subject:(Climate Models)

University of Cape Town

1. Kent, Michael L. A mode-based metric for evaluating global climate models.

Degree: Image, Environmental and Geographical Science, 2018, University of Cape Town

► Climate models are software tools that simulate the climate system and require evaluation to assess their skill, guide their development, and assist in selecting model… (more)

▼ Climate models are software tools that simulate the climate system and require evaluation to assess their skill, guide their development, and assist in selecting model simulations from among the many different ones available. There are a variety of methods and approaches that can be used to evaluate models. But there is no one best method and many possible and valid approaches exist. Models contain inherent uncertainties which complicate their evaluation, and include limitations in the knowledge of climate process dynamics and structural errors in constructing the models. Similar to the multiplicity of methods for the evaluation of model simulations, there also exist many possible approaches to addressing these sources of uncertainty. The challenge with uncertainty, is the difficulty in disaggregating it from the underlying element of legitimate chaotic behaviour in complex systems. In response, this dissertation is primarily one of methodological development to contribute to new ways of addressing the model evaluation challenge. The work defines and demonstrates a new evaluation method which complements the existing toolset. Specifically, the method defines a model performance metric that focuses on the extent to which a model is able to simulate global modes of climate variability (modes, e.g.: ENSO) evident in the observed climate data. Modes are one aspect of the climate that can be evaluated and are fundamental to model skill. Therefore their credible simulation is a necessary (but not sufficient) condition to ensuring that models are producing the right result (appropriate variability on the range of spatial and temporal scales) for the right reason. By ranking models by this metric of their skill in capturing fundamental global modes, poorly performing model simulations can be identified for potential exclusion (discounted). This metric therefore serves as a potential method to assist in the management of uncertainty when assessing multi-model data. The method develops a novel application of Independent Component Analysis (ICA). ICA is used to find representations of modes in a record of the present day climate (represented by reanalysis data), and then their degree of manifestation in global models is assessed. Recognising the large volume of model data (highly autocorrelated in space and time) the technique includes a data reduction technique to facilitate the evaluation of multiple model simulations. The technique also includes a novel measure of variance to differentiate it from a similar technique (Principal Component Analysis), and offers an approach to improve the consistency of results (signals) when using an unmixing matrix initialized with random values. As reanalysis data is itself a model product (constrained by observations), the performance metric is tested for its strength in discriminating modes by using two different reanalysis datasets and a dataset containing only Gaussian noise. The metric is found to perform predictably, and clearly demonstrates the ability to discriminate signal from… Advisors/Committee Members: Hewitson, Bruce (advisor), Jack, Christopher David (advisor).

Subjects/Keywords: Climate models

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APA (6^th Edition):

Kent, M. L. (2018). A mode-based metric for evaluating global climate models. (Thesis). University of Cape Town. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/11427/27832

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Chicago Manual of Style (16^th Edition):

Kent, Michael L. “A mode-based metric for evaluating global climate models.” 2018. Thesis, University of Cape Town. Accessed December 16, 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/27832.

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

MLA Handbook (7^th Edition):

Kent, Michael L. “A mode-based metric for evaluating global climate models.” 2018. Web. 16 Dec 2019.

Vancouver:

Kent ML. A mode-based metric for evaluating global climate models. [Internet] [Thesis]. University of Cape Town; 2018. [cited 2019 Dec 16]. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/11427/27832.

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Council of Science Editors:

Kent ML. A mode-based metric for evaluating global climate models. [Thesis]. University of Cape Town; 2018. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/11427/27832

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

University of Waterloo

2. Thackeray, Chad William. Using a hierarchy of climate models to investigate snow processes influencing surface albedo.

Degree: 2017, University of Waterloo

URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10012/12157

► Northern Hemisphere (NH) extratropical land has experienced dramatic warming over the past century, a trend that is expected to continue in the coming decades. There… (more)

▼ Northern Hemisphere (NH) extratropical land has experienced dramatic warming over the past century, a trend that is expected to continue in the coming decades. There is however, significant uncertainty surrounding projections of climate change. Warming has major impacts on the terrestrial cryosphere, particularly its largest component, snow cover. Snow is a significant climatological variable because of its role in the surface radiative and water balances. The combination of extensive snow cover and relatively high incoming radiation during spring make the NH climate system highly sensitive to concurrent changes in surface albedo, largely tied to snow albedo feedback (SAF). SAF is a positive feedback climate mechanism, whereby an initial warming is enhanced through a reduction in surface albedo resulting from melting snow (revealing a darker, less reflective surface). The current generation of global climate models (GCMs) accurately capture this process on average, but there is a large intermodel spread that arises because of differences in model design. Variability in SAF has been shown to account for 40-50% of the spread in projected NH land warming. To better synthesize the current state of knowledge regarding snow albedo feedback, a review article on the topic was published (Chapter 2). In this chapter, we summarize the importance of SAF, estimates from both models and observations, factors influencing the spread in SAF, and outstanding issues related to our understanding of the physical processes that control SAF. The remainder of this thesis focuses on the critical evaluation of processes influencing simulated SAF (snow cover and surface albedo). Prior research has shown that a commonly used GCM (Community Climate System Model; CCSM) suffers from a weak bias in SAF over the boreal forest and links this to deficiencies in how it represents snow processes. This model bias is traced to the way snow interacts with the forest canopy layer causing snow-covered surface albedo to decrease prematurely. Following on from this work, we expand our analysis to evaluate all current GCMs to see if this issue is prevalent elsewhere. Using a variety of metrics, the models are shown to have substantial biases in simulated surface albedo over snow-covered land (especially boreal forest and non-boreal tundra). Model biases are principally tied to either the timing (i.e., CCSM) or magnitude of seasonal changes in surface albedo. Having demonstrated deficiencies in the simulation of surface albedo, we next determine the impact that these model biases have on climate (Chapter 4). The experimental design overrides the model’s (biased) internal calculation of albedo and replaces it with prescribed albedo data, derived from satellite observations, or from another model. Results show that correcting the albedo in CESM (successor of CCSM) pushes the model further away from observed temperature (implying the presence of other biases), with robust cooling during winter and spring. It also induces a pattern reversal of climatological…

Subjects/Keywords: climate; snow; climate models; albedo

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APA · Chicago · MLA · Vancouver · CSE | Export to Zotero / EndNote / Reference Manager

APA (6^th Edition):

Thackeray, C. W. (2017). Using a hierarchy of climate models to investigate snow processes influencing surface albedo. (Thesis). University of Waterloo. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/10012/12157

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Chicago Manual of Style (16^th Edition):

Thackeray, Chad William. “Using a hierarchy of climate models to investigate snow processes influencing surface albedo.” 2017. Thesis, University of Waterloo. Accessed December 16, 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/10012/12157.

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

MLA Handbook (7^th Edition):

Thackeray, Chad William. “Using a hierarchy of climate models to investigate snow processes influencing surface albedo.” 2017. Web. 16 Dec 2019.

Vancouver:

Thackeray CW. Using a hierarchy of climate models to investigate snow processes influencing surface albedo. [Internet] [Thesis]. University of Waterloo; 2017. [cited 2019 Dec 16]. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/10012/12157.

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Council of Science Editors:

Thackeray CW. Using a hierarchy of climate models to investigate snow processes influencing surface albedo. [Thesis]. University of Waterloo; 2017. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/10012/12157

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

University of Cape Town

3. Pinto, Izidine S de Sousa. Future changes in extreme rainfall events and circulation patterns over southern Africa.

Degree: Image, Environmental and Geographical Science, 2015, University of Cape Town

URL: http://hdl.handle.net/11427/16781

► Changes in precipitation extremes are projected by many global climate models as a response to greenhouse gas increases, and such changes will have significant environmental… (more)

Subjects/Keywords: Environmental Science; Climate Change; climate models

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APA (6^th Edition):

Pinto, I. S. d. S. (2015). Future changes in extreme rainfall events and circulation patterns over southern Africa. (Thesis). University of Cape Town. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/11427/16781

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Chicago Manual of Style (16^th Edition):

Pinto, Izidine S de Sousa. “Future changes in extreme rainfall events and circulation patterns over southern Africa.” 2015. Thesis, University of Cape Town. Accessed December 16, 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/16781.

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

MLA Handbook (7^th Edition):

Pinto, Izidine S de Sousa. “Future changes in extreme rainfall events and circulation patterns over southern Africa.” 2015. Web. 16 Dec 2019.

Vancouver:

Pinto ISdS. Future changes in extreme rainfall events and circulation patterns over southern Africa. [Internet] [Thesis]. University of Cape Town; 2015. [cited 2019 Dec 16]. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/11427/16781.

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Council of Science Editors:

Pinto ISdS. Future changes in extreme rainfall events and circulation patterns over southern Africa. [Thesis]. University of Cape Town; 2015. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/11427/16781

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

University of New South Wales

4. Cowan, Timothy. The impact of anthropogenic aerosols on the large-scale atmosphere and ocean circulation patterns.

Degree: Biological, 2015, University of New South Wales

URL: http://handle.unsw.edu.au/1959.4/54280 ; https://unsworks.unsw.edu.au/fapi/datastream/unsworks:34646/SOURCE02?view=true

► This research describes the role that human emitted aerosols play in influencing the circulation patterns of the ocean and atmosphere on a global and regional… (more)

▼ This research describes the role that human emitted aerosols play in influencing the circulation patterns of the ocean and atmosphere on a global and regional scale. Utilising targeted experiments from global climate models, it is shown that aerosols induce a substantial cooling over the Northern Hemisphere. This has a wide ranging impact, from suppressing the Asian summer monsoon to mitigating the slowdown of the global meridional overturning circulation due to greenhouse warming. Simulations over the late twentieth century that isolate the impacts of anthropogenic aerosols, also suggest that these pollutants have enhanced the cooling of the sub-surface tropical and subtropical oceans of the Southern Hemisphere. Aerosols are also implicated in altering the mean climatological conditions across the tropical Indian Ocean, contributing to the enhanced asymmetry between the phases of the Indian Ocean dipole. Coupled ocean-atmosphere modelling experiments show that the increase in Asian anthropogenic aerosol emissions in the late twentieth century played a very minor role in the aforementioned circulation trends, particularly the weakening of the Asian monsoon and strengthening of the global meridional overturning circulation. The enhanced climatic response to aerosols in the atmosphere and ocean circulation predominantly resulted from historical emissions from Europe, the Former Soviet Union and North America in the mid-twentieth century. The research highlights the many uncertainties that are associated with anthropogenic aerosols and their potential impacts in coupled ocean-atmosphere models. This has far-reaching implications given that, globally,human-generated aerosols are projected to further decline in the twenty-first century, potentially unmasking the wide-reaching impact of greenhouse-induced warming on the climate. Advisors/Committee Members: Cai, Wenju, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere Flagship, England, Matthew, Climate Change Research Centre (CCRC), Faculty of Science, UNSW.

Subjects/Keywords: Global climate models; Aerosols; Climate change

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APA · Chicago · MLA · Vancouver · CSE | Export to Zotero / EndNote / Reference Manager

APA (6^th Edition):

Cowan, T. (2015). The impact of anthropogenic aerosols on the large-scale atmosphere and ocean circulation patterns. (Doctoral Dissertation). University of New South Wales. Retrieved from http://handle.unsw.edu.au/1959.4/54280 ; https://unsworks.unsw.edu.au/fapi/datastream/unsworks:34646/SOURCE02?view=true

Chicago Manual of Style (16^th Edition):

Cowan, Timothy. “The impact of anthropogenic aerosols on the large-scale atmosphere and ocean circulation patterns.” 2015. Doctoral Dissertation, University of New South Wales. Accessed December 16, 2019. http://handle.unsw.edu.au/1959.4/54280 ; https://unsworks.unsw.edu.au/fapi/datastream/unsworks:34646/SOURCE02?view=true.

MLA Handbook (7^th Edition):

Cowan, Timothy. “The impact of anthropogenic aerosols on the large-scale atmosphere and ocean circulation patterns.” 2015. Web. 16 Dec 2019.

Vancouver:

Cowan T. The impact of anthropogenic aerosols on the large-scale atmosphere and ocean circulation patterns. [Internet] [Doctoral dissertation]. University of New South Wales; 2015. [cited 2019 Dec 16]. Available from: http://handle.unsw.edu.au/1959.4/54280 ; https://unsworks.unsw.edu.au/fapi/datastream/unsworks:34646/SOURCE02?view=true.

Council of Science Editors:

Cowan T. The impact of anthropogenic aerosols on the large-scale atmosphere and ocean circulation patterns. [Doctoral Dissertation]. University of New South Wales; 2015. Available from: http://handle.unsw.edu.au/1959.4/54280 ; https://unsworks.unsw.edu.au/fapi/datastream/unsworks:34646/SOURCE02?view=true

University of Utah

5. Bogenschutz, Peter A. Improving the representation of turbulence and clouds in cloud resolving models and general circulation models.

Degree: PhD, Atmospheric Sciences, 2013, University of Utah

URL: http://content.lib.utah.edu/cdm/singleitem/collection/etd3/id/2676/rec/1327

► Over the past few years a new type of general circulation model (GCM) has emerged that is known as the multiscale modeling framework (MMF). The… (more)

▼ Over the past few years a new type of general circulation model (GCM) has emerged that is known as the multiscale modeling framework (MMF). The ColoradoState University (CSU) MMF represents a coupling between the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) GCM and the System of Atmospheric Modeling (SAM)cloud resolving model (CRM). Within this MMF the embedded CRM replaces the traditionally used parameterized moist physics in CAM to represent subgrid-scale (SGS) convection. However, due to substantial increases of computational burdenassociated with the MMF, the embedded CRM is typically run with a horizontal grid size of 4 km. With a horizontal grid size of 4 km, a low-order closure CRM cannotadequately represent shallow convective processes, such as trade-wind cumulus or stratocumulus.A computationally inexpensive parameterization of turbulence and clouds is presented in this dissertation. An extensive a priori test is performed to determine which functional form of an assumed PDF is best suited for coarse-grid CRMs for both deep shallow and deep convection.The diagnostic approach to determine the input moments needed for the assumed PDFs uses the subgrid-scale (SGS) turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) as the basis forthe parameterization. The term known as the turbulent length scale (L) is examined, as it is needed to parameterize the dissipation of turbulence and therefore is needed to better balance the budgets of SGS TKE. A new formulation of this term is added to the model code which appears to be able to partition resolved and SGS TKE fairly accurately.Results from “offline” tests of the simple diagnostic closure within SAM shows that the cloud and turbulence properties of shallow convection can be adequatelyrepresented when compared to large eddy simulation (LES) benchmark simulations.Results are greatly improved when compared to the standard version of SAM. The preliminary test of the scheme within the embedded CRM of the MMF shows promising results with the simulation of shallow convection. Overall, this scheme represents a new type of flexible turbulence and cloud parameterization that is computationally efficient.

Subjects/Keywords: Climate models; Clouds; Turbulence

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APA · Chicago · MLA · Vancouver · CSE | Export to Zotero / EndNote / Reference Manager

APA (6^th Edition):

Bogenschutz, P. A. (2013). Improving the representation of turbulence and clouds in cloud resolving models and general circulation models. (Doctoral Dissertation). University of Utah. Retrieved from http://content.lib.utah.edu/cdm/singleitem/collection/etd3/id/2676/rec/1327

Chicago Manual of Style (16^th Edition):

Bogenschutz, Peter A. “Improving the representation of turbulence and clouds in cloud resolving models and general circulation models.” 2013. Doctoral Dissertation, University of Utah. Accessed December 16, 2019. http://content.lib.utah.edu/cdm/singleitem/collection/etd3/id/2676/rec/1327.

MLA Handbook (7^th Edition):

Bogenschutz, Peter A. “Improving the representation of turbulence and clouds in cloud resolving models and general circulation models.” 2013. Web. 16 Dec 2019.

Vancouver:

Bogenschutz PA. Improving the representation of turbulence and clouds in cloud resolving models and general circulation models. [Internet] [Doctoral dissertation]. University of Utah; 2013. [cited 2019 Dec 16]. Available from: http://content.lib.utah.edu/cdm/singleitem/collection/etd3/id/2676/rec/1327.

Council of Science Editors:

Bogenschutz PA. Improving the representation of turbulence and clouds in cloud resolving models and general circulation models. [Doctoral Dissertation]. University of Utah; 2013. Available from: http://content.lib.utah.edu/cdm/singleitem/collection/etd3/id/2676/rec/1327

6. Fullick, Simon Geoffrey. Energy Balance Models With Three Phases Of Water Feedback.

Degree: Physics and Astronomy, 2014, University of Canterbury

URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10092/9440

► Simple one-dimensional heat balance equations have been used to understand climate concepts since the 1960s, when a class of models was developed known as energy… (more)

▼ Simple one-dimensional heat balance equations have been used to understand climate concepts since the 1960s, when a class of models was developed known as energy balance models (EBMs). EBMs use the growth or loss of polar surface ice as a climatic feedback, giving rise to surprisingly complex non-linear behaviours. One aspect of EBMs that has been relatively poorly examined is the effects of feedbacks caused by the other two phases of water in Earth’s climate other than ice: water clouds and water vapour. Cloud and water vapour play a critical role in the energy balance of Earth’s climate, and yet are some of the least well understood elements of the global climate system. This thesis explores the behaviour and interrelationships of climatic feedbacks caused by water in all three phases as it exists in the climate: surface ice caps, water vapour, and liquid water clouds. A two-layered EBM was modiﬁed with parameterizations of water vapour and liquid water clouds in order to conduct experiments. Three variants of the model were produced, each with progressively more water feedbacks than the last: a 1 phase model (with only surface ice feedback), a 2 phase model (with surface ice and water vapour) and a 3 phase model (with surface ice, water vapour, and cloud). The models were found to give generally realistic results, but with an underestimation of water vapour density, which in turn reduced the generated cloud fraction in the 3 phase model. Thus, the impacts of these extra feedbacks were likely to be underestimated in the analysis in general. The sensitivity of the model to several prognostic variables was studied by observing the changes in the model to a range of each variable. The 3 phase model was less sensitive to changes to the solar constant, S0, which measures incoming solar radiation, than the 1 phase model. This was probably caused by cloud reﬂecting and absorbing some radiation from the sun that would have otherwise reached the surface, changing the ratio of atmospheric heat transport to surface heat transport from 2.4953 for the 1 phase model to 2.0626 for the 3 phase model. Changing surface and ice albedo values resulted in changes in the model’s stability. The model was found to be insensitive to changes in surface humidity that drives the amount of water vapour the system has available, due to underestimation of water vapour in the model. The stability of the model was examined, and the 1 phase model was found to respond faster to changes in S0 than the 3 phase model. The model was tested for hysteresis, which was conﬁrmed for all three model variants. The 1 phase model showed less stability then the 3 phase model as S0 was increased, but both models were similarly stable as S0 was decreased.

Subjects/Keywords: EBM; climate models; atmospheric physics

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APA (6^th Edition):

Fullick, S. G. (2014). Energy Balance Models With Three Phases Of Water Feedback. (Thesis). University of Canterbury. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/10092/9440

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Chicago Manual of Style (16^th Edition):

Fullick, Simon Geoffrey. “Energy Balance Models With Three Phases Of Water Feedback.” 2014. Thesis, University of Canterbury. Accessed December 16, 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/10092/9440.

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

MLA Handbook (7^th Edition):

Fullick, Simon Geoffrey. “Energy Balance Models With Three Phases Of Water Feedback.” 2014. Web. 16 Dec 2019.

Vancouver:

Fullick SG. Energy Balance Models With Three Phases Of Water Feedback. [Internet] [Thesis]. University of Canterbury; 2014. [cited 2019 Dec 16]. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/10092/9440.

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Council of Science Editors:

Fullick SG. Energy Balance Models With Three Phases Of Water Feedback. [Thesis]. University of Canterbury; 2014. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/10092/9440

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Universiteit Utrecht

7. Berge, L.A. van den. Improving simulations by combining imperfect models through learning.

Degree: 2010, Universiteit Utrecht

URL: http://dspace.library.uu.nl:8080/handle/1874/190314

► With the uprising climate problems like the warming due to greenhouse gasses, the need for future climate scenarios is growing fast. Many state of the… (more)

Subjects/Keywords: climate models; chaos theory; similations

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APA (6^th Edition):

Berge, L. A. v. d. (2010). Improving simulations by combining imperfect models through learning. (Masters Thesis). Universiteit Utrecht. Retrieved from http://dspace.library.uu.nl:8080/handle/1874/190314

Chicago Manual of Style (16^th Edition):

Berge, L A van den. “Improving simulations by combining imperfect models through learning.” 2010. Masters Thesis, Universiteit Utrecht. Accessed December 16, 2019. http://dspace.library.uu.nl:8080/handle/1874/190314.

MLA Handbook (7^th Edition):

Berge, L A van den. “Improving simulations by combining imperfect models through learning.” 2010. Web. 16 Dec 2019.

Vancouver:

Berge LAvd. Improving simulations by combining imperfect models through learning. [Internet] [Masters thesis]. Universiteit Utrecht; 2010. [cited 2019 Dec 16]. Available from: http://dspace.library.uu.nl:8080/handle/1874/190314.

Council of Science Editors:

Berge LAvd. Improving simulations by combining imperfect models through learning. [Masters Thesis]. Universiteit Utrecht; 2010. Available from: http://dspace.library.uu.nl:8080/handle/1874/190314

8. Foley, Aideen. Quantifying sources of uncertainty in regional climate model scenarios for Ireland.

Degree: 2010, RIAN

URL: http://eprints.maynoothuniversity.ie/2438/

► This thesis develops a novel framework for model skill assessment and the generation of probabilistic future climate scenarios. Traditional approaches to model validation assume that… (more)

▼ This thesis develops a novel framework for model skill assessment and the generation of probabilistic future climate scenarios. Traditional approaches to model validation assume that skill in simulating the mean climate is a valid indicator of skill in modelling the climate system. However, without information about how errors arise, conclusions cannot be drawn about whether models are genuinely skilful. Initially, verification statistics are used to assess model skill in simulating seasonal means and variability of Irish climate for 1961-1990. Significant biases were identified, however without further analysis, these biases cannot be attributed to a cause. Therefore, a spatial analysis, including EOF analysis, was undertaken which indicated that biases may be either spatially consistent (systematic) or inconsistent (random), an important distinction. Next, representation of a key large-scale driver of Irish climate, the North Atlantic Oscillation, was examined for a representative subsample of models. Skill in simulating the NAO was found to vary considerably between models. Therefore, assessing statistics of mean climate may not be the optimum way to characterize model skill, as deficiencies in the representation of large-scale drivers may not be detected. Both quantitative and qualitative information from the skill assessments was used to inform probabilistic ensemble projections of future climate using Bayesian Model Averaging. In some cases, weighting scheme variation affects the ensemble PDF shape. In other cases, PDFs are similar when different weights are used, but the relative contributions of ensemble members vary. This is a crucial finding, as this underlying variation may not be immediately apparent, but may affect the confidence attached to the PDF. Therefore, robustness of ensemble generation methods must be considered when determining the level of confidence attached to a projection. Finally, the implications of these results for climate decision-making are discussed and recommendations for the use of climate models in decision-making are presented.

Subjects/Keywords: Geography; regional climate models

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APA (6^th Edition):

Foley, A. (2010). Quantifying sources of uncertainty in regional climate model scenarios for Ireland. (Thesis). RIAN. Retrieved from http://eprints.maynoothuniversity.ie/2438/

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Chicago Manual of Style (16^th Edition):

Foley, Aideen. “Quantifying sources of uncertainty in regional climate model scenarios for Ireland.” 2010. Thesis, RIAN. Accessed December 16, 2019. http://eprints.maynoothuniversity.ie/2438/.

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

MLA Handbook (7^th Edition):

Foley, Aideen. “Quantifying sources of uncertainty in regional climate model scenarios for Ireland.” 2010. Web. 16 Dec 2019.

Vancouver:

Foley A. Quantifying sources of uncertainty in regional climate model scenarios for Ireland. [Internet] [Thesis]. RIAN; 2010. [cited 2019 Dec 16]. Available from: http://eprints.maynoothuniversity.ie/2438/.

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Council of Science Editors:

Foley A. Quantifying sources of uncertainty in regional climate model scenarios for Ireland. [Thesis]. RIAN; 2010. Available from: http://eprints.maynoothuniversity.ie/2438/

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Penn State University

9. Olson, Roman. WHAT IS THE SKILL OF CLIMATE PARAMETER ESTIMATION.

Degree: MS, Geoscience, 2010, Penn State University

URL: https://etda.libraries.psu.edu/catalog/10658

► Future climate model projections are deeply uncertain. One key driver of this uncertainty if the uncertainty in model parameters, such as climate sensitivity. Recent studies… (more)

▼ Future climate model projections are deeply uncertain. One key driver of this uncertainty if the uncertainty in model parameters, such as climate sensitivity. Recent studies have used suite of model runs together with observations to estimate these key parameters. In these studies, Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are often employed to obtain posterior probability distributions for the parameters. Despite ubiquitous use of such methods, their skill at recovering known parameter values has not been thoroughly evaluated. This study quantifies the skill of an MCMC parameter estimation method to recover true parameter values using pseudo-observations generated from an University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM). Specifically, the work addresses several key questions. First, what is the effect of reducing the combined model and observational error on the skill of the method? Second, what is the skill of different pseudo-observations to constrain model parameters? Third, what is the effect of random realizations of the combined model and observational error on results of the parameter estimation? I first run an ensemble of UVic ESCM model runs spanning the last two centuries. I vary the parameters of climate sensitivity, background vertical ocean diffusivity and strength of effects of anthropogenic aerosols between the ensemble members. I then implement a simple MCMC method to estimate the parameters using global observations of temperature and upper ocean heat content. The inversion accounts for uncertainty in the statistical properties of the potentially correlated model-data residuals, and reduces biases due to sparse sampling of the parameter space using emulation. I perform a set of perfect model experiments using pseudo-observations of globally average temperature and ocean heat content, derived from the UVic model using various assumptions about the observational and model error. I show that at current estimates of combined model and observational error the results of parameter estimation hinge critically on random realizations of the combined error process, but that the skill of the method increases rapidly if the combined error decreases. Using both temperature and ocean heat uptake observations improves the skill of the method compared to cases where only individual observations are used, except for the case of background vertical ocean diffusivity at current combined error estimates. Implications of the results for parameter estimation work are discussed and strategies for future research are outlined. In addition, I compare the the probabilistic UVic ESCM hindcasts of global average near-surface temperature with those from more complex General Circulation Models (GCMs). I show that a well calibrated intermediate complexity model such as UVic ESCM can perform comparably to GCMs in terms of skill at reproducing global mean historical temperature observations.

Subjects/Keywords: Climate sensitivity; Bayesian methods; climate models; ocean diffusivity; climate change

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APA (6^th Edition):

Olson, R. (2010). WHAT IS THE SKILL OF CLIMATE PARAMETER ESTIMATION. (Masters Thesis). Penn State University. Retrieved from https://etda.libraries.psu.edu/catalog/10658

Chicago Manual of Style (16^th Edition):

Olson, Roman. “WHAT IS THE SKILL OF CLIMATE PARAMETER ESTIMATION.” 2010. Masters Thesis, Penn State University. Accessed December 16, 2019. https://etda.libraries.psu.edu/catalog/10658.

MLA Handbook (7^th Edition):

Olson, Roman. “WHAT IS THE SKILL OF CLIMATE PARAMETER ESTIMATION.” 2010. Web. 16 Dec 2019.

Vancouver:

Olson R. WHAT IS THE SKILL OF CLIMATE PARAMETER ESTIMATION. [Internet] [Masters thesis]. Penn State University; 2010. [cited 2019 Dec 16]. Available from: https://etda.libraries.psu.edu/catalog/10658.

Council of Science Editors:

Olson R. WHAT IS THE SKILL OF CLIMATE PARAMETER ESTIMATION. [Masters Thesis]. Penn State University; 2010. Available from: https://etda.libraries.psu.edu/catalog/10658

University of Colorado

10. Yettella, Vineel. The Role of Internal Variability in Climate Change Projections Within an Initial Condition Climate Model Ensemble.

Degree: PhD, 2018, University of Colorado

URL: https://scholar.colorado.edu/atoc_gradetds/86

► Unforced internal variability abounds in the climate system and often confounds the identification of climate change due to external forcings. Given that greenhouse gas… (more)

▼ Unforced internal variability abounds in the climate system and often confounds the identification of climate change due to external forcings. Given that greenhouse gas concentrations are projected to increase for the foreseeable future, separating forced climate change from internal variability is a key concern with important implications. Here, we leverage a 40-member ensemble, the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) to investigate the influence of internal variability on the detection of forced changes in two climate phenomena. First, using cyclone identification and compositing techniques within the CESM-LE, we investigate precipitation changes in extratropical cyclones under greenhouse gas forcing and the effect of internal variability on the detection of these changes. We find that the ensemble projects increased cyclone precipitation under twenty-first century business-as-usual greenhouse gas forcing and this response exceeds internal variability in both near- and far- futures. Further, we find that these changes are almost entirely driven by increases in cyclone moisture. Next, we explore the role of internal variability in projections of the annual cycle of surface temperature over Northern Hemisphere land. Internal variability strongly confounds forced changes in the annual cycle over many regions of the Northern Hemisphere. Changes over Europe, North Africa and Siberia, however, are large and easily detectable and further, are remarkably robust across model ensembles from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) archive. Using a simple energy balance model, we find that changes in the annual cycle over the three regions are mostly driven by changes in surface heat fluxes. The thesis also presents a novel ensemble-based framework for diagnosing forced changes in regional climate variability. Changes in climate variability are commonly assessed in terms of changes in the variances of climate variables. The covariance response has received much less attention, despite the existence of large-scale modes of variability that induce covariations in climate variables over a wide range of spatial scales. Addressing this, the framework facilitiates a unified assessment of forced changes in the regional variances and covariances of climate variables. Advisors/Committee Members: Jennifer E. Kay, Jeffrey B. Weiss, Katja Friedrich, Will Kleiber, Andrew Gettelman.

Subjects/Keywords: climate change; climate model ensembles; climate models; climate variability; initial condition climate model ensembles; internal variability; Atmospheric Sciences; Climate

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APA (6^th Edition):

Yettella, V. (2018). The Role of Internal Variability in Climate Change Projections Within an Initial Condition Climate Model Ensemble. (Doctoral Dissertation). University of Colorado. Retrieved from https://scholar.colorado.edu/atoc_gradetds/86

Chicago Manual of Style (16^th Edition):

Yettella, Vineel. “The Role of Internal Variability in Climate Change Projections Within an Initial Condition Climate Model Ensemble.” 2018. Doctoral Dissertation, University of Colorado. Accessed December 16, 2019. https://scholar.colorado.edu/atoc_gradetds/86.

MLA Handbook (7^th Edition):

Yettella, Vineel. “The Role of Internal Variability in Climate Change Projections Within an Initial Condition Climate Model Ensemble.” 2018. Web. 16 Dec 2019.

Vancouver:

Yettella V. The Role of Internal Variability in Climate Change Projections Within an Initial Condition Climate Model Ensemble. [Internet] [Doctoral dissertation]. University of Colorado; 2018. [cited 2019 Dec 16]. Available from: https://scholar.colorado.edu/atoc_gradetds/86.

Council of Science Editors:

Yettella V. The Role of Internal Variability in Climate Change Projections Within an Initial Condition Climate Model Ensemble. [Doctoral Dissertation]. University of Colorado; 2018. Available from: https://scholar.colorado.edu/atoc_gradetds/86

University of Nairobi

11. Mbaabu, Idah Makena. Using mathematical models to assess the influence of climate change on malaria risk .

Degree: 2011, University of Nairobi

URL: http://erepository.uonbi.ac.ke:8080/xmlui/handle/123456789/11146

► In this study, a non-linear deterministic model is analysed to study the e ect of climate change on malaria incidence. Existence and uniqueness of solutions… (more)

Subjects/Keywords: Mathematical models; Climate change; malaria risk

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APA (6^th Edition):

Mbaabu, I. M. (2011). Using mathematical models to assess the influence of climate change on malaria risk . (Thesis). University of Nairobi. Retrieved from http://erepository.uonbi.ac.ke:8080/xmlui/handle/123456789/11146

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Chicago Manual of Style (16^th Edition):

Mbaabu, Idah Makena. “Using mathematical models to assess the influence of climate change on malaria risk .” 2011. Thesis, University of Nairobi. Accessed December 16, 2019. http://erepository.uonbi.ac.ke:8080/xmlui/handle/123456789/11146.

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

MLA Handbook (7^th Edition):

Mbaabu, Idah Makena. “Using mathematical models to assess the influence of climate change on malaria risk .” 2011. Web. 16 Dec 2019.

Vancouver:

Mbaabu IM. Using mathematical models to assess the influence of climate change on malaria risk . [Internet] [Thesis]. University of Nairobi; 2011. [cited 2019 Dec 16]. Available from: http://erepository.uonbi.ac.ke:8080/xmlui/handle/123456789/11146.

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Council of Science Editors:

Mbaabu IM. Using mathematical models to assess the influence of climate change on malaria risk . [Thesis]. University of Nairobi; 2011. Available from: http://erepository.uonbi.ac.ke:8080/xmlui/handle/123456789/11146

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

University of Tasmania

12. Helidoniotis, F. Growth of abalone (Haliotis rubra) with implications for its productivity.

Degree: 2011, University of Tasmania

URL: https://eprints.utas.edu.au/11748/1/Fay_thesis-.pdf

► The use of an incorrect growth model in fisheries management may lead to inaccurate predictions about stock productivity. In Australia, three non-nested size-based growth models… (more)

▼ The use of an incorrect growth model in fisheries management may lead to inaccurate predictions about stock productivity. In Australia, three non-nested size-based growth models are generally used to describe the growth of abalone populations: the von Bertalanffy, Gompertz and inverse logistic. The models differ in their description of growth, especially in the juvenile phase. However, while data on juveniles has the greatest discriminating power between models, in reality good data on size distributions and growth of juveniles is uncommon, and this leads to ambiguity in model selection. I use a large dataset (from the Tasmanian Aquaculture and Fisheries Institute) describing sizes and growth of juvenile and adult size classes to systematically resolve model ambiguity for blacklip abalone (Haliotis rubra) populations in Tasmania. Modal progression analysis of bimonthly data collected over two years from the same site identified two cohorts of juveniles between 10 – 75 mm shell lengths. The best statistical model was selected using standard statistical model selection procedures, i.e. Akaike’s Information Criteria and likelihood ratio tests. Despite the large data set of 4,259 specimens, model selection remained statistically ambiguous. The Gompertz was selected as the best statistical model for one cohort and the linear model for the other. Interestingly, the biological implications of the best fitting Gompertz curve were not consistent with observations from aquaculture. The study revealed that slight differences in data quality may contribute to ambiguity in statistical model selection and that biological realism is also needed as a criterion for model selection. The robustness of different growth models to sampling error that is inconsistent between samples was explored using Monte Carlo simulation and cross model simulation. The focus was on simulated length increment data largely from adult size classes (55 – 170 mm shell length) as these data are more commonplace than data from juveniles. Results confirm that the two main shortcomings in length increment data contributing to model misspecification were (i) poor representation of juvenile size classes (< 80 mm) and (ii) low sample size (n<150). Results indicate that when negative growth data are included in the von Bertalanffy model, K increases and L∞ decreases. In reality the true description of growth remains unknown. Given realistic length increment data, there is a reasonable probability that an incorrect growth model may be selected as the best statistical model. This is particularly important, because this study indicates there is a different magnitude of error associated with each growth model. The important overall finding is that while it is possible to make incorrect model selections using customary statistical fitting procedures, departures from biological reality are lower if the incorrect inverse logistic model is selected over the incorrect von Bertalanffy or Gompertz model. The selection of the most appropriate growth model was further…

Subjects/Keywords: growth models; abalone; climate change; productivity

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APA · Chicago · MLA · Vancouver · CSE | Export to Zotero / EndNote / Reference Manager

APA (6^th Edition):

Helidoniotis, F. (2011). Growth of abalone (Haliotis rubra) with implications for its productivity. (Thesis). University of Tasmania. Retrieved from https://eprints.utas.edu.au/11748/1/Fay_thesis-.pdf

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Chicago Manual of Style (16^th Edition):

Helidoniotis, F. “Growth of abalone (Haliotis rubra) with implications for its productivity.” 2011. Thesis, University of Tasmania. Accessed December 16, 2019. https://eprints.utas.edu.au/11748/1/Fay_thesis-.pdf.

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

MLA Handbook (7^th Edition):

Helidoniotis, F. “Growth of abalone (Haliotis rubra) with implications for its productivity.” 2011. Web. 16 Dec 2019.

Vancouver:

Helidoniotis F. Growth of abalone (Haliotis rubra) with implications for its productivity. [Internet] [Thesis]. University of Tasmania; 2011. [cited 2019 Dec 16]. Available from: https://eprints.utas.edu.au/11748/1/Fay_thesis-.pdf.

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Council of Science Editors:

Helidoniotis F. Growth of abalone (Haliotis rubra) with implications for its productivity. [Thesis]. University of Tasmania; 2011. Available from: https://eprints.utas.edu.au/11748/1/Fay_thesis-.pdf

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Université Catholique de Louvain

13. Klein, François. East African hydroclimate variability and its interactions with the Indian Ocean over the last millennium.

Degree: 2016, Université Catholique de Louvain

URL: http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/182156

►

The East African rainfall is characterized by a strong interannual variability, currently superimposed on a (multi-)decadal drying trend. While observations collected over the last decades… (more)

▼

The East African rainfall is characterized by a strong interannual variability, currently superimposed on a (multi-)decadal drying trend. While observations collected over the last decades show that the East African rainfall correlates positively with the western Indian Ocean sea-surface temperatures and negatively with the eastern Indian Ocean sea-surface temperatures, the physical processes involved and the stability of those teleconnections over time are not well known. Hence, this thesis aims to improve understanding of how sea-surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean are linked to the East African rainfall variability at the interannual to the multi-decadal time scale. This is achieved through the analysis of the simulations performed by several climate models. Various complementary methodologies are used in order to minimize the potential impact of climate models biases on our results. Based on model-data comparison, we suggest that the changes in East African hydroclimate and their link to the Indian Ocean sea-surface temperature are driven at the interannual time scale by natural variability rather by external forcings over the last millennium. Using a data assimilation scheme, we demonstrate that the observed covariance between the East African rainfall and the Indian Ocean sea-surface temperatures has the potential to improve the regional to large-scale reconstructions of both variables, although biases in the physics of current climate models prevent obtaining such skillful reconstructions. Sensitivity experiments with the climate model EC-EARTH show that the Indian Ocean surface is indeed an important driver for the East African rainfall variability at the interannual time scale, through its influence on the atmospheric circulation.

(SC - Sciences) – UCL, 2016

Advisors/Committee Members: UCL - SST/ELI/ELIC - Earth & Climate, UCL - Faculté des Sciences, Goosse, Hugues, De Keersmaecker, Marie-Laurence, Fichefet, Thierry, Jungclaus, Johann, Van Oost, Kristof, Verschuren, Dirk.

Subjects/Keywords: East Africa; Hydroclimate; Climate models; Last millennium

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APA (6^th Edition):

Klein, F. (2016). East African hydroclimate variability and its interactions with the Indian Ocean over the last millennium. (Thesis). Université Catholique de Louvain. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/182156

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Chicago Manual of Style (16^th Edition):

Klein, François. “East African hydroclimate variability and its interactions with the Indian Ocean over the last millennium.” 2016. Thesis, Université Catholique de Louvain. Accessed December 16, 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/182156.

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

MLA Handbook (7^th Edition):

Klein, François. “East African hydroclimate variability and its interactions with the Indian Ocean over the last millennium.” 2016. Web. 16 Dec 2019.

Vancouver:

Klein F. East African hydroclimate variability and its interactions with the Indian Ocean over the last millennium. [Internet] [Thesis]. Université Catholique de Louvain; 2016. [cited 2019 Dec 16]. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/182156.

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Council of Science Editors:

Klein F. East African hydroclimate variability and its interactions with the Indian Ocean over the last millennium. [Thesis]. Université Catholique de Louvain; 2016. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/182156

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Utah State University

14. Matthews-Pennanen, Neil. Assessment of Potential Changes in Crop Yields in the Central United States Under Climate Change Regimes.

Degree: MS, Environment and Society, 2018, Utah State University

URL: https://digitalcommons.usu.edu/etd/7017

► Climate change is one of the great challenges facing agriculture in the 21^st century. The goal of this study was to produce projections of… (more)

▼ Climate change is one of the great challenges facing agriculture in the 21^st century. The goal of this study was to produce projections of crop yields for the central United States in the 2030s, 2060s, and 2090s based on the relationship between weather and yield from historical crop yields from 1980 to 2010. These projections were made across 16 states in the US, from Louisiana in the south to Minnesota in the north. They include projections for maize, soybeans, cotton, spring wheat, and winter wheat. Simulated weather variables based on three climate scenarios were used to project future crop yields. In addition, factors of soil characteristics, topography, and fertilizer application were used in the crop production models. Two technology scenarios were used: one simulating a future in which crop technology continues to improve and the other a future in which crop technology remains similar to where it is today. Results showed future crop yields to be responsive to both the different climate scenarios and the different technology scenarios. The effects of a changing climate regime on crop yields varied both geographically throughout the study area and from crop to crop. One broad geographic trend was greater potential for crop yield losses in the south and greater potential for gains in the north. Whether or not new technologies enable crop yields to continue to increase as the climate becomes less favorable is a major factor in agricultural production in the coming century. Results of this study indicate the degree to which society relies on these new technologies will be largely dependent on the degree of the warming that occurs. Continued research into the potential negative impacts of climate change on the current crop system in the United States is needed to mitigate the widespread losses in crop productivity that could result. In addition to study of negative impacts, study should be undertaken with an interest to determine any potential new opportunities for crop development with the onset of higher temperatures as a result of climate change. Studies like this one with a broad geographic range should be complemented by studies of narrower scope that can manipulate climatic variables under controlled conditions. Investment into these types of agricultural studies will give the agricultural sector in the United States greater tools with which they can mitigate the disruptive effects of a changing climate. Advisors/Committee Members: Christopher Lant, Emily Burchfield, Justin Schoof, ;.

Subjects/Keywords: Climate; Agriculture; Crops; Projections; Statistical Models; Geography

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APA (6^th Edition):

Matthews-Pennanen, N. (2018). Assessment of Potential Changes in Crop Yields in the Central United States Under Climate Change Regimes. (Masters Thesis). Utah State University. Retrieved from https://digitalcommons.usu.edu/etd/7017

Chicago Manual of Style (16^th Edition):

Matthews-Pennanen, Neil. “Assessment of Potential Changes in Crop Yields in the Central United States Under Climate Change Regimes.” 2018. Masters Thesis, Utah State University. Accessed December 16, 2019. https://digitalcommons.usu.edu/etd/7017.

MLA Handbook (7^th Edition):

Matthews-Pennanen, Neil. “Assessment of Potential Changes in Crop Yields in the Central United States Under Climate Change Regimes.” 2018. Web. 16 Dec 2019.

Vancouver:

Matthews-Pennanen N. Assessment of Potential Changes in Crop Yields in the Central United States Under Climate Change Regimes. [Internet] [Masters thesis]. Utah State University; 2018. [cited 2019 Dec 16]. Available from: https://digitalcommons.usu.edu/etd/7017.

Council of Science Editors:

Matthews-Pennanen N. Assessment of Potential Changes in Crop Yields in the Central United States Under Climate Change Regimes. [Masters Thesis]. Utah State University; 2018. Available from: https://digitalcommons.usu.edu/etd/7017

Rutgers University

15. Niznik, Matthew J., 1988-. Synoptic timescale variability and tropical-extratropical interaction along the south pacific convergence zone in climate model simulations.

Degree: PhD, Atmospheric Science, 2015, Rutgers University

URL: https://rucore.libraries.rutgers.edu/rutgers-lib/47489/

►

The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) is simulated as too zonal a feature in current generation climate models, including those in Phase 5 of the… (more)

▼

The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) is simulated as too zonal a feature in current generation climate models, including those in Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). On synoptic timescales, the SPCZ structure is controlled both by the amount of low-level inflow from the relatively dry southeastern Pacific as well as the tropical-extratropical interaction between transient synoptic systems and the mean background state. However, the fidelity with which CMIP5 models are capable of simulating these interactions has not been previously examined. Building on the analysis of observed SPCZ-region synoptic scale variability by Lintner and Neelin (2008), composite analysis of two reanalyses and 17 CMIP5 models reveals both individual models and their ensemble mean capture patterns of wind, specific humidity, and precipitation anomalies consistent with reanalysis and observational results. To further explore the difference between weak- and strong-inflow conditions, both are instantaneously imposed in an ensemble of experiments using the Quasi-equilibrium Tropical Circulation Model 2 (QTCM2). While imposed circulation anomalies lead to observed moisture and precipitation anomalies, imposed moisture anomalies manifest a weak circulation anomaly. Thus, it appears more likely that the initiation of SPCZ shifts is dynamic in nature. Analysis of synoptic variability in the simulated subtropical SPCZ reveals that the basic mechanism of tropical-extratropical interaction is generally well simulated, with storms approaching the SPCZ along comparable trajectories to observations. However, there is a broad spread in mean precipitation and its variability across the CMIP5 ensemble. The region of mean negative zonal stretching deformation or “storm graveyard” in the upper troposphere is displaced in CMIP5 models to the northeast of its position in reanalysis data, albeit with pronounced (≈25°) inter-model longitudinal spread; SPCZ precipitation is similarly displaced and models with stronger storm graveyards show higher precipitation variability. Overall, these results further confirm that SPCZ errors are primarily related to a biased background state. Additionally, SPCZs simulated by CMIP5 models are not simply too zonal; rather, in models the subtropical SPCZ manifests a diagonal tilt similar to observations while SST biases force an overly zonal tropical SPCZ, resulting in a more discontinuous SPCZ than observed.

Advisors/Committee Members: Lintner, Benjamin R. (chair), Broccoli, Anthony J. (internal member), Miller, James R. (internal member), Matthews, Adrian J. (outside member), Widlansky, Matthew J. (outside member).

Subjects/Keywords: Climatology – Mathematical models; Climate – South Pacific Ocean

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APA (6^th Edition):

Niznik, Matthew J., 1. (2015). Synoptic timescale variability and tropical-extratropical interaction along the south pacific convergence zone in climate model simulations. (Doctoral Dissertation). Rutgers University. Retrieved from https://rucore.libraries.rutgers.edu/rutgers-lib/47489/

Chicago Manual of Style (16^th Edition):

Niznik, Matthew J., 1988-. “Synoptic timescale variability and tropical-extratropical interaction along the south pacific convergence zone in climate model simulations.” 2015. Doctoral Dissertation, Rutgers University. Accessed December 16, 2019. https://rucore.libraries.rutgers.edu/rutgers-lib/47489/.

MLA Handbook (7^th Edition):

Niznik, Matthew J., 1988-. “Synoptic timescale variability and tropical-extratropical interaction along the south pacific convergence zone in climate model simulations.” 2015. Web. 16 Dec 2019.

Vancouver:

Niznik, Matthew J. 1. Synoptic timescale variability and tropical-extratropical interaction along the south pacific convergence zone in climate model simulations. [Internet] [Doctoral dissertation]. Rutgers University; 2015. [cited 2019 Dec 16]. Available from: https://rucore.libraries.rutgers.edu/rutgers-lib/47489/.

Council of Science Editors:

Niznik, Matthew J. 1. Synoptic timescale variability and tropical-extratropical interaction along the south pacific convergence zone in climate model simulations. [Doctoral Dissertation]. Rutgers University; 2015. Available from: https://rucore.libraries.rutgers.edu/rutgers-lib/47489/

UCLA

16. Langenbrunner, Baird. Quantifying uncertainty in precipitation climatology, twenty-first century change, and teleconnections in global climate models.

Degree: Atmospheric & Oceanic Sciences, 2015, UCLA

URL: http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/3f9708hq

► The ability of global climate models (GCMs) to simulate climatological precipitation and other features of the hydrological cycle accurately is acceptable by some metrics, especially… (more)

▼ The ability of global climate models (GCMs) to simulate climatological precipitation and other features of the hydrological cycle accurately is acceptable by some metrics, especially at large scales. Regionally, however, there can be substantial discrepancy in a multi-model ensemble, both in the annual or seasonal historical precipitation climatology as well as in end-of-century changes. Characterizing this intermodel spread and identifying leading uncertainty patterns and underlying physical pathways is important in constraining climatological biases and projections of future change. This dissertation looks at three aspects of precipitation uncertainty in ensembles.First, El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections are analyzed in an atmosphere-only ensemble to gauge the ability of atmospheric components of GCMs to reproduce ENSO precipitation teleconnections. This serves as a test for how well models simulate the atmospheric response to sea surface temperature forcing in the immediate ENSO vicinity, as well as how accurately they reproduce the large-scale tropical-to-midlatitude dynamics leading to teleconnected precipitation. While individual models have difficulty in simulating the exact spatial pattern of teleconnections, they demonstrate skill in regional amplitude measures and sign agreement of the precipitation teleconnections at the grid point level, which lends value to the use of such measures in global warming projections.Next, objective spatial analysis techniques are applied to a fully-coupled GCM ensemble in order to visualize patterns of uncertainty in end-of-century precipitation changes and in the historical climatology. Global patterns are considered first, with the tropics exerting a clear dominance in intermodel spread, mainly within zones of deep convection or along convective margins. Regional domains are considered second, with a focus on the wintertime midlatitude Pacific storm track. A key region of end-of-century precipitation change uncertainty is identified at the terminus of the storm track, and large-scale circulation processes related to model differences in upper-level jet increases are found to play a role. These results help pinpoint a source of intermodel spread in projected precipitation changes along the North American west coast, especially for the Southern California region.Last, an existing perturbed physics ensemble is examined in order to understand the parameter sensitivity of climatological precipitation and other fields. This ensemble consists of integrations in which four parameters in the deep convection scheme were systematically varied. Models of parameter dependence are constructed for precipitation, and this process – termed metamodeling – is a computationally cheap alternative to brute-force sampling of parameter space in the GCM. A quadratic metamodel performs generally well but fails to capture sensitive regions of high nonlinearity for certain parameter ranges. A second metamodel is constructed by combining an approach from the engineering…

Subjects/Keywords: Atmospheric sciences; Climate change; Climate change; CMIP5; Global climate models; Hydrological cycle; Model uncertainty; Precipitation

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APA (6^th Edition):

Langenbrunner, B. (2015). Quantifying uncertainty in precipitation climatology, twenty-first century change, and teleconnections in global climate models. (Thesis). UCLA. Retrieved from http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/3f9708hq

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Chicago Manual of Style (16^th Edition):

Langenbrunner, Baird. “Quantifying uncertainty in precipitation climatology, twenty-first century change, and teleconnections in global climate models.” 2015. Thesis, UCLA. Accessed December 16, 2019. http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/3f9708hq.

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

MLA Handbook (7^th Edition):

Langenbrunner, Baird. “Quantifying uncertainty in precipitation climatology, twenty-first century change, and teleconnections in global climate models.” 2015. Web. 16 Dec 2019.

Vancouver:

Langenbrunner B. Quantifying uncertainty in precipitation climatology, twenty-first century change, and teleconnections in global climate models. [Internet] [Thesis]. UCLA; 2015. [cited 2019 Dec 16]. Available from: http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/3f9708hq.

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Council of Science Editors:

Langenbrunner B. Quantifying uncertainty in precipitation climatology, twenty-first century change, and teleconnections in global climate models. [Thesis]. UCLA; 2015. Available from: http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/3f9708hq

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

University of Washington

17. Tetreault-Pinard, Etienne. Linking Soil Moisture and Summertime Surface Temperature Variability.

Degree: 2014, University of Washington

URL: http://hdl.handle.net/1773/25089

► Summertime temperature variability in the late 20th century simulations of the CMIP3 and CMIP5 climate models used in the IPCC assessments is much greater than… (more)

▼ Summertime temperature variability in the late 20th century simulations of the CMIP3 and CMIP5 climate models used in the IPCC assessments is much greater than the observed temperature variability – particularly in the continental mid-latitudes. In recent years, interactions between landand atmosphere have been shown through climate model simulations to contribute significantly to temperature variability in summer, mainly via processes involving soil moisture. However, theoretical understanding of the mechanisms linking soil moisture and surface temperature variability is incomplete. In this study, we investigate these links using a simple model of land-atmosphere interactions. We derive a simplified expression for the surface temperature variance by coupling the surface energy and the soil moisture budgets via parameterizations of the dominant processes acting at the land surface interface. We identify two regimes of surface temperature variability, distinguishing whether soil moisture-related processes at the land-surface interface amplify or damp surface temperature variability caused by fluctuations in radiative forcing. These two regimes are distinguished by differences in the processes that determine evapotranspiration which, in turn, are governed by the summertime mean soil moisture content. We found that temperature variability errors in two CMIP3 GCMs are mostly due to an incorrect geographical placement of the boundary separating the two temperature variability regimes in the GCMs and to errors in the variance of the radiation forcing and precipitation forcing. The changes in temperature variability that are projected for the 21st century are consistent with our findings: regions that display the largest increase in temperature variability are those that experience a sufficient reduction of soil moisture to shift the soil-moisture related processes at the land-surface interface from the damped regime to the amplified regime. Advisors/Committee Members: Battisti, David S. (advisor).

Subjects/Keywords: Climate Change; Climate models; Climate variability; Land-atmosphere interactions; Soil moisture; Atmospheric sciences; atmospheric sciences

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APA (6^th Edition):

Tetreault-Pinard, E. (2014). Linking Soil Moisture and Summertime Surface Temperature Variability. (Thesis). University of Washington. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/1773/25089

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Chicago Manual of Style (16^th Edition):

Tetreault-Pinard, Etienne. “Linking Soil Moisture and Summertime Surface Temperature Variability.” 2014. Thesis, University of Washington. Accessed December 16, 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/1773/25089.

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

MLA Handbook (7^th Edition):

Tetreault-Pinard, Etienne. “Linking Soil Moisture and Summertime Surface Temperature Variability.” 2014. Web. 16 Dec 2019.

Vancouver:

Tetreault-Pinard E. Linking Soil Moisture and Summertime Surface Temperature Variability. [Internet] [Thesis]. University of Washington; 2014. [cited 2019 Dec 16]. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/1773/25089.

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Council of Science Editors:

Tetreault-Pinard E. Linking Soil Moisture and Summertime Surface Temperature Variability. [Thesis]. University of Washington; 2014. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/1773/25089

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

University of Washington

18. Pendergrass, Angeline Greene. The atmospheric energy constraint on precipitation change.

Degree: PhD, 2014, University of Washington

URL: http://hdl.handle.net/1773/25090

► How does rain change with global warming? This dissertation investigates the rate of global-mean precipitation increase, changes in atmospheric radiative cooling, and the changes in… (more)

▼ How does rain change with global warming? This dissertation investigates the rate of global-mean precipitation increase, changes in atmospheric radiative cooling, and the changes in frequency and intensity of rain events. We examine changes in global-mean precipitation and atmospheric radiative cooling in comprehensive climate model simulations. In a realistic forcing scenario including both greenhouse gases and aerosols, clear-sky absorption of shortwave radiation is correlated with the rate of global-mean precipitation increase. In a scenario forced by increasing carbon dioxide alone, we make radiative transfer calculations to separate the responses of clear-sky atmospheric radiative cooling due to warming, moistening, and the carbon dioxide itself. Clear-sky atmospheric radiative cooling increases in response to vertically uniform warming and constant relative humidity moistening of the atmosphere. These increases are partially offset by decreases due to the direct radiative effects of carbon dioxide and black carbon. Global-mean precipitation increases by the same rate as the change in clear-sky atmospheric radiative cooling. Changes in the frequency of rain and the rate at which it falls constitute the increase in global-mean precipitation. We develop a methodology for characterizing the frequency and amount of rainfall as functions of the rain rate. We define two modes of response, one in which the distribution of rainfall increases in equal fraction at all rain rates (the increase mode) and one in which the rainfall shifts to higher or lower rain rates without a change in mean rainfall (the shift mode). We apply this description of change to simulations of global warming in climate models. We also calculate the response of the tropical rainfall distribution to ENSO phases in models and observations and apply the increase and shift modes. In addition to the increase and shift modes of change, some models show a substantial increase in rainfall at the highest rain rates. In some models this extreme mode can be shown to be associated with increases in grid-scale precipitation. Advisors/Committee Members: Hartmann, Dennis L (advisor).

Subjects/Keywords: climate change; climate models; precipitation; radiative transfer; Atmospheric sciences; Climate change; Hydrologic sciences; atmospheric sciences

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APA (6^th Edition):

Pendergrass, A. G. (2014). The atmospheric energy constraint on precipitation change. (Doctoral Dissertation). University of Washington. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/1773/25090

Chicago Manual of Style (16^th Edition):

Pendergrass, Angeline Greene. “The atmospheric energy constraint on precipitation change.” 2014. Doctoral Dissertation, University of Washington. Accessed December 16, 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/1773/25090.

MLA Handbook (7^th Edition):

Pendergrass, Angeline Greene. “The atmospheric energy constraint on precipitation change.” 2014. Web. 16 Dec 2019.

Vancouver:

Pendergrass AG. The atmospheric energy constraint on precipitation change. [Internet] [Doctoral dissertation]. University of Washington; 2014. [cited 2019 Dec 16]. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/1773/25090.

Council of Science Editors:

Pendergrass AG. The atmospheric energy constraint on precipitation change. [Doctoral Dissertation]. University of Washington; 2014. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/1773/25090

University of Florida

19. Muir, Carly. Is Precipitation Driven by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Influencing Land Use and Land Cover in Florida.

Degree: 2013, University of Florida

URL: http://ufdc.ufl.edu/AA00019338

► Climatic variability and anthropogenic impacts have caused Florida’s precipitation to undergo changes in the past century. A recent study of satellite imagery of Florida’s vegetation… (more)

Subjects/Keywords: Climate; Climate change; Climate models; Climatology; Land cover; Land use; Precipitation; Rain; Summer; Winter

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APA · Chicago · MLA · Vancouver · CSE | Export to Zotero / EndNote / Reference Manager

APA (6^th Edition):

Muir, C. (2013). Is Precipitation Driven by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Influencing Land Use and Land Cover in Florida. (Thesis). University of Florida. Retrieved from http://ufdc.ufl.edu/AA00019338

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Chicago Manual of Style (16^th Edition):

Muir, Carly. “Is Precipitation Driven by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Influencing Land Use and Land Cover in Florida.” 2013. Thesis, University of Florida. Accessed December 16, 2019. http://ufdc.ufl.edu/AA00019338.

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

MLA Handbook (7^th Edition):

Muir, Carly. “Is Precipitation Driven by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Influencing Land Use and Land Cover in Florida.” 2013. Web. 16 Dec 2019.

Vancouver:

Muir C. Is Precipitation Driven by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Influencing Land Use and Land Cover in Florida. [Internet] [Thesis]. University of Florida; 2013. [cited 2019 Dec 16]. Available from: http://ufdc.ufl.edu/AA00019338.

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Council of Science Editors:

Muir C. Is Precipitation Driven by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Influencing Land Use and Land Cover in Florida. [Thesis]. University of Florida; 2013. Available from: http://ufdc.ufl.edu/AA00019338

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Penn State University

20. Warner, Ashley Elizabeth. Statistical Skill in the Emulation of Climate Models.

Degree: MS, Meteorology, 2014, Penn State University

URL: https://etda.libraries.psu.edu/catalog/22840

► A climate model of low complexity can be used to emulate the performance of one with higher complexity by identifying the parameters for each model… (more)

Subjects/Keywords: climate models; climate sensitivity; differential evolution; markov chain monte carlo

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APA (6^th Edition):

Warner, A. E. (2014). Statistical Skill in the Emulation of Climate Models. (Masters Thesis). Penn State University. Retrieved from https://etda.libraries.psu.edu/catalog/22840

Chicago Manual of Style (16^th Edition):

Warner, Ashley Elizabeth. “Statistical Skill in the Emulation of Climate Models.” 2014. Masters Thesis, Penn State University. Accessed December 16, 2019. https://etda.libraries.psu.edu/catalog/22840.

MLA Handbook (7^th Edition):

Warner, Ashley Elizabeth. “Statistical Skill in the Emulation of Climate Models.” 2014. Web. 16 Dec 2019.

Vancouver:

Warner AE. Statistical Skill in the Emulation of Climate Models. [Internet] [Masters thesis]. Penn State University; 2014. [cited 2019 Dec 16]. Available from: https://etda.libraries.psu.edu/catalog/22840.

Council of Science Editors:

Warner AE. Statistical Skill in the Emulation of Climate Models. [Masters Thesis]. Penn State University; 2014. Available from: https://etda.libraries.psu.edu/catalog/22840

University of Manchester

21. Heaphy, Liam James. Modelling and Translating Future Urban Climate for Policy.

Degree: 2014, University of Manchester

URL: http://www.manchester.ac.uk/escholar/uk-ac-man-scw:230607a

► This thesis looks at the practice of climate modelling at the urban scale in relation to projections of future climate. It responds to the question… (more)

▼ This thesis looks at the practice of climate modelling at the urban scale in relation to projections of future climate. It responds to the question of how climate models perform in a policy context, and how these models are translated in order to have agency at the urban scale. It considers the means and circumstances through which models are constructed to selectively represent urban realities and potential realities in order to explore and reshape the built environment in response to a changing climate.This thesis is concerned with an interdisciplinary area of research and practice, while at the same time it is based on methodologies originating in science and technology studies which were later applied to architecture and planning, geography, and urban studies. Fieldwork consisted of participant-observation and interviews with three groups of practitioners: firstly, climate impacts modellers forming part of the Adaptation and Resilience in a Changing Climate (ARCC) programme; secondly, planners and adaptation policymakers in the cities of Manchester and London; and thirdly, boundary organisations such as the UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP). Project and climate policy material pertinent to these projects and the case study cities were also analysed in tandem. Of particular interest was the common space shared to researchers and stakeholders where modelling results were explained, contextualised, and interrogated for policy-relevant results. This took the form of stakeholder meetings in which the limits of the models in relation to policy demands could be articulated and mediated.In considering the agency of models in relation to uncertainties, it was found that although generated in a context of applied science, models had a limited effect on policy. As such, the salience of urban climatic risk-based assessment for urban planning is restrained, because it presupposes a quantitative understanding of climate impacts that is only slowly forming due to societal and governmental pressures. This can be related both to the nature of models as sites of exploration and experimentation, and to the distribution of expertise in the climate adaptation community. Although both the research and policy communities operate partly in a common space, models and their associated tools operate at a level of sophistication that policy-makers have difficulty comprehending and integrating into planning policy beyond the level of simple guidance and messages. Adaptation in practice is constrained by a limited understanding of climate uncertainties and urban climatology, evident through the present emphasis on catch-all solutions like green infrastructure and win-win solutions rather than the empowerment of actors and a corresponding distribution of adequate resources. An analysis is provided on the means by which models and maps can shape climate adaptation at scales relevant for cities, based on considerations of how models gain agency through forms of encoded expertise like maps and the types of interaction between science and… Advisors/Committee Members: GUY, SIMON SC, Guy, Simon, Yaneva, Albena.

Subjects/Keywords: climate models; planning; climate adaptation; built environment; knowledge infrastructure

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APA · Chicago · MLA · Vancouver · CSE | Export to Zotero / EndNote / Reference Manager

APA (6^th Edition):

Heaphy, L. J. (2014). Modelling and Translating Future Urban Climate for Policy. (Doctoral Dissertation). University of Manchester. Retrieved from http://www.manchester.ac.uk/escholar/uk-ac-man-scw:230607a

Chicago Manual of Style (16^th Edition):

Heaphy, Liam James. “Modelling and Translating Future Urban Climate for Policy.” 2014. Doctoral Dissertation, University of Manchester. Accessed December 16, 2019. http://www.manchester.ac.uk/escholar/uk-ac-man-scw:230607a.

MLA Handbook (7^th Edition):

Heaphy, Liam James. “Modelling and Translating Future Urban Climate for Policy.” 2014. Web. 16 Dec 2019.

Vancouver:

Heaphy LJ. Modelling and Translating Future Urban Climate for Policy. [Internet] [Doctoral dissertation]. University of Manchester; 2014. [cited 2019 Dec 16]. Available from: http://www.manchester.ac.uk/escholar/uk-ac-man-scw:230607a.

Council of Science Editors:

Heaphy LJ. Modelling and Translating Future Urban Climate for Policy. [Doctoral Dissertation]. University of Manchester; 2014. Available from: http://www.manchester.ac.uk/escholar/uk-ac-man-scw:230607a

Iowa State University

22. Kawazoe, Sho. Evaluation of regional, very heavy precipitation events in the upper Mississippi region using climate model ensembles.

Degree: 2016, Iowa State University

URL: https://lib.dr.iastate.edu/etd/15734

► Projected increases in temperature and moisture in future climates promote a more favorable environment for very heavy/extreme precipitation events. Although precipitation events at the highest… (more)

▼ Projected increases in temperature and moisture in future climates promote a more favorable environment for very heavy/extreme precipitation events. Although precipitation events at the highest intensities have increased in the last ~50 years and are projected to continue into the future, climate models can have difficulty replicating very heavy events seen in observations, often due to coarse horizontal and vertical resolutions. Global climate models (GCMs) with horizontal resolution spanning usually around 100~300km may be able to replicate winter storms, which have larger spatial characteristics, but often fail to replicate summer events, as Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) dominate the precipitation characteristics in the central U.S. MCSs often occur at a much small spatial scale than winter storms. High resolution (~50km to finer horizontal resolution) regional climate models (RCMs) may provide a better rendition of MCSs. Climate models provide valuable information to the scientific community, as evidenced by an abundance of peer-reviewed literature evaluating extreme events in climate simulations. Continued improvement in the structure of climate models has produced results more consistent with observations. GCMs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project – Phase 5 (CMIP5), and RCMs from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) are used in this study. The domain examined is an upper Mississippi region. In Chapter 2, CMIP5 models are compared with observations during the winter (December-February) months. The analysis reveals that CMIP5 models agree fairly well observations, though coarser resolution GCMs produce a smoother spatial distribution of heavy precipitation. In the remaining studies, NARCCAP RCMs are examined along with observations during the summer months (June – August). Chapter 3 examines the contemporary climate. Results show that while most models produce credible simulations of widespread very heavy events with respect to observations, biases are present for particular simulations, and is highlighted in this study. In Chapter 4, climate change of summertime widespread very heavy precipitation events is examined. Most models project a decrease in average precipitation but an increase in intensity and frequency of very heavy precipitation. Areas of projected precipitation increase occur in areas where conditions will become more favorable for convective storm development.

Subjects/Keywords: Climate Change; Climate Models; Ensemble; Extremes; Precipitation; Upper Mississippi; Meteorology

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APA · Chicago · MLA · Vancouver · CSE | Export to Zotero / EndNote / Reference Manager

APA (6^th Edition):

Kawazoe, S. (2016). Evaluation of regional, very heavy precipitation events in the upper Mississippi region using climate model ensembles. (Thesis). Iowa State University. Retrieved from https://lib.dr.iastate.edu/etd/15734

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Chicago Manual of Style (16^th Edition):

Kawazoe, Sho. “Evaluation of regional, very heavy precipitation events in the upper Mississippi region using climate model ensembles.” 2016. Thesis, Iowa State University. Accessed December 16, 2019. https://lib.dr.iastate.edu/etd/15734.

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

MLA Handbook (7^th Edition):

Kawazoe, Sho. “Evaluation of regional, very heavy precipitation events in the upper Mississippi region using climate model ensembles.” 2016. Web. 16 Dec 2019.

Vancouver:

Kawazoe S. Evaluation of regional, very heavy precipitation events in the upper Mississippi region using climate model ensembles. [Internet] [Thesis]. Iowa State University; 2016. [cited 2019 Dec 16]. Available from: https://lib.dr.iastate.edu/etd/15734.

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Council of Science Editors:

Kawazoe S. Evaluation of regional, very heavy precipitation events in the upper Mississippi region using climate model ensembles. [Thesis]. Iowa State University; 2016. Available from: https://lib.dr.iastate.edu/etd/15734

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

University of Saskatchewan

23. Scaff Fuenzalida, Maria Lucia 1987-. Convective Precipitation over Complex Terrain, Current and Future Climate.

Degree: 2019, University of Saskatchewan

URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10388/12243

► Given the significance of climate models for assessing climate change impacts, and recent increases in their resolution, there is a need to understand strengths and… (more)

▼ Given the significance of climate models for assessing climate change impacts, and recent increases in their resolution, there is a need to understand strengths and weaknesses of climate models in reproducing key atmospheric processes, and to assess their performance using accurate ground-based observations. This thesis first investigates the inconsistencies in ground-based observations for cold environments, second, the role of ground-based observations for empirical model validation over complex terrain, and third, uses both observations and model output, to describe a mesoscale process associated with precipitation and their changes in a simulated future climate. Regional climate modelling in a convection-permitting configuration improves simulation of mesoscale systems in which convection initiates and develops, adding value to estimates of convective precipitation compared to models that rely on deep convective parameterization schemes. On the leeside of the Canadian Rocky Mountains in extratropical regions, convective precipitation is influenced by a strong longitudinal gradient of low-level moisture across the foothills. Known as the dryline, this gradient is the result of the convergence of moist air from the interior of the continent and the dry air from the subsidence on the lee side of the Rocky Mountains. The dryline plays a key role in initiating convective precipitation. To find robust answers to questions about a future transient climate, a better understanding is needed of the dryline’s relationship to the location and timing of convective initiation. This research has three objectives: 1) to critically quantify the systematic bias of precipitation measurements on two sides of the northern Canada-U.S. border since the two countries use different standard instrumentation to observe liquid and solid precipitation; 2) to study if a convection-permitting model can reproduce the warm season’s diurnal cycle of precipitation at a continental scale, and 3) to describe a mesoscale mechanism related to the initiation of convective precipitation in the Rocky Mountains vulnerable to climate change at the end of the century. Results show that a correction due to wind-undercatch in monthly solid precipitation is up to 31% during January in the Yukon, whereas across the border in Alaskan stations, it is up to 136%. This correction leads to a smaller and inverted horizontal precipitation gradient in the northern part of the border. In July, the correction for monthly liquid precipitation is around 20% in Alaska and 4% in the Yukon. This inconsistency has to be considered in any regional study using precipitation in cold and windy environments. The research to validate the precipitation diurnal cycle characteristics using a convection-permitting model, uses ground-based observations and a gridded product. Results show that the convection-permitting model can represent the main continental patterns and also represent the precipitation peak transitions from the afternoon to night on the leeside of the Rocky Mountains.… Advisors/Committee Members: Li, Yanping, Ireson, Andrew, Pomeroy, John, Wheater, Howard, Szeto, Kit.

Subjects/Keywords: Precipitation; Climate Change; Regional Climate Models; Convection Permitting Modeling; Convective precipitation

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APA · Chicago · MLA · Vancouver · CSE | Export to Zotero / EndNote / Reference Manager

APA (6^th Edition):

Scaff Fuenzalida, M. L. 1. (2019). Convective Precipitation over Complex Terrain, Current and Future Climate. (Thesis). University of Saskatchewan. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/10388/12243

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Chicago Manual of Style (16^th Edition):

Scaff Fuenzalida, Maria Lucia 1987-. “Convective Precipitation over Complex Terrain, Current and Future Climate.” 2019. Thesis, University of Saskatchewan. Accessed December 16, 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/10388/12243.

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

MLA Handbook (7^th Edition):

Scaff Fuenzalida, Maria Lucia 1987-. “Convective Precipitation over Complex Terrain, Current and Future Climate.” 2019. Web. 16 Dec 2019.

Vancouver:

Scaff Fuenzalida ML1. Convective Precipitation over Complex Terrain, Current and Future Climate. [Internet] [Thesis]. University of Saskatchewan; 2019. [cited 2019 Dec 16]. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/10388/12243.

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Council of Science Editors:

Scaff Fuenzalida ML1. Convective Precipitation over Complex Terrain, Current and Future Climate. [Thesis]. University of Saskatchewan; 2019. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/10388/12243

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

University of Saskatchewan

24. Scaff Fuenzalida, Maria Lucia 1987-. Convective Precipitation over Complex Terrain, Current and Future Climate.

Degree: 2019, University of Saskatchewan

URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10388/12249

► Given the significance of climate models for assessing climate change impacts, and recent increases in their resolution, there is a need to understand strengths and… (more)

▼ Given the significance of climate models for assessing climate change impacts, and recent increases in their resolution, there is a need to understand strengths and weaknesses of climate models in reproducing key atmospheric processes, and to assess their performance using accurate ground-based observations. This thesis first investigates the inconsistencies in ground-based observations for cold environments, second, the role of ground-based observations for empirical model validation over complex terrain, and third, uses both observations and model output, to describe a mesoscale process associated with precipitation and their changes in a simulated future climate. Regional climate modelling in a convection-permitting configuration improves simulation of mesoscale systems in which convection initiates and develops, adding value to estimates of convective precipitation compared to models that rely on deep convective parameterization schemes. On the leeside of the Canadian Rocky Mountains in extratropical regions, convective precipitation is influenced by a strong longitudinal gradient of low-level moisture across the foothills. Known as the dryline, this gradient is the result of the convergence of moist air from the interior of the continent and the dry air from the subsidence on the lee side of the Rocky Mountains. The dryline plays a key role in initiating convective precipitation. To find robust answers to questions about a future transient climate, a better understanding is needed of the dryline’s relationship to the location and timing of convective initiation. This research has three objectives: 1) to critically quantify the systematic bias of precipitation measurements on two sides of the northern Canada-U.S. border since the two countries use different standard instrumentation to observe liquid and solid precipitation; 2) to study if a convection-permitting model can reproduce the warm season’s diurnal cycle of precipitation at a continental scale, and 3) to describe a mesoscale mechanism related to the initiation of convective precipitation in the Rocky Mountains vulnerable to climate change at the end of the century. Results show that a correction due to wind-undercatch in monthly solid precipitation is up to 31% during January in the Yukon, whereas across the border in Alaskan stations, it is up to 136%. This correction leads to a smaller and inverted horizontal precipitation gradient in the northern part of the border. In July, the correction for monthly liquid precipitation is around 20% in Alaska and 4% in the Yukon. This inconsistency has to be considered in any regional study using precipitation in cold and windy environments. The research to validate the precipitation diurnal cycle characteristics using a convection-permitting model, uses ground-based observations and a gridded product. Results show that the convection-permitting model can represent the main continental patterns and also represent the precipitation peak transitions from the afternoon to night on the leeside of the Rocky Mountains.… Advisors/Committee Members: Li, Yanping, Ireson, Andrew, Pomeroy, John, Wheater, Howard, Szeto, Kit.

Subjects/Keywords: Precipitation; Climate Change; Regional Climate Models; Convection Permitting Modeling; Convective precipitation

Record Details Similar Records Cite « Share

❌

APA · Chicago · MLA · Vancouver · CSE | Export to Zotero / EndNote / Reference Manager

APA (6^th Edition):

Scaff Fuenzalida, M. L. 1. (2019). Convective Precipitation over Complex Terrain, Current and Future Climate. (Thesis). University of Saskatchewan. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/10388/12249

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Chicago Manual of Style (16^th Edition):

Scaff Fuenzalida, Maria Lucia 1987-. “Convective Precipitation over Complex Terrain, Current and Future Climate.” 2019. Thesis, University of Saskatchewan. Accessed December 16, 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/10388/12249.

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

MLA Handbook (7^th Edition):

Scaff Fuenzalida, Maria Lucia 1987-. “Convective Precipitation over Complex Terrain, Current and Future Climate.” 2019. Web. 16 Dec 2019.

Vancouver:

Scaff Fuenzalida ML1. Convective Precipitation over Complex Terrain, Current and Future Climate. [Internet] [Thesis]. University of Saskatchewan; 2019. [cited 2019 Dec 16]. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/10388/12249.

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Council of Science Editors:

Scaff Fuenzalida ML1. Convective Precipitation over Complex Terrain, Current and Future Climate. [Thesis]. University of Saskatchewan; 2019. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/10388/12249

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Colorado State University

25. McCrary, Rachel Rose. Seasonal, synoptic, and intraseasonal variability of the West African monsoon.

Degree: PhD, Atmospheric Science, 2007, Colorado State University

URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10217/79444

► The simulation of the West African monsoon is examined in two coupled general circulation models (CGCMs). The first model is the standard Community Climate System… (more)

▼ The simulation of the West African monsoon is examined in two coupled general circulation models (CGCMs). The first model is the standard Community Climate System Model (CCSM) which uses traditional parameterizations to represent convective processes. The second model is the superparameterized-CCSM (SP-CCSM), in which convective parameterizations have been replaced by embedding a two-dimensional cloud resolving model into each gridbox. Superparameterization is intended to improve simulation of the complex multiscale interactions that occur between the large-scale environment and clouds. Key features of West African climate are analyzed in both models including: the mean annual cycle of the monsoon, African easterly wave (AEW) activity and dynamics, and the intraseasonal modulation of precipitation. Adding superparameterization improves the position and intensity of the summer maximum in precipitation which is shifted from over the Gulf of Guinea in CCSM (not realistic), to over the continent in SP-CCSM which is in keeping with the observations. AEWs and their relationship with convection are also improved in the SP-CCSM: In the standard model, little to no easterly wave activity occurs over West Africa, and the relationship with convection is tenuous at best. SP-CCSM on the other hand produces strong AEWs over the region that exhibit similar horizontal and vertical structures to observations. AEWs in SP-CCSM are strongly coupled to convection, more so than is supported by observations. An examination of the energetics of the simulated AEWs suggests that convection drives the generation and propagation the waves in SP- CCSM. Consistent with observations, intraseasonal variations in West African precipitation in SP-CCSM appear to be linked to variations in convection in the Indo-Pacific region corresponding with the MJO and the Indian monsoon. Because of these physically-realistic relationships, SP-CCSM has potential to deepen our understanding of the teleconnections between the MJO and West Africa, helping to improve seasonal rainfall forecasts. Advisors/Committee Members: Randall, David A. (advisor), Denning, A. Scott (committee member), van den Heever, Susan C. (committee member), Betsill, Michele (committee member).

Subjects/Keywords: Africa; monsoon; climate models; climate

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APA (6^th Edition):

McCrary, R. R. (2007). Seasonal, synoptic, and intraseasonal variability of the West African monsoon. (Doctoral Dissertation). Colorado State University. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/10217/79444

Chicago Manual of Style (16^th Edition):

McCrary, Rachel Rose. “Seasonal, synoptic, and intraseasonal variability of the West African monsoon.” 2007. Doctoral Dissertation, Colorado State University. Accessed December 16, 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/10217/79444.

MLA Handbook (7^th Edition):

McCrary, Rachel Rose. “Seasonal, synoptic, and intraseasonal variability of the West African monsoon.” 2007. Web. 16 Dec 2019.

Vancouver:

McCrary RR. Seasonal, synoptic, and intraseasonal variability of the West African monsoon. [Internet] [Doctoral dissertation]. Colorado State University; 2007. [cited 2019 Dec 16]. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/10217/79444.

Council of Science Editors:

McCrary RR. Seasonal, synoptic, and intraseasonal variability of the West African monsoon. [Doctoral Dissertation]. Colorado State University; 2007. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/10217/79444

Penn State University

26. Libardoni, Alex. Improving Constraints on Climate System Properties with Additional Data and New Methods.

Degree: 2017, Penn State University

URL: https://etda.libraries.psu.edu/catalog/12580agl127

► Future climate change depends on properties of the climate system and the externalforcing factors that drive the global energy budget. Among those properties are climatesensitivity,… (more)

▼ Future climate change depends on properties of the climate system and the externalforcing factors that drive the global energy budget. Among those properties are climatesensitivity, the rate that heat is mixed into the deep ocean, and the aerosol forcing onthe planet. In this dissertation, we use the newly updated Massachusetts Institute ofTechnology Earth System Model (MESM) to derive the joint probability distributionfunction (PDF) for model parameters that represent the aforementioned climate systemproperties. Climate sensitivity (ECS) in the model is set through an adjustment to thecloud feedback parameter. The vertical diffusion coefficient, Kv, represents the mixingof heat into the deep ocean by all mixing processes. The net anthropogenic aerosolforcing parameter, Faer, estimates the contribution of aerosol cooling to the global energybudget. Using an 1800-member ensemble of MESM runs where the model parametershave been systematically varied, we derive PDFs for the model parameters by comparingthe model output against historical observations of surface temperature and global meanocean heat content. In particular, we answer four main research questions: (1) How arethe parameter PDFs derived using the MESM ensemble different from those using aprevious version of the model?, (2) How do the estimates change when recent surfacetemperature and ocean heat content observations are included in the model diagnosticsused to evaluate model performance?, (3) How does internal climate variability lead touncertainty in the parameter estimates?, and (4) What impact do the changes in PDFshave on estimates of future warming, namely estimates of transient climate response(TCR)? We show that estimates of climate sensitivity increase and the aerosol forcing isless negative when using MESM. These shifts are the result of a new forcing suite used todrive the model. By extending the length of the model diagnostics one decade at a time,we show that recent temperature patterns impact our estimates of the climate systemproperties. The continued rise in surface temperature leads to higher values of ECS,while the increased rate of heat storage in the ocean lowers estimates of ECS and leadsto higher estimates of Kv. We show that the parameter distributions are sensitive to theinternal variability in the climate system and that using a single variability estimate canlead to PDFs that are too narrow. Throughout the dissertation, we show that estimates of transient climate response are correlated with ECS and Kv. Namely, higher ECSand weaker Kv lead to higher values of TCR. When considering all of these factors, wearrive at our best estimate for the climate system properties. We estimate the 90-percentconfidence interval for climate sensitivity to be 2.7 to 5.4 C with a mode of 3.5 C. Ourestimate for the square root of Kv is 1.4 to 4.8 cm s1/2 with a mode of 2.1 cm s1/2. Faer is estimated to be between -0.4 and -0.04 Wm2 with a mode of -0.25 Wm2. Lastly, we estimate TCR to be between 1.4 and 2.1 C with a mode of 1.8 C. Advisors/Committee Members: Chris Eliot Forest, Dissertation Advisor.

Subjects/Keywords: Climate sensitivity; Ocean diffusivity; Aerosol forcing; Transient climate response; Climate models; Climate change; Internal climate variability; Climate model evaluation; Climate model calibration; Uncertainty quantification; Radial basis functions; Climate sensitivity; Ocean diffusivity; Aerosol forcing; Transient climate response; Climate models; Climate change; Internal climate variability; Climate model evaluation; Climate model calibration; Uncertainty quantification; Radial basis functions

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APA · Chicago · MLA · Vancouver · CSE | Export to Zotero / EndNote / Reference Manager

APA (6^th Edition):

Libardoni, A. (2017). Improving Constraints on Climate System Properties with Additional Data and New Methods. (Thesis). Penn State University. Retrieved from https://etda.libraries.psu.edu/catalog/12580agl127

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Chicago Manual of Style (16^th Edition):

Libardoni, Alex. “Improving Constraints on Climate System Properties with Additional Data and New Methods.” 2017. Thesis, Penn State University. Accessed December 16, 2019. https://etda.libraries.psu.edu/catalog/12580agl127.

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

MLA Handbook (7^th Edition):

Libardoni, Alex. “Improving Constraints on Climate System Properties with Additional Data and New Methods.” 2017. Web. 16 Dec 2019.

Vancouver:

Libardoni A. Improving Constraints on Climate System Properties with Additional Data and New Methods. [Internet] [Thesis]. Penn State University; 2017. [cited 2019 Dec 16]. Available from: https://etda.libraries.psu.edu/catalog/12580agl127.

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Council of Science Editors:

Libardoni A. Improving Constraints on Climate System Properties with Additional Data and New Methods. [Thesis]. Penn State University; 2017. Available from: https://etda.libraries.psu.edu/catalog/12580agl127

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

University of Florida

27. Keellings, David James. Investigating Heatwaves in Europe and Florida Using Extreme Value Analysis.

Degree: PhD, Geography, 2015, University of Florida

URL: http://ufdc.ufl.edu/UFE0047708

► Heat waves kill more people than all other forms of extreme weather. Under the influence of climate change, it is very likely that heat waves… (more)

Subjects/Keywords: Atmospheric models; Atmospheric temperature; Atmospherics; Climate change; Climate models; Heat; High temperature; Parametric models; Statistical models; Temperature distribution; climate – extremes – heatwave – modeling – teleconnection

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APA · Chicago · MLA · Vancouver · CSE | Export to Zotero / EndNote / Reference Manager

APA (6^th Edition):

Keellings, D. J. (2015). Investigating Heatwaves in Europe and Florida Using Extreme Value Analysis. (Doctoral Dissertation). University of Florida. Retrieved from http://ufdc.ufl.edu/UFE0047708

Chicago Manual of Style (16^th Edition):

Keellings, David James. “Investigating Heatwaves in Europe and Florida Using Extreme Value Analysis.” 2015. Doctoral Dissertation, University of Florida. Accessed December 16, 2019. http://ufdc.ufl.edu/UFE0047708.

MLA Handbook (7^th Edition):

Keellings, David James. “Investigating Heatwaves in Europe and Florida Using Extreme Value Analysis.” 2015. Web. 16 Dec 2019.

Vancouver:

Keellings DJ. Investigating Heatwaves in Europe and Florida Using Extreme Value Analysis. [Internet] [Doctoral dissertation]. University of Florida; 2015. [cited 2019 Dec 16]. Available from: http://ufdc.ufl.edu/UFE0047708.

Council of Science Editors:

Keellings DJ. Investigating Heatwaves in Europe and Florida Using Extreme Value Analysis. [Doctoral Dissertation]. University of Florida; 2015. Available from: http://ufdc.ufl.edu/UFE0047708

Indian Institute of Science

28. Pattanayak, Sonali. A Hydroclimatological Change Detection and Attribution Study over India using CMIP5 Models.

Degree: 2015, Indian Institute of Science

URL: http://hdl.handle.net/2005/2761

► As a result of increase in global average surface temperature, abnormalities in different hydroclimatic components such as evapotranspiration, stream flow and precipitation have been experienced.… (more)

▼ As a result of increase in global average surface temperature, abnormalities in different hydroclimatic components such as evapotranspiration, stream flow and precipitation have been experienced. So investigation has to be carried out to assess the hidden abnormality subsisting in the hydroclimatological time series in the form of trend. This thesis broadly consists of following four parts. The first part comprises of a detailed review of various trend detection approaches. Approaches incorporating the effect of serial correlation for trend detection and interesting developments concerning various non parametric approaches are focused explicitly. Recent trends in annual, monthly, and seasonl (winter, pre-monsoon, monsoon and post-monsoon) Tmax and Tmin have been analyzed considering three time slots viz. 1901-2003, 1948-2003 and 1970-2003. For this purpose, time series of Tmax and Tmin of India as a whole and for seven homogeneous regions, viz. Western Himalaya (WH), Northwest (NW), Northeast (NE), North Central (NC), East coast (EC), West coast (WC) and Interior Peninsula (IP) were originally considered. During the last three decades significant upward trend in Tmin is found to be present in all regions considered either at annual or seasonal level. Sequential Mann Kendall test revealed that most of the significant upward trends both in Tmax and Tmin began after 1970. The second part discusses about numerous climate models from both Coupled Model Inter comparison Project-5 and 3 (i.e. CMIP5, CMIP3) and their skills in simulating Indian climate and assessing their performance using various evaluation measures. Performances of climate models were evaluated for whole of India and over all the individual grid points covering India. The newly defined metric symbolized as Skill_All is an intersection of the three metrics i.e. Skill_r, Skill_s and Skill_rmse, is used for overall model evaluation analysis. A notable enhancement of Skill_All for CMIP5 over CMIP3 was found. After overall model evaluation study, Compromise Programming, a distance based decision making technique, was employed to rank the GCMs gridwise. Entropy method was employed to obtain weights of the chosen indicators. Group decision making methodology was used to arrive at a consensus based on the ranking pattern obtained by individual grid points. In the third part, a detailed detection and attribution (D&A) analysis is performed to determine the causes of changes in seasonal Tmax and Tmin during the period 1950-2005. This formal D&A exercise helps in providing better insight (than trend detection analysis) into the nature of the observed seasonal temperature changes. It was noticed that the emergence of observed trend was more pronounced in Tmin compared to Tmax. Although observed changes were not solely associated with one specific causative factor, most of the changes in Tmin are above the bounds of natural internal climate variability. Finally in the fourth part, to understand the climate change impact on the hydrological cycle, a spatiotemporal… Advisors/Committee Members: Nagesh Kumar, D.

Subjects/Keywords: Hydroclimatology; Climatic Changes - India; Climate Models; Coupled Model Inter Comparison Project Models; Evapotranspiration; Seasonal Temperature Changes - India; Hydroclimatic Variables; Spatio-Temporal Variability; Meteorology; CMIP Models; CMIP5 Climate Models; CMIP3 Climate Models; Global Climate Models; Compromise Programming; Surface Temperature Changes - India; Civil Engineering

Record Details Similar Records Cite « Share

❌

APA · Chicago · MLA · Vancouver · CSE | Export to Zotero / EndNote / Reference Manager

APA (6^th Edition):

Pattanayak, S. (2015). A Hydroclimatological Change Detection and Attribution Study over India using CMIP5 Models. (Thesis). Indian Institute of Science. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/2005/2761

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Chicago Manual of Style (16^th Edition):

Pattanayak, Sonali. “A Hydroclimatological Change Detection and Attribution Study over India using CMIP5 Models.” 2015. Thesis, Indian Institute of Science. Accessed December 16, 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/2005/2761.

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

MLA Handbook (7^th Edition):

Pattanayak, Sonali. “A Hydroclimatological Change Detection and Attribution Study over India using CMIP5 Models.” 2015. Web. 16 Dec 2019.

Vancouver:

Pattanayak S. A Hydroclimatological Change Detection and Attribution Study over India using CMIP5 Models. [Internet] [Thesis]. Indian Institute of Science; 2015. [cited 2019 Dec 16]. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/2005/2761.

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Council of Science Editors:

Pattanayak S. A Hydroclimatological Change Detection and Attribution Study over India using CMIP5 Models. [Thesis]. Indian Institute of Science; 2015. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/2005/2761

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Indian Institute of Science

29. Pattanayak, Sonali. A Hydroclimatological Change Detection and Attribution Study over India using CMIP5 Models.

Degree: 2015, Indian Institute of Science

URL: http://etd.iisc.ernet.in/handle/2005/2761 ; http://etd.ncsi.iisc.ernet.in/abstracts/3626/G26882-Abs.pdf

► As a result of increase in global average surface temperature, abnormalities in different hydroclimatic components such as evapotranspiration, stream flow and precipitation have been experienced.… (more)

▼ As a result of increase in global average surface temperature, abnormalities in different hydroclimatic components such as evapotranspiration, stream flow and precipitation have been experienced. So investigation has to be carried out to assess the hidden abnormality subsisting in the hydroclimatological time series in the form of trend. This thesis broadly consists of following four parts. The first part comprises of a detailed review of various trend detection approaches. Approaches incorporating the effect of serial correlation for trend detection and interesting developments concerning various non parametric approaches are focused explicitly. Recent trends in annual, monthly, and seasonl (winter, pre-monsoon, monsoon and post-monsoon) Tmax and Tmin have been analyzed considering three time slots viz. 1901-2003, 1948-2003 and 1970-2003. For this purpose, time series of Tmax and Tmin of India as a whole and for seven homogeneous regions, viz. Western Himalaya (WH), Northwest (NW), Northeast (NE), North Central (NC), East coast (EC), West coast (WC) and Interior Peninsula (IP) were originally considered. During the last three decades significant upward trend in Tmin is found to be present in all regions considered either at annual or seasonal level. Sequential Mann Kendall test revealed that most of the significant upward trends both in Tmax and Tmin began after 1970. The second part discusses about numerous climate models from both Coupled Model Inter comparison Project-5 and 3 (i.e. CMIP5, CMIP3) and their skills in simulating Indian climate and assessing their performance using various evaluation measures. Performances of climate models were evaluated for whole of India and over all the individual grid points covering India. The newly defined metric symbolized as Skill_All is an intersection of the three metrics i.e. Skill_r, Skill_s and Skill_rmse, is used for overall model evaluation analysis. A notable enhancement of Skill_All for CMIP5 over CMIP3 was found. After overall model evaluation study, Compromise Programming, a distance based decision making technique, was employed to rank the GCMs gridwise. Entropy method was employed to obtain weights of the chosen indicators. Group decision making methodology was used to arrive at a consensus based on the ranking pattern obtained by individual grid points. In the third part, a detailed detection and attribution (D&A) analysis is performed to determine the causes of changes in seasonal Tmax and Tmin during the period 1950-2005. This formal D&A exercise helps in providing better insight (than trend detection analysis) into the nature of the observed seasonal temperature changes. It was noticed that the emergence of observed trend was more pronounced in Tmin compared to Tmax. Although observed changes were not solely associated with one specific causative factor, most of the changes in Tmin are above the bounds of natural internal climate variability. Finally in the fourth part, to understand the climate change impact on the hydrological cycle, a spatiotemporal… Advisors/Committee Members: Nagesh Kumar, D.

Subjects/Keywords: Hydroclimatology; Climatic Changes - India; Climate Models; Coupled Model Inter Comparison Project Models; Evapotranspiration; Seasonal Temperature Changes - India; Hydroclimatic Variables; Spatio-Temporal Variability; Meteorology; CMIP Models; CMIP5 Climate Models; CMIP3 Climate Models; Global Climate Models; Compromise Programming; Surface Temperature Changes - India; Civil Engineering

Record Details Similar Records Cite « Share

❌

APA · Chicago · MLA · Vancouver · CSE | Export to Zotero / EndNote / Reference Manager

APA (6^th Edition):

Pattanayak, S. (2015). A Hydroclimatological Change Detection and Attribution Study over India using CMIP5 Models. (Thesis). Indian Institute of Science. Retrieved from http://etd.iisc.ernet.in/handle/2005/2761 ; http://etd.ncsi.iisc.ernet.in/abstracts/3626/G26882-Abs.pdf

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Chicago Manual of Style (16^th Edition):

Pattanayak, Sonali. “A Hydroclimatological Change Detection and Attribution Study over India using CMIP5 Models.” 2015. Thesis, Indian Institute of Science. Accessed December 16, 2019. http://etd.iisc.ernet.in/handle/2005/2761 ; http://etd.ncsi.iisc.ernet.in/abstracts/3626/G26882-Abs.pdf.

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

MLA Handbook (7^th Edition):

Pattanayak, Sonali. “A Hydroclimatological Change Detection and Attribution Study over India using CMIP5 Models.” 2015. Web. 16 Dec 2019.

Vancouver:

Pattanayak S. A Hydroclimatological Change Detection and Attribution Study over India using CMIP5 Models. [Internet] [Thesis]. Indian Institute of Science; 2015. [cited 2019 Dec 16]. Available from: http://etd.iisc.ernet.in/handle/2005/2761 ; http://etd.ncsi.iisc.ernet.in/abstracts/3626/G26882-Abs.pdf.

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Council of Science Editors:

Pattanayak S. A Hydroclimatological Change Detection and Attribution Study over India using CMIP5 Models. [Thesis]. Indian Institute of Science; 2015. Available from: http://etd.iisc.ernet.in/handle/2005/2761 ; http://etd.ncsi.iisc.ernet.in/abstracts/3626/G26882-Abs.pdf

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

University of Florida

30. Sommer, Eleanor K. Agriculture and Climate Change Perceptions of Reticent Extension Agents in the Southeast USA.

Degree: MS, Interdisciplinary Ecology, 2014, University of Florida

URL: http://ufdc.ufl.edu/UFE0047567

► Climate change is a controversial but important issue for agriculture and natural resources in the Southeast USA. Although extreme weather events, for example, droughts, hurricanes,… (more)

Subjects/Keywords: Climate change; Climate models; Climatology; Conservatism; Global climate models; Heating; Misinformation; Political change; Political ideologies; Weather; agriculture – climate-change – extension – media – pinemap – selective-exposure – six-americas – southeast

Record Details Similar Records Cite « Share

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APA · Chicago · MLA · Vancouver · CSE | Export to Zotero / EndNote / Reference Manager

APA (6^th Edition):

Sommer, E. K. (2014). Agriculture and Climate Change Perceptions of Reticent Extension Agents in the Southeast USA. (Masters Thesis). University of Florida. Retrieved from http://ufdc.ufl.edu/UFE0047567

Chicago Manual of Style (16^th Edition):

Sommer, Eleanor K. “Agriculture and Climate Change Perceptions of Reticent Extension Agents in the Southeast USA.” 2014. Masters Thesis, University of Florida. Accessed December 16, 2019. http://ufdc.ufl.edu/UFE0047567.

MLA Handbook (7^th Edition):

Sommer, Eleanor K. “Agriculture and Climate Change Perceptions of Reticent Extension Agents in the Southeast USA.” 2014. Web. 16 Dec 2019.

Vancouver:

Sommer EK. Agriculture and Climate Change Perceptions of Reticent Extension Agents in the Southeast USA. [Internet] [Masters thesis]. University of Florida; 2014. [cited 2019 Dec 16]. Available from: http://ufdc.ufl.edu/UFE0047567.

Council of Science Editors:

Sommer EK. Agriculture and Climate Change Perceptions of Reticent Extension Agents in the Southeast USA. [Masters Thesis]. University of Florida; 2014. Available from: http://ufdc.ufl.edu/UFE0047567

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Open Access Theses and Dissertations