area and daily precipitation data extracted from Global Circulation Model (GCM) were used as source data. With respect to the statistics of precipitation, the MBLRP model reproduced the mean, variance and probability of zero rainfall well, but lag-1 autocorrelation coefficient was not reproduced well. With low frequency events, the MBLRP model tended to overestimate extreme precipitation. As for the duration curve, the MBLRP model performed well for reproducing precipitation events at probabilities larger than 1%, but it had a limited ability to reproduce the low frequency events. Compared to the MBLRP model, the GCM exhibited more uncertainty because of a tendency to systematically underestimate the amount of precipitation and annual hourly extreme value for different accumulation levels. The usage of the statistics relationship equations of observed precipitation for different accumulation levels introduced more uncertainty into the whole process, namely overestimation of precipitation. Among the three sources of uncertainty: the MBLRP method, the GCM, and the statistics relationship equations, the GCM, which represents the source of data, introduced more uncertainty into the prediction results. Climate change has some impact on precipitation in the future in terms of changes in rainfall frequency and mean amount of rainfall. The duration curves indicate that the amount of future daily precipitation is larger than the present under the same probabilities. The annual hourly extreme precipitation largely depends on the local precipitation pattern and the selected model rather than the effect of climate change. Both the duration curve analysis and the frequency analysis show that the effect of climate change on precipitation is relatively small in the Houston area. This study provides a framework for estimating the effect of climate change on precipitation, which can be applied to any area with historic data available. Advisors/Committee Members: Olivera, Francisco (advisor), Cahill, Anthony T. (committee member), Quiring, Steven M. (committee member).

Subjects/Keywords: Precipitation; Climate Change; Stochastic Model

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APA (6^th Edition):

Yin, Z. (2016). Effect of Climate Change on the Precipitation Patterns in the Houston Metropolitan Area. (Masters Thesis). Texas A&M University. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/174262

Chicago Manual of Style (16^th Edition):

Yin, Zhengcong. “Effect of Climate Change on the Precipitation Patterns in the Houston Metropolitan Area.” 2016. Masters Thesis, Texas A&M University. Accessed January 18, 2021. http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/174262.

MLA Handbook (7^th Edition):

Yin, Zhengcong. “Effect of Climate Change on the Precipitation Patterns in the Houston Metropolitan Area.” 2016. Web. 18 Jan 2021.

Vancouver:

Yin Z. Effect of Climate Change on the Precipitation Patterns in the Houston Metropolitan Area. [Internet] [Masters thesis]. Texas A&M University; 2016. [cited 2021 Jan 18]. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/174262.

Council of Science Editors:

Yin Z. Effect of Climate Change on the Precipitation Patterns in the Houston Metropolitan Area. [Masters Thesis]. Texas A&M University; 2016. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/174262

Addis Ababa University

7. ABEBE, KEBEDE. THE ROLE OF MOISTURE SCHEME IN REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELLING OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE HORN OF AFRICA .

Degree: 2012, Addis Ababa University

URL: http://etd.aau.edu.et/dspace/handle/123456789/1307

► This study aims to improve the capability of the latest Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4) to simulate the precipitation over the Horn of Africa.… (more)

Subjects/Keywords: Regional Climate Model; moisture scheme

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APA (6^th Edition):

ABEBE, K. (2012). THE ROLE OF MOISTURE SCHEME IN REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELLING OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE HORN OF AFRICA . (Thesis). Addis Ababa University. Retrieved from http://etd.aau.edu.et/dspace/handle/123456789/1307

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Chicago Manual of Style (16^th Edition):

ABEBE, KEBEDE. “THE ROLE OF MOISTURE SCHEME IN REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELLING OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE HORN OF AFRICA .” 2012. Thesis, Addis Ababa University. Accessed January 18, 2021. http://etd.aau.edu.et/dspace/handle/123456789/1307.

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

MLA Handbook (7^th Edition):

ABEBE, KEBEDE. “THE ROLE OF MOISTURE SCHEME IN REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELLING OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE HORN OF AFRICA .” 2012. Web. 18 Jan 2021.

Vancouver:

ABEBE K. THE ROLE OF MOISTURE SCHEME IN REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELLING OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE HORN OF AFRICA . [Internet] [Thesis]. Addis Ababa University; 2012. [cited 2021 Jan 18]. Available from: http://etd.aau.edu.et/dspace/handle/123456789/1307.

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Council of Science Editors:

ABEBE K. THE ROLE OF MOISTURE SCHEME IN REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELLING OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE HORN OF AFRICA . [Thesis]. Addis Ababa University; 2012. Available from: http://etd.aau.edu.et/dspace/handle/123456789/1307

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

8. Coburn, Jacob. Statistical Downscaling For The Northern Great Plains: A Comparison Of Bias Correction And Redundancy Analysis.

Degree: MS, Earth System Science & Policy, 2015, University of North Dakota

URL: https://commons.und.edu/theses/1756

► The climate of the Earth is changing, and is primarily a result of our rampant industrialization over the past two centuries. These changes have… (more)

▼ The climate of the Earth is changing, and is primarily a result of our rampant industrialization over the past two centuries. These changes have manifested themselves in many ways over the whole of the Earth’s surface and sub-systems, leading to the need to understand the changes and predict future outcomes. Coupled climate and general circulation - Earth system models (GCMs) allow for the analysis of dynamically active simulations over the whole of the planet, yet are limited by computational power. The model grids are coarse by design to perform within these computational constraints, which enables them to function and provide information at continental and larger scales, but which limit their ability to offer information for regional and local environments. Dynamical models created with higher resolutions allow for regional climate modeling yet are also limited by computational constraints and require detailed information to run. Statistical downscaling seeks to bridge the gap between coarse GCM grids by utilizing observational data and statistical models to remove the biases from the data at the local level. There have been several types of statistical methods applied to this task over many different regions with some success. The goal of this study is to utilize two methods in particular, bias-corrected spatial disaggregation (BCSD) and redundancy analysis (RDA), to downscale maximum and minimum temperature, as well as precipitation, for the Northern Great Plains (NGP) region. These methods are calibrated over the period 1950 – 1970 using a 1/8 degree gridded dataset for 17 GCMs, then applied to a verification period (1970 – 1999) and compared to observations over that period to assess the downscaled models skill in capturing local NGP variability. These methods are also applied to future model runs forced via the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) low end (2.6), median (4.5) and high end (8.5) 21st Century forcings, which provides possible outlooks for local stakeholders over the coming decades. It is found that BCSD does well in downscaling temperature and precipitation, as well as their various metrics. RDA provides more mixed success, with good skill demonstrated for temperatures but a strong wet bias in precipitation. It is noted, however, that RDA yielded better correlations to the observations. Future scenarios show broad ranges of projected outcomes that, as expected, increase with increasing forcing, though temperature shows stronger changes than precipitation, and BCSD exhibits higher sensitivity than RDA. Future research may help further constrain the results of these downscaling methods, particularly RDA, by adopting further bias correction to the results. Advisors/Committee Members: Andrei Kirilenko.

Subjects/Keywords: climate model; downscaling; statistics

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APA (6^th Edition):

Coburn, J. (2015). Statistical Downscaling For The Northern Great Plains: A Comparison Of Bias Correction And Redundancy Analysis. (Masters Thesis). University of North Dakota. Retrieved from https://commons.und.edu/theses/1756

Chicago Manual of Style (16^th Edition):

Coburn, Jacob. “Statistical Downscaling For The Northern Great Plains: A Comparison Of Bias Correction And Redundancy Analysis.” 2015. Masters Thesis, University of North Dakota. Accessed January 18, 2021. https://commons.und.edu/theses/1756.

MLA Handbook (7^th Edition):

Coburn, Jacob. “Statistical Downscaling For The Northern Great Plains: A Comparison Of Bias Correction And Redundancy Analysis.” 2015. Web. 18 Jan 2021.

Vancouver:

Coburn J. Statistical Downscaling For The Northern Great Plains: A Comparison Of Bias Correction And Redundancy Analysis. [Internet] [Masters thesis]. University of North Dakota; 2015. [cited 2021 Jan 18]. Available from: https://commons.und.edu/theses/1756.

Council of Science Editors:

Coburn J. Statistical Downscaling For The Northern Great Plains: A Comparison Of Bias Correction And Redundancy Analysis. [Masters Thesis]. University of North Dakota; 2015. Available from: https://commons.und.edu/theses/1756

9. Alexander, Paul John. Essays on Urban Climate Model Evaluation and Application.

Degree: 2016, RIAN

URL: http://eprints.maynoothuniversity.ie/7583/

► The field of urban climatology as a subfield of atmospheric science / physical geography has developed significantly over the past 3 decades. Major advances have… (more)

▼ The field of urban climatology as a subfield of atmospheric science / physical geography has developed significantly over the past 3 decades. Major advances have occurred in the theoretical understanding of the urban effect at multiple spatial and temporal scales, as well as in empirical work seeking to observe and ultimately predict urban scale phenomenon. It is this latter development, particularly in respect to urban heat and moisture, that forms the basis of this work. Less than 5 years ago, the concept of partitioning the urban area into distinct geographic units based on the potential thermal modification of the near surface climate was proposed within the field to bring greater rigor, clarity and transferability to observations made within urban areas. The Local Climate Zone (LCZ) approach has since been applied in multiple cities globally, which has demonstrated its efficacy in understanding the urban heat island (UHI) effect through observations and transferring those results across multiple cities. However as with global scale temperature anomalies, the UHI can be viewed as symptomatic of the underlying processes rather than purely as a response i.e. while we now are capable of observing enhanced air temperatures around cities, addressing the issue requires a deeper understanding of the processes that give rise to this phenomenon, particularly if solutions are to be transferred into urban planning practices and environmental policies. To that end, urban climate models are an invaluable tool for examining urban processes in more detail. However, their application in urban areas (particularly for planning problems) remains ad hoc and unsystematic. In fact, many cities in the economically developing world lack even basic data describing (i) the underlying city, its sealed surface extent, vegetation, building materials and so forth and/or (ii) knowledge of the overlying atmosphere in and around the city, required to apply such models. In this collection of papers, a formal modelling and evaluation approach is proposed, elaborated on and applied which utilises the LCZ system. While LCZs were designed strictly for observations of the air temperature at 2m, due to its generality and resulting uptake within the urban climate community, it is argued to be an effective approach for modelling, particularly in data poor settings. The LCZ approach is linked with the Surface Urban Energy and Water Balance Scheme (SUEWS) model, a mid-complex urban energy and water balance model. Hence, the approach is referred to as the LCZ-SUEWS approach. The application of the approach primarily focuses on Dublin city (Ireland). This was done as the city houses three (2 ongoing and 1 retired) eddy-covariance flux towers used to evaluate the approach, however the results are intended to be transferrable to other domains. Three primary conclusions can be drawn from this body of work. Firstly, the LCZ-SUEWS approach performs equally well in data poor, data rich settings, meaning the approach can be applied anywhere to provide an initial…

Subjects/Keywords: urban climate; model evaluation; application

Record Details Similar Records Cite « Share

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APA · Chicago · MLA · Vancouver · CSE | Export to Zotero / EndNote / Reference Manager

APA (6^th Edition):

Alexander, P. J. (2016). Essays on Urban Climate Model Evaluation and Application. (Thesis). RIAN. Retrieved from http://eprints.maynoothuniversity.ie/7583/

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Chicago Manual of Style (16^th Edition):

Alexander, Paul John. “Essays on Urban Climate Model Evaluation and Application.” 2016. Thesis, RIAN. Accessed January 18, 2021. http://eprints.maynoothuniversity.ie/7583/.

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

MLA Handbook (7^th Edition):

Alexander, Paul John. “Essays on Urban Climate Model Evaluation and Application.” 2016. Web. 18 Jan 2021.

Vancouver:

Alexander PJ. Essays on Urban Climate Model Evaluation and Application. [Internet] [Thesis]. RIAN; 2016. [cited 2021 Jan 18]. Available from: http://eprints.maynoothuniversity.ie/7583/.

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Council of Science Editors:

Alexander PJ. Essays on Urban Climate Model Evaluation and Application. [Thesis]. RIAN; 2016. Available from: http://eprints.maynoothuniversity.ie/7583/

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

10. Alexander, Paul John. Essays on Urban Climate Model Evaluation and Application.

Degree: 2016, RIAN

URL: http://mural.maynoothuniversity.ie/7583/

► The field of urban climatology as a subfield of atmospheric science / physical geography has developed significantly over the past 3 decades. Major advances have… (more)

▼ The field of urban climatology as a subfield of atmospheric science / physical geography has developed significantly over the past 3 decades. Major advances have occurred in the theoretical understanding of the urban effect at multiple spatial and temporal scales, as well as in empirical work seeking to observe and ultimately predict urban scale phenomenon. It is this latter development, particularly in respect to urban heat and moisture, that forms the basis of this work. Less than 5 years ago, the concept of partitioning the urban area into distinct geographic units based on the potential thermal modification of the near surface climate was proposed within the field to bring greater rigor, clarity and transferability to observations made within urban areas. The Local Climate Zone (LCZ) approach has since been applied in multiple cities globally, which has demonstrated its efficacy in understanding the urban heat island (UHI) effect through observations and transferring those results across multiple cities. However as with global scale temperature anomalies, the UHI can be viewed as symptomatic of the underlying processes rather than purely as a response i.e. while we now are capable of observing enhanced air temperatures around cities, addressing the issue requires a deeper understanding of the processes that give rise to this phenomenon, particularly if solutions are to be transferred into urban planning practices and environmental policies. To that end, urban climate models are an invaluable tool for examining urban processes in more detail. However, their application in urban areas (particularly for planning problems) remains ad hoc and unsystematic. In fact, many cities in the economically developing world lack even basic data describing (i) the underlying city, its sealed surface extent, vegetation, building materials and so forth and/or (ii) knowledge of the overlying atmosphere in and around the city, required to apply such models. In this collection of papers, a formal modelling and evaluation approach is proposed, elaborated on and applied which utilises the LCZ system. While LCZs were designed strictly for observations of the air temperature at 2m, due to its generality and resulting uptake within the urban climate community, it is argued to be an effective approach for modelling, particularly in data poor settings. The LCZ approach is linked with the Surface Urban Energy and Water Balance Scheme (SUEWS) model, a mid-complex urban energy and water balance model. Hence, the approach is referred to as the LCZ-SUEWS approach. The application of the approach primarily focuses on Dublin city (Ireland). This was done as the city houses three (2 ongoing and 1 retired) eddy-covariance flux towers used to evaluate the approach, however the results are intended to be transferrable to other domains. Three primary conclusions can be drawn from this body of work. Firstly, the LCZ-SUEWS approach performs equally well in data poor, data rich settings, meaning the approach can be applied anywhere to provide an initial…

Subjects/Keywords: urban climate; model evaluation; application

Record Details Similar Records Cite « Share

❌

APA · Chicago · MLA · Vancouver · CSE | Export to Zotero / EndNote / Reference Manager

APA (6^th Edition):

Alexander, P. J. (2016). Essays on Urban Climate Model Evaluation and Application. (Thesis). RIAN. Retrieved from http://mural.maynoothuniversity.ie/7583/

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Chicago Manual of Style (16^th Edition):

Alexander, Paul John. “Essays on Urban Climate Model Evaluation and Application.” 2016. Thesis, RIAN. Accessed January 18, 2021. http://mural.maynoothuniversity.ie/7583/.

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

MLA Handbook (7^th Edition):

Alexander, Paul John. “Essays on Urban Climate Model Evaluation and Application.” 2016. Web. 18 Jan 2021.

Vancouver:

Alexander PJ. Essays on Urban Climate Model Evaluation and Application. [Internet] [Thesis]. RIAN; 2016. [cited 2021 Jan 18]. Available from: http://mural.maynoothuniversity.ie/7583/.

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Council of Science Editors:

Alexander PJ. Essays on Urban Climate Model Evaluation and Application. [Thesis]. RIAN; 2016. Available from: http://mural.maynoothuniversity.ie/7583/

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

University of Southern California

11. Dickson, James Langley. GIS-based quantitative integration of global climate model simulations and geodatabases of gullies on Mars etd-DicksonJam-2668_Page_01.

Degree: MS, Geographic Information Science and Technology, 2014, University of Southern California

URL: http://digitallibrary.usc.edu/cdm/compoundobject/collection/p15799coll3/id/437731/rec/3055

► Global climate models (GCMs) allow planetary scientists to test physical explanations for the formation and modification of climate‐related features on planetary bodies. This method of… (more)

▼ Global climate models (GCMs) allow planetary scientists to test physical explanations for the formation and modification of climate‐related features on planetary bodies. This method of analysis depends upon two data sources: the GCM itself and a catalog of features under investigation. Integrating these two inputs provides a novel approach for testing climate‐related hypotheses for the formation of geological features of interest. An integration pipeline has been developed and a proof‐of‐concept application is tested on martian gullies, small erosional channels that may provide evidence for the recent flow of liquid water on the surface of Mars. ❧ The end‐to‐end GCM/data integration approach includes three primary components: (1) generation of a geodatabase with coded domains of all imaged gullies in the southern hemisphere of Mars from Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) Context Camera (CTX) images, (2) incorporation into a Geographic Information System (GIS) framework of three GCM simulations that quantitatively predict surface conditions over one martian year under three different starting scenarios thought to have occurred in Mars’ recent geologic history, and (3) the integration of the geodatabase and GCM simulations to create dynamic visualizations of surface conditions over time and quantitative extraction of temperature/pressure values at gully sites to test whether or not liquid water could exist at these locations. ❧ The newly developed approach in this study demonstrates that the formation of gullies by liquid water is unlikely under present atmospheric conditions at most locations, but is predicted to have been achievable under more favorable orbital scenarios thought to have occurred in the recent geologic history of Mars. If these associations are valid, this increases the potential of primitive biology having existed in the recent history of Mars. More broadly, this technique represents a potentially valuable tool within a GIS framework for increasing confidence in data/model comparisons at global, hemispheric and regional scales. Advisors/Committee Members: Paganelli, Flora (Committee Chair), Ruddell, Darren M. (Committee Member), Hastings, Jordan T. (Committee Member).

Subjects/Keywords: Mars; global climate model; climate; GIS; climate change; planetary science; hydrology

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APA · Chicago · MLA · Vancouver · CSE | Export to Zotero / EndNote / Reference Manager

APA (6^th Edition):

Dickson, J. L. (2014). GIS-based quantitative integration of global climate model simulations and geodatabases of gullies on Mars etd-DicksonJam-2668_Page_01. (Masters Thesis). University of Southern California. Retrieved from http://digitallibrary.usc.edu/cdm/compoundobject/collection/p15799coll3/id/437731/rec/3055

Chicago Manual of Style (16^th Edition):

Dickson, James Langley. “GIS-based quantitative integration of global climate model simulations and geodatabases of gullies on Mars etd-DicksonJam-2668_Page_01.” 2014. Masters Thesis, University of Southern California. Accessed January 18, 2021. http://digitallibrary.usc.edu/cdm/compoundobject/collection/p15799coll3/id/437731/rec/3055.

MLA Handbook (7^th Edition):

Dickson, James Langley. “GIS-based quantitative integration of global climate model simulations and geodatabases of gullies on Mars etd-DicksonJam-2668_Page_01.” 2014. Web. 18 Jan 2021.

Vancouver:

Dickson JL. GIS-based quantitative integration of global climate model simulations and geodatabases of gullies on Mars etd-DicksonJam-2668_Page_01. [Internet] [Masters thesis]. University of Southern California; 2014. [cited 2021 Jan 18]. Available from: http://digitallibrary.usc.edu/cdm/compoundobject/collection/p15799coll3/id/437731/rec/3055.

Council of Science Editors:

Dickson JL. GIS-based quantitative integration of global climate model simulations and geodatabases of gullies on Mars etd-DicksonJam-2668_Page_01. [Masters Thesis]. University of Southern California; 2014. Available from: http://digitallibrary.usc.edu/cdm/compoundobject/collection/p15799coll3/id/437731/rec/3055

University of Utah

12. Smith, Kimberly L. Assessing the ability of coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (cmip5) models to capture connections between great basin precipitation and pacific ocean modes of variability and applying the assessment into the future.

Degree: MS, Atmospheric Sciences, 2015, University of Utah

URL: http://content.lib.utah.edu/cdm/singleitem/collection/etd3/id/3757/rec/302

► Precipitation over the Wasatch Mountain Range of northern Utah, part of the Great Basin (GB) in the western United States, provides water for millions of… (more)

▼ Precipitation over the Wasatch Mountain Range of northern Utah, part of the Great Basin (GB) in the western United States, provides water for millions of people living along the Wasatch Front. Western US precipitation is known to be influenced by the El-Nin ̃o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) as well as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in the North Pacific. Historical connectivity between GB precipitation and Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on interannual to multidecadal time scales is evaluated for 20 models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). While the majority of the models had realistic ENSO and PDO spatial patterns in the SSTs, the simulated influence of these two modes on GB precipitation tended to be too strong for ENSO and too weak for PDO. Few models captured the connectivity at a quasi-decadal period influenced by the transition phase of the Pacific quasi-decadal oscillation (QDO; a recently identified climate mode that regulates GB precipitation). Some of the discrepancies appear to stem from models not capturing the observed tendency for the PDO to modulate the sign of the ENSO-GB precipitation teleconnection. Of all of the models, CCSM4 most consistently captured observed connections between Pacific SST variability and GB precipitation on all time scales, suggesting that in future applications, its output represents a higher confidence for the future climate of this region. The utility of the assessment is illustrated by a brief statistical analysis of future western US precipitation under a high emissions scenario. Using the results from the assessment, the application portion of the study analyzes future precipitation data under a high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5) to determine what the future could potentially look like over the western US. The models are ranked based on their performance in capturing the connections between GB precipitation and Pacific Ocean modes of variability. The ranking then deter- mines which model would be appropriate to be applied to a stochastic framework and dynamical downscaling analyses. The results from the assessment were used to force a nonstationary, daily stochastic weather generator and produce precipitation occurrence output for a valley site and a mountain site located within the GB. With some considerations, the stochastic weather generator provides long-term data for any time period that statistically matches the input data.

Subjects/Keywords: Climate; Global climate model; Great Basin; Hydrology; Model evaluation; Precipitation

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APA · Chicago · MLA · Vancouver · CSE | Export to Zotero / EndNote / Reference Manager

APA (6^th Edition):

Smith, K. L. (2015). Assessing the ability of coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (cmip5) models to capture connections between great basin precipitation and pacific ocean modes of variability and applying the assessment into the future. (Masters Thesis). University of Utah. Retrieved from http://content.lib.utah.edu/cdm/singleitem/collection/etd3/id/3757/rec/302

Chicago Manual of Style (16^th Edition):

Smith, Kimberly L. “Assessing the ability of coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (cmip5) models to capture connections between great basin precipitation and pacific ocean modes of variability and applying the assessment into the future.” 2015. Masters Thesis, University of Utah. Accessed January 18, 2021. http://content.lib.utah.edu/cdm/singleitem/collection/etd3/id/3757/rec/302.

MLA Handbook (7^th Edition):

Smith, Kimberly L. “Assessing the ability of coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (cmip5) models to capture connections between great basin precipitation and pacific ocean modes of variability and applying the assessment into the future.” 2015. Web. 18 Jan 2021.

Vancouver:

Smith KL. Assessing the ability of coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (cmip5) models to capture connections between great basin precipitation and pacific ocean modes of variability and applying the assessment into the future. [Internet] [Masters thesis]. University of Utah; 2015. [cited 2021 Jan 18]. Available from: http://content.lib.utah.edu/cdm/singleitem/collection/etd3/id/3757/rec/302.

Council of Science Editors:

Smith KL. Assessing the ability of coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (cmip5) models to capture connections between great basin precipitation and pacific ocean modes of variability and applying the assessment into the future. [Masters Thesis]. University of Utah; 2015. Available from: http://content.lib.utah.edu/cdm/singleitem/collection/etd3/id/3757/rec/302

University of Georgia

13. Bao, Yawen. The impact of climate change on soybean production in the southeastern USA and potential adaptation strategies.

Degree: 2014, University of Georgia

URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10724/26564

► Several studies have addressed the potential impact of climate change on soybean production in the southeastern USA by coupling crop models and climate models. However,… (more)

Subjects/Keywords: Soybean; Climate Change; General Circulation Model; Regional Climate Model; CSM-CROPGRO-Soybean Model; DSSAT

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APA · Chicago · MLA · Vancouver · CSE | Export to Zotero / EndNote / Reference Manager

APA (6^th Edition):

Bao, Y. (2014). The impact of climate change on soybean production in the southeastern USA and potential adaptation strategies. (Thesis). University of Georgia. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/10724/26564

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Chicago Manual of Style (16^th Edition):

Bao, Yawen. “The impact of climate change on soybean production in the southeastern USA and potential adaptation strategies.” 2014. Thesis, University of Georgia. Accessed January 18, 2021. http://hdl.handle.net/10724/26564.

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

MLA Handbook (7^th Edition):

Bao, Yawen. “The impact of climate change on soybean production in the southeastern USA and potential adaptation strategies.” 2014. Web. 18 Jan 2021.

Vancouver:

Bao Y. The impact of climate change on soybean production in the southeastern USA and potential adaptation strategies. [Internet] [Thesis]. University of Georgia; 2014. [cited 2021 Jan 18]. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/10724/26564.

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Council of Science Editors:

Bao Y. The impact of climate change on soybean production in the southeastern USA and potential adaptation strategies. [Thesis]. University of Georgia; 2014. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/10724/26564

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Penn State University

14. Libardoni, Alex Gordon. Improving Constraints on Climate System Properties with Additional Data and New Methods.

Degree: 2017, Penn State University

URL: https://submit-etda.libraries.psu.edu/catalog/12580agl127

► Future climate change depends on properties of the climate system and the external forcing factors that drive the global energy budget. Among those properties are… (more)

Subjects/Keywords: Climate sensitivity; Ocean diffusivity; Aerosol forcing; Transient climate response; Climate models; Climate change; Internal climate variability; Climate model evaluation; Climate model calibration; Uncertainty quantification; Radial basis functions; Climate sensitivity; Ocean diffusivity; Aerosol forcing; Transient climate response; Climate models; Climate change; Internal climate variability; Climate model evaluation; Climate model calibration; Uncertainty quantification; Radial basis functions

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APA · Chicago · MLA · Vancouver · CSE | Export to Zotero / EndNote / Reference Manager

APA (6^th Edition):

Libardoni, A. G. (2017). Improving Constraints on Climate System Properties with Additional Data and New Methods. (Thesis). Penn State University. Retrieved from https://submit-etda.libraries.psu.edu/catalog/12580agl127

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Chicago Manual of Style (16^th Edition):

Libardoni, Alex Gordon. “Improving Constraints on Climate System Properties with Additional Data and New Methods.” 2017. Thesis, Penn State University. Accessed January 18, 2021. https://submit-etda.libraries.psu.edu/catalog/12580agl127.

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

MLA Handbook (7^th Edition):

Libardoni, Alex Gordon. “Improving Constraints on Climate System Properties with Additional Data and New Methods.” 2017. Web. 18 Jan 2021.

Vancouver:

Libardoni AG. Improving Constraints on Climate System Properties with Additional Data and New Methods. [Internet] [Thesis]. Penn State University; 2017. [cited 2021 Jan 18]. Available from: https://submit-etda.libraries.psu.edu/catalog/12580agl127.

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Council of Science Editors:

Libardoni AG. Improving Constraints on Climate System Properties with Additional Data and New Methods. [Thesis]. Penn State University; 2017. Available from: https://submit-etda.libraries.psu.edu/catalog/12580agl127

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

UCLA

15. Langenbrunner, Baird. Quantifying uncertainty in precipitation climatology, twenty-first century change, and teleconnections in global climate models.

Degree: Atmospheric & Oceanic Sciences, 2015, UCLA

URL: http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/3f9708hq

► The ability of global climate models (GCMs) to simulate climatological precipitation and other features of the hydrological cycle accurately is acceptable by some metrics, especially… (more)

▼ The ability of global climate models (GCMs) to simulate climatological precipitation and other features of the hydrological cycle accurately is acceptable by some metrics, especially at large scales. Regionally, however, there can be substantial discrepancy in a multi-model ensemble, both in the annual or seasonal historical precipitation climatology as well as in end-of-century changes. Characterizing this intermodel spread and identifying leading uncertainty patterns and underlying physical pathways is important in constraining climatological biases and projections of future change. This dissertation looks at three aspects of precipitation uncertainty in ensembles.First, El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections are analyzed in an atmosphere-only ensemble to gauge the ability of atmospheric components of GCMs to reproduce ENSO precipitation teleconnections. This serves as a test for how well models simulate the atmospheric response to sea surface temperature forcing in the immediate ENSO vicinity, as well as how accurately they reproduce the large-scale tropical-to-midlatitude dynamics leading to teleconnected precipitation. While individual models have difficulty in simulating the exact spatial pattern of teleconnections, they demonstrate skill in regional amplitude measures and sign agreement of the precipitation teleconnections at the grid point level, which lends value to the use of such measures in global warming projections.Next, objective spatial analysis techniques are applied to a fully-coupled GCM ensemble in order to visualize patterns of uncertainty in end-of-century precipitation changes and in the historical climatology. Global patterns are considered first, with the tropics exerting a clear dominance in intermodel spread, mainly within zones of deep convection or along convective margins. Regional domains are considered second, with a focus on the wintertime midlatitude Pacific storm track. A key region of end-of-century precipitation change uncertainty is identified at the terminus of the storm track, and large-scale circulation processes related to model differences in upper-level jet increases are found to play a role. These results help pinpoint a source of intermodel spread in projected precipitation changes along the North American west coast, especially for the Southern California region.Last, an existing perturbed physics ensemble is examined in order to understand the parameter sensitivity of climatological precipitation and other fields. This ensemble consists of integrations in which four parameters in the deep convection scheme were systematically varied. Models of parameter dependence are constructed for precipitation, and this process – termed metamodeling – is a computationally cheap alternative to brute-force sampling of parameter space in the GCM. A quadratic metamodel performs generally well but fails to capture sensitive regions of high nonlinearity for certain parameter ranges. A second metamodel is constructed by combining an approach from the engineering…

Subjects/Keywords: Atmospheric sciences; Climate change; Climate change; CMIP5; Global climate models; Hydrological cycle; Model uncertainty; Precipitation

Record Details Similar Records Cite « Share

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APA · Chicago · MLA · Vancouver · CSE | Export to Zotero / EndNote / Reference Manager

APA (6^th Edition):

Langenbrunner, B. (2015). Quantifying uncertainty in precipitation climatology, twenty-first century change, and teleconnections in global climate models. (Thesis). UCLA. Retrieved from http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/3f9708hq

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Chicago Manual of Style (16^th Edition):

Langenbrunner, Baird. “Quantifying uncertainty in precipitation climatology, twenty-first century change, and teleconnections in global climate models.” 2015. Thesis, UCLA. Accessed January 18, 2021. http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/3f9708hq.

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

MLA Handbook (7^th Edition):

Langenbrunner, Baird. “Quantifying uncertainty in precipitation climatology, twenty-first century change, and teleconnections in global climate models.” 2015. Web. 18 Jan 2021.

Vancouver:

Langenbrunner B. Quantifying uncertainty in precipitation climatology, twenty-first century change, and teleconnections in global climate models. [Internet] [Thesis]. UCLA; 2015. [cited 2021 Jan 18]. Available from: http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/3f9708hq.

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Council of Science Editors:

Langenbrunner B. Quantifying uncertainty in precipitation climatology, twenty-first century change, and teleconnections in global climate models. [Thesis]. UCLA; 2015. Available from: http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/3f9708hq

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Penn State University

16. Olson, Roman. How Well Can Historical Temperature Observations Constrain Climate Sensitivity.

Degree: 2013, Penn State University

URL: https://submit-etda.libraries.psu.edu/catalog/19298

► Future climate projections are strongly influenced by climate sensitivity (CS). Many recent studies estimated CS by combining runs of Earth Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs)… (more)

▼ Future climate projections are strongly influenced by climate sensitivity (CS). Many recent studies estimated CS by combining runs of Earth Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs) with global mean instrumental observations. Yet, CS estimates remain consistently uncertain. This dissertation addresses four questions: (1) What is the probability distribution function (pdf) of CS implied by global mean surface temperatures and upper ocean warming when a model with full three-dimensional ocean dynamics is used? (2) How sensitive is this pdf to priors? (3) How does the CS estimation uncertainty depend on the true CS of the climate system? and (4) How strongly is the CS uncertainty affected by internal climate variability that is not resolved by the model? These questions are addressed with a 250-member ensemble of UVic ESCM climate model runs varying CS, background vertical mixing in the ocean, and anthropogenic sulfate cooling effects. A Gaussian Process emulator is developed to interpolate UVic ESCM output between the ensemble parameter settings. The emulator is constrained with historical observations of temperature and upper ocean warming using a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo method. The results are combined with prior independent evidence. The method results in the 95% posterior credible interval for CS from 1.8°C to 4.9°C, with the mode of 2.8°C. The CS pdf depends strongly on the CS prior. When the prior evidence is discarded, the 95% interval upper bound increases to 10.2°C. In addition, multiple observation system simulation experiments are performed. First, pseudo-observations of temperature and upper ocean warming are simulated from the emulator at a specified “true” CS. Then, CS is re-estimated using the pseudo-observations and the emulator, and compared to the “true” value. It is found that CS is more difficult to estimate when it is high. This suggests that a high CS might get undetected when relying on the recent instrumental record alone. Unresolved internal climate variability represents a key uncertainty in CS estimates from global observations and EMICs. Using a single observational record, contaminated by internal variability, can result in a sizeable discrepancy (up to several °C) between a CS estimate and the “true” value. Advisors/Committee Members: Klaus Keller, Dissertation Advisor/Co-Advisor, Klaus Keller, Committee Chair/Co-Chair, Chris Eliot Forest, Committee Member, James Kasting, Committee Member, Murali Haran, Committee Member.

Subjects/Keywords: Climate sensitivity; internal climate variability; Gaussian Process; climate model; Markov chain Monte Carlo

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APA · Chicago · MLA · Vancouver · CSE | Export to Zotero / EndNote / Reference Manager

APA (6^th Edition):

Olson, R. (2013). How Well Can Historical Temperature Observations Constrain Climate Sensitivity. (Thesis). Penn State University. Retrieved from https://submit-etda.libraries.psu.edu/catalog/19298

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Chicago Manual of Style (16^th Edition):

Olson, Roman. “How Well Can Historical Temperature Observations Constrain Climate Sensitivity.” 2013. Thesis, Penn State University. Accessed January 18, 2021. https://submit-etda.libraries.psu.edu/catalog/19298.

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

MLA Handbook (7^th Edition):

Olson, Roman. “How Well Can Historical Temperature Observations Constrain Climate Sensitivity.” 2013. Web. 18 Jan 2021.

Vancouver:

Olson R. How Well Can Historical Temperature Observations Constrain Climate Sensitivity. [Internet] [Thesis]. Penn State University; 2013. [cited 2021 Jan 18]. Available from: https://submit-etda.libraries.psu.edu/catalog/19298.

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Council of Science Editors:

Olson R. How Well Can Historical Temperature Observations Constrain Climate Sensitivity. [Thesis]. Penn State University; 2013. Available from: https://submit-etda.libraries.psu.edu/catalog/19298

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

University of Colorado

17. Stevenson, Samantha. The Past, Present and Future of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation.

Degree: PhD, Atmospheric & Oceanic Sciences, 2011, University of Colorado

URL: https://scholar.colorado.edu/atoc_gradetds/13

► Predicting how the strength and character of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) will change as the climate warms is crucial for a number of… (more)

▼ Predicting how the strength and character of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) will change as the climate warms is crucial for a number of societal impacts, yet there are fundamental limitations to our understanding of ENSO dynamics. The major obstacles are related to sampling length, physical adjustments to climate changes, errors in model physics and uncertainties in forcing projections. This dissertation uses these issues to assess what we currently can and cannot say about future ENSO variability. The temporal extent of modern observations is too short to properly measure natural ENSO variations: averaging together at least 200 years is required to obtain robust ENSO statistics in a stable climate. Using paleoclimate ‘proxies’ to extend the observational record is another option, but is complicated by the uncertainties involved in translating between model and proxy signals. Coral oxygen isotopes, the most commonly used ENSO proxy, are shown to be governed by nonlinear dynamics: a more accurate ‘forward model’ for coral δ¹⁸O is needed. Even using such a model, at least 4-5 contemporaneous records will be required for accurate ENSO amplitude estimation. Simulations using several IPCC-class general circulation models (GCMs) are used to demonstrate that the adjustment to climate change itself takes place over decadal timescales, meaning that ENSO response is not statistically significant during the 21st century. This implies that current model intercomparison experiments are insufficient to measure the true range of ENSO climate sensitivity. However, significant changes to atmospheric teleconnections may take place within the 21st century: the NCAR Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4), for example, predicts harsher winters in the Southwestern US during La Niña and weaker Australian teleconnections during both El Niño and La Niña. Stabilized CCSM3.5 simulations are then performed, which show that once the climate has equilibrated, the ENSO response to a CO₂ increase eventually does become significant. However, the details of that response are sensitive to small changes in model physics: the ENSO climate sensitivity in the CCSM3.5 and CCSM4 oppose one another, and the mechanisms for the difference are as yet unclear. Seasonal forcing, high-frequency wind stress variability, or other processes may be responsible, but a complete diagnosis requires longer CCSM4 simulations than are currently available. Finally, an additional complication is discussed: future ENSO projections all rely on the standardized emissions scenarios from the IPCC. Projections of future emissions reductions may be overly optimistic, perhaps requiring attention to a wider range of CO₂ changes for accurate ENSO impacts studies. Advisors/Committee Members: Baylor Fox-Kemper, Antonietta Capotondi, Balaji Rajagopalan.

Subjects/Keywords: climate change; climate variability; El Nino; ENSO; model validation; tropical oceanography; Atmospheric Sciences; Climate; Oceanography

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APA (6^th Edition):

Stevenson, S. (2011). The Past, Present and Future of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. (Doctoral Dissertation). University of Colorado. Retrieved from https://scholar.colorado.edu/atoc_gradetds/13

Chicago Manual of Style (16^th Edition):

Stevenson, Samantha. “The Past, Present and Future of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation.” 2011. Doctoral Dissertation, University of Colorado. Accessed January 18, 2021. https://scholar.colorado.edu/atoc_gradetds/13.

MLA Handbook (7^th Edition):

Stevenson, Samantha. “The Past, Present and Future of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation.” 2011. Web. 18 Jan 2021.

Vancouver:

Stevenson S. The Past, Present and Future of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. [Internet] [Doctoral dissertation]. University of Colorado; 2011. [cited 2021 Jan 18]. Available from: https://scholar.colorado.edu/atoc_gradetds/13.

Council of Science Editors:

Stevenson S. The Past, Present and Future of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. [Doctoral Dissertation]. University of Colorado; 2011. Available from: https://scholar.colorado.edu/atoc_gradetds/13

University of Colorado

18. Blazey, Benjamin Andrew. Snow Cover on the Arctic Sea Ice: Model Validation, Sensitivity, and 21st Century Projections.

Degree: PhD, Atmospheric & Oceanic Sciences, 2012, University of Colorado

URL: https://scholar.colorado.edu/atoc_gradetds/20

► The role of snow cover in controlling Arctic Ocean sea ice thickness and extent is assessed with a series of models. Investigations with the… (more)

▼ The role of snow cover in controlling Arctic Ocean sea ice thickness and extent is assessed with a series of models. Investigations with the stand alone Community Ice CodE (CICE) show, first, a reduction in snow depth triggers a decrease in ice volume and area, and, second, that the impact of increased snow is heavily dependent on ice and atmospheric conditions. Hindcast snow depths on the Arctic ice, simulated by the fully coupled Community Climate System Model (CCSM) are validated with 20th century in situ snow depth measurements. The snow depths in CCSM are found to be deeper than observed, likely due to excessive precipitation produced by the component atmosphere model. The sensitivity of the ice to the thermal barrier imposed by the biased snow depth is assessed. The removal of the thermodynamic impact of the exaggerated snow depth increases ice area and volume. The initial increases in ice due to enhanced conductive flux triggers feedback mechanisms with the atmosphere and ocean, reinforcing the increase in ice. Finally, the 21st century projections of decreased Arctic Ocean snow depth in CCSM are reported and diagnosed. The changes in snow are dominated by reduced accumulation due to the lack of autumn ice cover. Without this platform, much of the early snowfall is lost directly to the ocean. While this decrease in snow results in enhanced conductive flux through the ice as in the validation sensitivity experiment, the decreased summer albedo is found to dominate, as in the CICE stand alone sensitivity experiment. As such, the decrease in snow projected by CCSM in the 21st century presents a mechanism to continued ice loss. These negative (ice growth due decreased insulation) and positive (ice melt due to decreased albedo) feedback mechanisms highlight the need for an accurate representation snow cover on the ice in order to accurately simulate the evolution of Arctic Ocean sea ice. Advisors/Committee Members: James A. Maslanik, Baylor Fox-Kemper, John J. Cassano.

Subjects/Keywords: Arctic; Climate Change; Climate Model; Cryosphere; Sea Ice; Snow; Atmospheric Sciences; Climate; Oceanography

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APA (6^th Edition):

Blazey, B. A. (2012). Snow Cover on the Arctic Sea Ice: Model Validation, Sensitivity, and 21st Century Projections. (Doctoral Dissertation). University of Colorado. Retrieved from https://scholar.colorado.edu/atoc_gradetds/20

Chicago Manual of Style (16^th Edition):

Blazey, Benjamin Andrew. “Snow Cover on the Arctic Sea Ice: Model Validation, Sensitivity, and 21st Century Projections.” 2012. Doctoral Dissertation, University of Colorado. Accessed January 18, 2021. https://scholar.colorado.edu/atoc_gradetds/20.

MLA Handbook (7^th Edition):

Blazey, Benjamin Andrew. “Snow Cover on the Arctic Sea Ice: Model Validation, Sensitivity, and 21st Century Projections.” 2012. Web. 18 Jan 2021.

Vancouver:

Blazey BA. Snow Cover on the Arctic Sea Ice: Model Validation, Sensitivity, and 21st Century Projections. [Internet] [Doctoral dissertation]. University of Colorado; 2012. [cited 2021 Jan 18]. Available from: https://scholar.colorado.edu/atoc_gradetds/20.

Council of Science Editors:

Blazey BA. Snow Cover on the Arctic Sea Ice: Model Validation, Sensitivity, and 21st Century Projections. [Doctoral Dissertation]. University of Colorado; 2012. Available from: https://scholar.colorado.edu/atoc_gradetds/20

19. Meyer, Jonathan D.D. Modeling and Projection of the North American Monsoon Using a High-Resolution Regional Climate Model.

Degree: PhD, Plants, Soils, and Climate, 2017, Utah State University

URL: https://digitalcommons.usu.edu/etd/5802

► This dissertation aims to better understand how various climate modeling approaches affect the fidelity of the North American Monsoon (NAM), as well as the… (more)

▼ This dissertation aims to better understand how various climate modeling approaches affect the fidelity of the North American Monsoon (NAM), as well as the sensitivity of the future state of the NAM under a global warming scenario. Here, we improved over current fully-coupled general circulation models (GCM), which struggle to fully resolve the controlling dynamics responsible for the development and maintenance of the NAM. To accomplish this, we dynamically downscaled a GCM with a regional climate model (RCM). The advantage here being a higher model resolution that improves the representation of processes on scales beyond that which GCMs can resolve. However, as all RCM applications are subject to the transference of biases inherent to the parent GCM, this study developed and evaluated a process to reduce these biases. Pertaining to both precipitation and the various controlling dynamics of the NAM, we found simulations driven by these bias-corrected forcing conditions performed moderately better across a 32-year historical climatology than simulations driven by the original GCM data. Current GCM consensus suggests future tropospheric warming associated with increased radiative forcing as greenhouse gas concentrations increase will suppress the NAM convective environment through greater atmospheric stability. This mechanism yields later onset dates and a generally drier season, but a slight increase to the intensity during July-August. After comparing downscaled simulations forced with original and corrected forcing conditions, we argue that the role of unresolved GCM surface features such as changes to the Gulf of California evaporation lead to a more convective environment. Even when downscaling the original GCM data with known biases, the inclusion of these surface features altered and in some cases reversed GCM trends throughout the southwest United States. This reversal towards a wetter NAM is further magnified in future bias-corrected simulations, which suggest (1) fewer average number of dry days by the end of the 21st century (2) onset occurring up to two to three weeks earlier than the historical average, and (3) more extreme daily precipitation values. However, consistent across each GCM and RCM model is the increase in inter-annual variability, suggesting greater susceptibility to drought conditions in the future. Advisors/Committee Members: Jiming Jin, ;.

Subjects/Keywords: regional climate modeling; north american monsoon; bias correction; community climate system model; Climate

11 more images…

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APA (6^th Edition):

Meyer, J. D. D. (2017). Modeling and Projection of the North American Monsoon Using a High-Resolution Regional Climate Model. (Doctoral Dissertation). Utah State University. Retrieved from https://digitalcommons.usu.edu/etd/5802

Chicago Manual of Style (16^th Edition):

Meyer, Jonathan D D. “Modeling and Projection of the North American Monsoon Using a High-Resolution Regional Climate Model.” 2017. Doctoral Dissertation, Utah State University. Accessed January 18, 2021. https://digitalcommons.usu.edu/etd/5802.

MLA Handbook (7^th Edition):

Meyer, Jonathan D D. “Modeling and Projection of the North American Monsoon Using a High-Resolution Regional Climate Model.” 2017. Web. 18 Jan 2021.

Vancouver:

Meyer JDD. Modeling and Projection of the North American Monsoon Using a High-Resolution Regional Climate Model. [Internet] [Doctoral dissertation]. Utah State University; 2017. [cited 2021 Jan 18]. Available from: https://digitalcommons.usu.edu/etd/5802.

Council of Science Editors:

Meyer JDD. Modeling and Projection of the North American Monsoon Using a High-Resolution Regional Climate Model. [Doctoral Dissertation]. Utah State University; 2017. Available from: https://digitalcommons.usu.edu/etd/5802

Penn State University

20. Niu, Miaomiao. Developing a Process to Measure Safety Climate under the Construction Working Environment.

Degree: 2017, Penn State University

URL: https://submit-etda.libraries.psu.edu/catalog/14429mxn228

► Safety climate has been widely used as a leading indicator to predict safety performance across multiple industries. Although extensive studies have focused on safety climate… (more)

▼ Safety climate has been widely used as a leading indicator to predict safety performance across multiple industries. Although extensive studies have focused on safety climate measurement in construction, the interpretations of the results are confusing to project management. There is a lack of theoretical development of safety climate indicators in the dynamic context of the construction industry. This research is aimed at developing a process to measure safety climate under the construction working environment. Four stages are designed to accomplish this research goal, including 1) Problem identification; 2) development of safety climate contextual indicators, where systematic review and focus group discussions were applied to identify the contextual indicators related to safety climate; 3) development of the safety climate measurement process model, where a case study was conducted to implement the process of safety climate measurement in the construction context; 4) process model validation, where the process model was validated by focus group discussion and expert interviews. The results of this research include a framework of contextual indicators of safety climate, as well as a process model of safety climate measurement under the dynamic construction working environment. By implementing the process model through the case study, the relationship between site dynamics and perceived safety was explored. The research contributes to industry applications of using safety climate as a leading indicator to proactively manage site safety under the dynamic working environment. The findings also contribute to a more holistic understanding of the safety climate concept, and serves as a foundation to explain the mechanisms of the industry context influencing safety climate. Advisors/Committee Members: Robert Michael Leicht, Dissertation Advisor/Co-Advisor, Robert Michael Leicht, Committee Chair/Co-Chair, John Isaac Messner, Committee Member, Somayeh Asadi, Committee Member, Susan Mohammed, Outside Member.

Subjects/Keywords: Safety Climate; Construction Safety; Process Model

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APA (6^th Edition):

Niu, M. (2017). Developing a Process to Measure Safety Climate under the Construction Working Environment. (Thesis). Penn State University. Retrieved from https://submit-etda.libraries.psu.edu/catalog/14429mxn228

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Chicago Manual of Style (16^th Edition):

Niu, Miaomiao. “Developing a Process to Measure Safety Climate under the Construction Working Environment.” 2017. Thesis, Penn State University. Accessed January 18, 2021. https://submit-etda.libraries.psu.edu/catalog/14429mxn228.

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

MLA Handbook (7^th Edition):

Niu, Miaomiao. “Developing a Process to Measure Safety Climate under the Construction Working Environment.” 2017. Web. 18 Jan 2021.

Vancouver:

Niu M. Developing a Process to Measure Safety Climate under the Construction Working Environment. [Internet] [Thesis]. Penn State University; 2017. [cited 2021 Jan 18]. Available from: https://submit-etda.libraries.psu.edu/catalog/14429mxn228.

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Council of Science Editors:

Niu M. Developing a Process to Measure Safety Climate under the Construction Working Environment. [Thesis]. Penn State University; 2017. Available from: https://submit-etda.libraries.psu.edu/catalog/14429mxn228

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Addis Ababa University

21. Jemal, Seid. SIMULATION OF CROP YIELDS IN THE AMHARA REGION USING A LARGE AREA CROP MODEL AS DRIVEN BY OUTPUT FROM REGCM-4 .

Degree: 2013, Addis Ababa University

URL: http://etd.aau.edu.et/dspace/handle/123456789/1328

► The livelihood of people in many regions of Ethiopia depends on rainfed agriculture. Accurate prediction of crop yield could greatly improve potential famine and allow… (more)

▼ The livelihood of people in many regions of Ethiopia depends on rainfed agriculture. Accurate prediction of crop yield could greatly improve potential famine and allow advanced planning of intervention operations. This thesis explores the feasibility of a combined Regional Climate Model (RegCM) and crop model for crop yield forecasting in Ethiopia, using wheat yield for the Amhara region as a case study. An important focus in the investigation is to validate and asses the ability of RegCM-4 regional climate model to represent the Ethiopian summer rainfall. The ability of the RegCM-4 model in capturing temporal and spatial variability of precipitation over the region of interest is evaluated using metrics spanning a wide range of temporal and spatial (Ethiopian domain average to local) scales against Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) observational datasets. The simulated period is 1995-2008. RegCM-4 shows a general overestimation of precipitation except the highlands part of the country. The precipitation bias over the Ethiopian highland, our main area of interest, is mostly less than 20%. The model captures well the observed interannual and inter-seasonal variability. On short time scales, simulated daily temperature and precipitation show a high correlation with observations, with a correlation coefficient of 0.79 for kiremit season. It is therefore that RegCM-4 has sufficiently good quality to perform climate change experiments over Ethiopia, for application to impact and adaptation studies. RegCM-4 outputs are used to drive a process-based crop model, General Large Area Model for Annaula Crop (GLAM) for hindcasting zonal wheat yields in the Amhara region. Simulated crop Radiation Use Efficiency (RUE) has been founded to be 1.81 which is expected for C3 crops. The yield in these simulations showed a negative bias (159-200kg/ha) with observed yield over Souther(North Shew Zone) and South Western(Awi Zone) of Amhara regional state. This is probably because at the field level the yield variability was mainly affected by field managements and diseases, pests and so on. GLAM does not predict the effect of the detailed field management, diseases and pests on yield variability; and also in this region there is overestimation of RegCM-4 precipitation, which might have lead to water stress in GLAM model. At regional level(for all grid cells), there were higher correlations (0.74) between observed and simulated yield. We therefore conclude that the GLAM model is suitable to simulate crop yield at regional scale (approximately 50 km) using RegCM-4 outputs. Advisors/Committee Members: Dr. Gizaw Mengistu (advisor).

Subjects/Keywords: Amhara region; Regional Climate Model (RegCM)

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APA (6^th Edition):

Jemal, S. (2013). SIMULATION OF CROP YIELDS IN THE AMHARA REGION USING A LARGE AREA CROP MODEL AS DRIVEN BY OUTPUT FROM REGCM-4 . (Thesis). Addis Ababa University. Retrieved from http://etd.aau.edu.et/dspace/handle/123456789/1328

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Chicago Manual of Style (16^th Edition):

Jemal, Seid. “SIMULATION OF CROP YIELDS IN THE AMHARA REGION USING A LARGE AREA CROP MODEL AS DRIVEN BY OUTPUT FROM REGCM-4 .” 2013. Thesis, Addis Ababa University. Accessed January 18, 2021. http://etd.aau.edu.et/dspace/handle/123456789/1328.

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

MLA Handbook (7^th Edition):

Jemal, Seid. “SIMULATION OF CROP YIELDS IN THE AMHARA REGION USING A LARGE AREA CROP MODEL AS DRIVEN BY OUTPUT FROM REGCM-4 .” 2013. Web. 18 Jan 2021.

Vancouver:

Jemal S. SIMULATION OF CROP YIELDS IN THE AMHARA REGION USING A LARGE AREA CROP MODEL AS DRIVEN BY OUTPUT FROM REGCM-4 . [Internet] [Thesis]. Addis Ababa University; 2013. [cited 2021 Jan 18]. Available from: http://etd.aau.edu.et/dspace/handle/123456789/1328.

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Council of Science Editors:

Jemal S. SIMULATION OF CROP YIELDS IN THE AMHARA REGION USING A LARGE AREA CROP MODEL AS DRIVEN BY OUTPUT FROM REGCM-4 . [Thesis]. Addis Ababa University; 2013. Available from: http://etd.aau.edu.et/dspace/handle/123456789/1328

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

22. Hochstetler Dillon, Timothy Douglas. A CMIP5 Ensemble Assessment Of Durum Wheat Production & Climate Change In North Dakota, Usa.

Degree: MS, Earth System Science & Policy, 2018, University of North Dakota

URL: https://commons.und.edu/theses/2233

► In the United States (US), North Dakota is the largest producer of Durum Wheat (Triticum durum), hereinafter referred to as Durum. Durum grain has… (more)

Subjects/Keywords: Agriculture; Climate; Durum; Forecast; Model; North Dakota

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APA (6^th Edition):

Hochstetler Dillon, T. D. (2018). A CMIP5 Ensemble Assessment Of Durum Wheat Production & Climate Change In North Dakota, Usa. (Masters Thesis). University of North Dakota. Retrieved from https://commons.und.edu/theses/2233

Chicago Manual of Style (16^th Edition):

Hochstetler Dillon, Timothy Douglas. “A CMIP5 Ensemble Assessment Of Durum Wheat Production & Climate Change In North Dakota, Usa.” 2018. Masters Thesis, University of North Dakota. Accessed January 18, 2021. https://commons.und.edu/theses/2233.

MLA Handbook (7^th Edition):

Hochstetler Dillon, Timothy Douglas. “A CMIP5 Ensemble Assessment Of Durum Wheat Production & Climate Change In North Dakota, Usa.” 2018. Web. 18 Jan 2021.

Vancouver:

Hochstetler Dillon TD. A CMIP5 Ensemble Assessment Of Durum Wheat Production & Climate Change In North Dakota, Usa. [Internet] [Masters thesis]. University of North Dakota; 2018. [cited 2021 Jan 18]. Available from: https://commons.und.edu/theses/2233.

Council of Science Editors:

Hochstetler Dillon TD. A CMIP5 Ensemble Assessment Of Durum Wheat Production & Climate Change In North Dakota, Usa. [Masters Thesis]. University of North Dakota; 2018. Available from: https://commons.und.edu/theses/2233

Colorado State University

23. Thayer-Calder, Katherine. Downdraft impacts on tropical convection.

Degree: PhD, Atmospheric Science, 2013, Colorado State University

URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10217/78871

► Downdrafts are an integral part of the convective cycle, and have been observed and documented for more than a hundred years. But many questions still… (more)

▼ Downdrafts are an integral part of the convective cycle, and have been observed and documented for more than a hundred years. But many questions still surround convective downdrafts and their most difficult to observe properties. These questions have made the parameterization of convective downdrafts in global climate models (GCMs) very difficult. Designers of parameterizations have resorted to a wide range of assumptions and unverified hypotheses in their models of convective downdrafts. In the last ten years, computing resources have advanced to a point where large domain, high resolution cloud resolving models (CRMs) can easily be run for long simulations. This study uses several simulations with 1 km horizontal resolution from the System for Atmospheric Modeling (SAM) v6.8.2 to examine convective downdrafts. We look at Radiative-Convective Equilibrium (RCE), a 21 day case from TOGA-COARE, Weak Temperature Gradient (WTG) simulations with varied shear profiles, and Lagrangian Parcel data to consider many difficult to observe properties of downdrafts. We consider a variety of assumptions and questions that arise in the development of convective parameterizations. Our results show that downdrafts are an important mass flux in all simulations, and that cold pools organize convective systems and enhance updraft Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE). We examine the ability for downdrafts to help couple deep convection to high relative-humidity regions in the tropics, and find that entrainment is likely a more important process in this relationship. We discuss the impact of downdrafts in maintaining boundary layer quasi-equilibrium, and find that, in our simulations, environmental entrainment has a larger impact on low-level most static energy. Finally, we show results from Lagrangian parcel data that illuminate our downdrafts as existing in an unsaturated state, with increasing buoyancy as they descend. We show that many of our downdrafts have positive buoyancy perturbations, suggesting the presence of warm downdrafts and under-shooting bottoms in heavily precipitating tropical systems. Advisors/Committee Members: Randall, David (advisor), Johnson, Richard (committee member), Maloney, Eric (committee member), Strout, Michelle (committee member).

Subjects/Keywords: climate; cloud; convection; downdraft; model; parameterization

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APA (6^th Edition):

Thayer-Calder, K. (2013). Downdraft impacts on tropical convection. (Doctoral Dissertation). Colorado State University. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/10217/78871

Chicago Manual of Style (16^th Edition):

Thayer-Calder, Katherine. “Downdraft impacts on tropical convection.” 2013. Doctoral Dissertation, Colorado State University. Accessed January 18, 2021. http://hdl.handle.net/10217/78871.

MLA Handbook (7^th Edition):

Thayer-Calder, Katherine. “Downdraft impacts on tropical convection.” 2013. Web. 18 Jan 2021.

Vancouver:

Thayer-Calder K. Downdraft impacts on tropical convection. [Internet] [Doctoral dissertation]. Colorado State University; 2013. [cited 2021 Jan 18]. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/10217/78871.

Council of Science Editors:

Thayer-Calder K. Downdraft impacts on tropical convection. [Doctoral Dissertation]. Colorado State University; 2013. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/10217/78871

University of Manchester

24. Braithwaite, Roger James. Geography of Glacier Mass Balance.

Degree: 2019, University of Manchester

URL: http://www.manchester.ac.uk/escholar/uk-ac-man-scw:321737

►

Twelve published papers are submitted for this D.Sc. thesis. The papers were published in 1995 to 2009 when Roger Braithwaite was employed by the University… (more)

Subjects/Keywords: Glacier; Mass balance; Sea level; Climate; Model

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APA (6^th Edition):

Braithwaite, R. J. (2019). Geography of Glacier Mass Balance. (Doctoral Dissertation). University of Manchester. Retrieved from http://www.manchester.ac.uk/escholar/uk-ac-man-scw:321737

Chicago Manual of Style (16^th Edition):

Braithwaite, Roger James. “Geography of Glacier Mass Balance.” 2019. Doctoral Dissertation, University of Manchester. Accessed January 18, 2021. http://www.manchester.ac.uk/escholar/uk-ac-man-scw:321737.

MLA Handbook (7^th Edition):

Braithwaite, Roger James. “Geography of Glacier Mass Balance.” 2019. Web. 18 Jan 2021.

Vancouver:

Braithwaite RJ. Geography of Glacier Mass Balance. [Internet] [Doctoral dissertation]. University of Manchester; 2019. [cited 2021 Jan 18]. Available from: http://www.manchester.ac.uk/escholar/uk-ac-man-scw:321737.

Council of Science Editors:

Braithwaite RJ. Geography of Glacier Mass Balance. [Doctoral Dissertation]. University of Manchester; 2019. Available from: http://www.manchester.ac.uk/escholar/uk-ac-man-scw:321737

Université Catholique de Louvain

25. Bouillon, Sylvain. Sea ice rheologies for large-scale models.

Degree: 2013, Université Catholique de Louvain

URL: http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/127190

►

Current sea ice models are far from simulating the complex behavior of the Arctic ice pack. When used at high resolution, they do not provide… (more)

Subjects/Keywords: Climate; Model; Sea ice; Arctic; Deformation

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APA (6^th Edition):

Bouillon, S. (2013). Sea ice rheologies for large-scale models. (Thesis). Université Catholique de Louvain. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/127190

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Chicago Manual of Style (16^th Edition):

Bouillon, Sylvain. “Sea ice rheologies for large-scale models.” 2013. Thesis, Université Catholique de Louvain. Accessed January 18, 2021. http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/127190.

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

MLA Handbook (7^th Edition):

Bouillon, Sylvain. “Sea ice rheologies for large-scale models.” 2013. Web. 18 Jan 2021.

Vancouver:

Bouillon S. Sea ice rheologies for large-scale models. [Internet] [Thesis]. Université Catholique de Louvain; 2013. [cited 2021 Jan 18]. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/127190.

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Council of Science Editors:

Bouillon S. Sea ice rheologies for large-scale models. [Thesis]. Université Catholique de Louvain; 2013. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/127190

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

University of Manchester

26. Braithwaite, Roger. Geography of glacier mass balance.

Degree: Thesis (D.Sc.), 2019, University of Manchester

URL: https://www.research.manchester.ac.uk/portal/en/theses/geography-of-glacier-mass-balance(7c92e0d0-9025-421f-b5ef-4e7a1d84492e).html ; https://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.791241

► Twelve published papers are submitted for this D.Sc. thesis. The papers were published in 1995 to 2009 when Roger Braithwaite was employed by the University… (more)

Subjects/Keywords: Climate; Model; Sea level; Glacier; Mass balance

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APA (6^th Edition):

Braithwaite, R. (2019). Geography of glacier mass balance. (Doctoral Dissertation). University of Manchester. Retrieved from https://www.research.manchester.ac.uk/portal/en/theses/geography-of-glacier-mass-balance(7c92e0d0-9025-421f-b5ef-4e7a1d84492e).html ; https://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.791241

Chicago Manual of Style (16^th Edition):

Braithwaite, Roger. “Geography of glacier mass balance.” 2019. Doctoral Dissertation, University of Manchester. Accessed January 18, 2021. https://www.research.manchester.ac.uk/portal/en/theses/geography-of-glacier-mass-balance(7c92e0d0-9025-421f-b5ef-4e7a1d84492e).html ; https://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.791241.

MLA Handbook (7^th Edition):

Braithwaite, Roger. “Geography of glacier mass balance.” 2019. Web. 18 Jan 2021.

Vancouver:

Braithwaite R. Geography of glacier mass balance. [Internet] [Doctoral dissertation]. University of Manchester; 2019. [cited 2021 Jan 18]. Available from: https://www.research.manchester.ac.uk/portal/en/theses/geography-of-glacier-mass-balance(7c92e0d0-9025-421f-b5ef-4e7a1d84492e).html ; https://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.791241.

Council of Science Editors:

Braithwaite R. Geography of glacier mass balance. [Doctoral Dissertation]. University of Manchester; 2019. Available from: https://www.research.manchester.ac.uk/portal/en/theses/geography-of-glacier-mass-balance(7c92e0d0-9025-421f-b5ef-4e7a1d84492e).html ; https://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.791241

University of Florida

27. Hernandez Ochoa, Ixchel Manuela. Crop Production and Climate Change: Impacts, Adaptation Strategies and Uncertainty.

Degree: PhD, Agricultural and Biological Engineering, 2018, University of Florida

URL: https://ufdc.ufl.edu/UFE0053939

Subjects/Keywords: agriculture; climate; model

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APA · Chicago · MLA · Vancouver · CSE | Export to Zotero / EndNote / Reference Manager

APA (6^th Edition):

Hernandez Ochoa, I. M. (2018). Crop Production and Climate Change: Impacts, Adaptation Strategies and Uncertainty. (Doctoral Dissertation). University of Florida. Retrieved from https://ufdc.ufl.edu/UFE0053939

Chicago Manual of Style (16^th Edition):

Hernandez Ochoa, Ixchel Manuela. “Crop Production and Climate Change: Impacts, Adaptation Strategies and Uncertainty.” 2018. Doctoral Dissertation, University of Florida. Accessed January 18, 2021. https://ufdc.ufl.edu/UFE0053939.

MLA Handbook (7^th Edition):

Hernandez Ochoa, Ixchel Manuela. “Crop Production and Climate Change: Impacts, Adaptation Strategies and Uncertainty.” 2018. Web. 18 Jan 2021.

Vancouver:

Hernandez Ochoa IM. Crop Production and Climate Change: Impacts, Adaptation Strategies and Uncertainty. [Internet] [Doctoral dissertation]. University of Florida; 2018. [cited 2021 Jan 18]. Available from: https://ufdc.ufl.edu/UFE0053939.

Council of Science Editors:

Hernandez Ochoa IM. Crop Production and Climate Change: Impacts, Adaptation Strategies and Uncertainty. [Doctoral Dissertation]. University of Florida; 2018. Available from: https://ufdc.ufl.edu/UFE0053939

University of Illinois – Urbana-Champaign

28. Qiao, Fengxue. CWRF summer precipitation prediction over the United States land and coastal oceans: effects of ensemble cumulus parameterization closures.

Degree: PhD, 0334, 2013, University of Illinois – Urbana-Champaign

URL: http://hdl.handle.net/2142/44444

► A long-standing problem in climate modeling is the accurate prediction of precipitation with respect to three key characteristics: geographic variation of total amount, frequency and… (more)

▼ A long-standing problem in climate modeling is the accurate prediction of precipitation with respect to three key characteristics: geographic variation of total amount, frequency and intensity, and the diurnal cycle. In particular, coarse-resolution climate models have low predictive skills at regional scales, while the higher-resolution regional climate/weather models show improved downscaling skill but still exhibit biases and are highly sensitive to cumulus parameterization (CUP) especially during the summer. Most current models also tend to predict rainfall too early in the daytime and too frequently at the light intensity over both land and oceans. These problems have been identified with model deficiencies in CUP. As the core problem of CUP, cumulus closure assumptions fundamentally determine the location, frequency and intensity of convective rainfall. Numerous closures have been proposed, but there is no consensus with respect to their relative performance. This study uses the CWRF model which incorporates an Ensemble Cumulus Parameterization (ECP) scheme to evaluate the performance of different widely-used closures for summer precipitation prediction regarding the above three key features. The ECP includes five major groups of closure assumptions with 16 different algorithms: the Arakawa-Schubert quasi-equilibrium (AS), the vertical velocity (W), the moisture convergence (MC), the total instability adjustment (KF), and the instability tendency (TD). Extensive experiments are conducted by implementing these closures separately over the continental U.S. and adjacent coastal oceans. Results show that cumulus closures significantly affect U.S. precipitation patterns, heavy rainfall occurrence, and the diurnal cycle, with strong regional dependence differing between land and coastal oceans. Over the U.S. coastal oceans, two closure algorithms using the average vertical velocity at the cloud base (W_2) and moisture convergence (MC_3) complementarily reproduce the summer precipitation patterns and amount, and both skillfully capture the frequency of heavy rainfall events. However, the instability tendency closures are superior in capturing the diurnal phase but with much larger amount deficits. This suggests that cloud base vertical velocity and moisture convergence primarily determine seasonal mean and daily precipitation variability, but the instability tendency plays a critical role in regulating precipitation sub-daily variation. Over the continental U.S., the MC closure most realistically reproduces Central U.S. summer rainfall amount, daily precipitation variation and frequency distribution, but produces wet biases over the North American Monsoon (NAM) region and Southeast U.S. which can be significantly reduced by using the W closure. Further skill enhancement can be made using an optimized ensemble of the MC and W closures. The TD and KF closures show advantages in capturing the diurnal signals over the Central U.S. and NAM, respectively. This reasonably explains the systematic behaviors of several… Advisors/Committee Members: Liang, Xin-Zhong (advisor), Liang, Xin-Zhong (Committee Chair), Wuebbles, Donald J. (committee member), McFarquhar, Greg M. (committee member), Kumar, Praveen (committee member).

Subjects/Keywords: cumulus parameterization; regional climate model; precipitation prediction

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APA · Chicago · MLA · Vancouver · CSE | Export to Zotero / EndNote / Reference Manager

APA (6^th Edition):

Qiao, F. (2013). CWRF summer precipitation prediction over the United States land and coastal oceans: effects of ensemble cumulus parameterization closures. (Doctoral Dissertation). University of Illinois – Urbana-Champaign. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/2142/44444

Chicago Manual of Style (16^th Edition):

Qiao, Fengxue. “CWRF summer precipitation prediction over the United States land and coastal oceans: effects of ensemble cumulus parameterization closures.” 2013. Doctoral Dissertation, University of Illinois – Urbana-Champaign. Accessed January 18, 2021. http://hdl.handle.net/2142/44444.

MLA Handbook (7^th Edition):

Qiao, Fengxue. “CWRF summer precipitation prediction over the United States land and coastal oceans: effects of ensemble cumulus parameterization closures.” 2013. Web. 18 Jan 2021.

Vancouver:

Qiao F. CWRF summer precipitation prediction over the United States land and coastal oceans: effects of ensemble cumulus parameterization closures. [Internet] [Doctoral dissertation]. University of Illinois – Urbana-Champaign; 2013. [cited 2021 Jan 18]. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/2142/44444.

Council of Science Editors:

Qiao F. CWRF summer precipitation prediction over the United States land and coastal oceans: effects of ensemble cumulus parameterization closures. [Doctoral Dissertation]. University of Illinois – Urbana-Champaign; 2013. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/2142/44444

University of Minnesota

29. Heyman, Megan. Bootstrap Techniques in the Partial Linear Model.

Degree: PhD, Statistics, 2016, University of Minnesota

URL: http://hdl.handle.net/11299/181739

► As a tree grows, the trunk diameter increases, and in a typical year, a tree-ring is produced. The width of this ring reflects growing conditions… (more)

Subjects/Keywords: bootstrap; climate; partial linear model; wavelets

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APA · Chicago · MLA · Vancouver · CSE | Export to Zotero / EndNote / Reference Manager

APA (6^th Edition):

Heyman, M. (2016). Bootstrap Techniques in the Partial Linear Model. (Doctoral Dissertation). University of Minnesota. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/11299/181739

Chicago Manual of Style (16^th Edition):

Heyman, Megan. “Bootstrap Techniques in the Partial Linear Model.” 2016. Doctoral Dissertation, University of Minnesota. Accessed January 18, 2021. http://hdl.handle.net/11299/181739.

MLA Handbook (7^th Edition):

Heyman, Megan. “Bootstrap Techniques in the Partial Linear Model.” 2016. Web. 18 Jan 2021.

Vancouver:

Heyman M. Bootstrap Techniques in the Partial Linear Model. [Internet] [Doctoral dissertation]. University of Minnesota; 2016. [cited 2021 Jan 18]. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/11299/181739.

Council of Science Editors:

Heyman M. Bootstrap Techniques in the Partial Linear Model. [Doctoral Dissertation]. University of Minnesota; 2016. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/11299/181739

Boise State University

30. Gelb, Lucy. Using Landlab, a Fine Scale Biogeography Model, to Measure the Sustainability of Semi-Arid Vegetation in a Changing Climate.

Degree: 2018, Boise State University

URL: https://scholarworks.boisestate.edu/td/1391

► The distribution of vegetation in water-limited ecosystems is a product of complex and nonlinear interactions between climatic forcings (e.g., precipitation, temperature, solar radiation) and the… (more)

▼ The distribution of vegetation in water-limited ecosystems is a product of complex and nonlinear interactions between climatic forcings (e.g., precipitation, temperature, solar radiation) and the underlying geomorphic template, which includes topography, geology, and soils. Changes in climate, particularly in precipitation and temperature, can dramatically alter the organization of vegetation. This is especially true in ecotones such as our area of study: the semi-arid transition between Great Basin shrub-steppe ecosystems and the coniferous forests of the Northern Rockies. Understanding and predicting how the spatial composition of terrestrial vegetation communities will change in these ecosystems is critical to predicting important future landscape changes such as landslides, erosion, fires, and water storage capacity. This study promotes understanding of the relative sensitivity of vegetation types to changes in weather and climate in water-limited environments using a land modeling framework. Specifically, we use the Landlab framework to develop and conduct a suite of numerical experiments that use ensemble methods to diagnose how changes in precipitation and temperature regimes affect the organization of plant functional types across varying hillslope aspects. This methodology yielded a broader perspective than previous studies that rely on analysis of deterministic runs, including detailed information about the variation within the results of each climate scenario we modeled. The impact of topographic variation such as changes in elevation or aspect are not not the same for temperature and precipitation, and understanding the relative importance of each is useful when extending the implications of results from this study to varying real-world locations. We synthesized a watershed using Landlab’s landscape evolution capabilities to produce a topographic setting with contrasting hillslope aspects and randomly seeded vegetation (trees, shrubs, grasses, and bare soil). We then allowed that initial vegetation distribution to equilibrate to climatic conditions broadly consistent with contemporary climate. We then subjected the output distribution of vegetation to a perturbed climate, created by interpolating a group of Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project 5 (CMIP5) climate projections that were downscaled using the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) method to the approximate elevation of the site. We designed a suite of numerical experiments that investigated the sensitivity of the distribution of vegetation to changes in precipitation and temperature independently, as well as the combined effects of changes in both. To examine the sensitivity of vegetation composition to individual realizations of precipitation and temperature time series, and therefore the robustness of any conclusions about changes in vegetation composition to climate change, we took an ensemble approach with all simulations in which five-hundred realizations of precipitation and temperature forcings consistent with the altered…

Subjects/Keywords: climate; model; semi-arid; vegetation; Hydrology

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APA · Chicago · MLA · Vancouver · CSE | Export to Zotero / EndNote / Reference Manager

APA (6^th Edition):

Gelb, L. (2018). Using Landlab, a Fine Scale Biogeography Model, to Measure the Sustainability of Semi-Arid Vegetation in a Changing Climate. (Thesis). Boise State University. Retrieved from https://scholarworks.boisestate.edu/td/1391

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Chicago Manual of Style (16^th Edition):

Gelb, Lucy. “Using Landlab, a Fine Scale Biogeography Model, to Measure the Sustainability of Semi-Arid Vegetation in a Changing Climate.” 2018. Thesis, Boise State University. Accessed January 18, 2021. https://scholarworks.boisestate.edu/td/1391.

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

MLA Handbook (7^th Edition):

Gelb, Lucy. “Using Landlab, a Fine Scale Biogeography Model, to Measure the Sustainability of Semi-Arid Vegetation in a Changing Climate.” 2018. Web. 18 Jan 2021.

Vancouver:

Gelb L. Using Landlab, a Fine Scale Biogeography Model, to Measure the Sustainability of Semi-Arid Vegetation in a Changing Climate. [Internet] [Thesis]. Boise State University; 2018. [cited 2021 Jan 18]. Available from: https://scholarworks.boisestate.edu/td/1391.

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Council of Science Editors:

Gelb L. Using Landlab, a Fine Scale Biogeography Model, to Measure the Sustainability of Semi-Arid Vegetation in a Changing Climate. [Thesis]. Boise State University; 2018. Available from: https://scholarworks.boisestate.edu/td/1391

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Open Access Theses and Dissertations