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You searched for subject:(Brier Score). Showing records 1 – 3 of 3 total matches.

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Texas A&M University

1. Mendez Ramos, Fabian. Three Essays on Prequential Analysis, Climate Change, and Mexican Agriculture.

Degree: PhD, Agricultural Economics, 2013, Texas A&M University

This dissertation addresses: 1) the reliability of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasts generated by the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) of Columbia University; 2) estimation of parameters of Mexican crop demand; and 3) the potential impacts of climate change on Mexican agriculture. The IRI ENSO forecasts were evaluated using prequential analysis, with calibration and scoring rules. Calibration tests and the Yates’ decomposition measures of the Brier score suggest that the IRI ENSO forecasts are improving in reliability and skill, showing a learning by doing behavior, i.e., these IRI ENSO forecasts show improved ability to predict the ENSO phases that really happen. In terms of estimation of the parameters of Mexican crop demand, an LA/AIDS model was used but the results were not very satisfactory with statistical tests rejecting homogeneity and symmetry. Furthermore, the estimated uncompensated price and income elasticities were found to be located in the tail regions of the Monte Carlo simulated density functions, showing poor validation of the initial estimates under similar economic (price and consumption) circumstances. Finally, in terms of the potential impacts that climate change has on Mexican agriculture, two 2050 climate change scenarios were examined. The central result indicates that Mexico benefits from climate change under the IPCC ensemble results for the B1 scenario and would experience welfare losses under the ensemble results for the A2 scenario. Moreover, dryland hectareage would decrease and would be replaced by irrigated areas. Finally, producer’s net income was found to decrease at the national level under both climate change scenarios. The results were generated using a mathematical programming sector model that was updated for the study. Advisors/Committee Members: McCarl, Bruce A. (advisor), Bessler, David A. (advisor), Wu, Ximing (committee member), North, Gerald R. (committee member), Mjelde, James W. (committee member).

Subjects/Keywords: Prequential Analysis; Climate Change; Mexican Agriculture; Agriculture Sector Model; Almost Ideal Demand System; Brier Score; Yates Decomposition

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APA (6th Edition):

Mendez Ramos, F. (2013). Three Essays on Prequential Analysis, Climate Change, and Mexican Agriculture. (Doctoral Dissertation). Texas A&M University. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/149609

Chicago Manual of Style (16th Edition):

Mendez Ramos, Fabian. “Three Essays on Prequential Analysis, Climate Change, and Mexican Agriculture.” 2013. Doctoral Dissertation, Texas A&M University. Accessed September 27, 2020. http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/149609.

MLA Handbook (7th Edition):

Mendez Ramos, Fabian. “Three Essays on Prequential Analysis, Climate Change, and Mexican Agriculture.” 2013. Web. 27 Sep 2020.

Vancouver:

Mendez Ramos F. Three Essays on Prequential Analysis, Climate Change, and Mexican Agriculture. [Internet] [Doctoral dissertation]. Texas A&M University; 2013. [cited 2020 Sep 27]. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/149609.

Council of Science Editors:

Mendez Ramos F. Three Essays on Prequential Analysis, Climate Change, and Mexican Agriculture. [Doctoral Dissertation]. Texas A&M University; 2013. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/149609

2. Dharmasena, Kalu Arachchillage Senarath. The Non-alcoholic Beverage Market in the United States: Demand Interrelationships, Dynamics, Nutrition Issues and Probability Forecast Evaluation.

Degree: PhD, Agricultural Economics, 2011, Texas A&M University

There are many different types of non-alcoholic beverages (NAB) available in the United States today compared to a decade ago. Additionally, the needs of beverage consumers have evolved over the years centering attention on functionality and health dimensions. These trends in volume of consumption are a testament to the growth in the NAB industry. Our study pertains to ten NAB categories. We developed and employed a unique cross-sectional and time-series data set based on Nielsen Homescan data associated with household purchases of NAB from 1998 through 2003. First, we considered demographic and economic profiling of the consumption of NAB in a two-stage model. Race, region, age and presence of children and gender of household head were the most important factors affecting the choice and level of consumption. Second, we used expectation-prediction success tables, calibration, resolution, the Brier score and the Yates partition of the Brier score to measure the accuracy of predictions generated from qualitative choice models used to model the purchase decision of NAB by U.S. households. The Yates partition of the Brier score outperformed all other measures. Third, we modeled demand interrelationships, dynamics and habits of NAB consumption estimating own-price, cross-price and expenditure elasticities. The Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System, the synthetic Barten model and the State Adjustment Model were used. Soft drinks were substitutes and fruit juices were complements for most of non-alcoholic beverages. Investigation of a proposed tax on sugar-sweetened beverages revealed the importance of centering attention not only to direct effects but also to indirect effects of taxes on beverage consumption. Finally, we investigated factors affecting nutritional contributions derived from consumption of NAB. Also, we ascertained the impact of the USDA year 2000 Dietary Guidelines for Americans associated with the consumption of NAB. Significant factors affecting caloric and nutrient intake from NAB were price, employment status of household head, region, race, presence of children and the gender of household food manager. Furthermore, we found that USDA nutrition intervention program was successful in reducing caloric and caffeine intake from consumption of NAB. The away-from-home intake of beverages and potential impacts of NAB advertising are not captured in our work. In future work, we plan to address these limitations. Advisors/Committee Members: Capps, Oral (advisor), Bessler, David A. (committee member), Love, Alan H. (committee member), Williams, Gary W. (committee member), Anderson, Richard K. (committee member).

Subjects/Keywords: Non-alcoholic beverages; Heckman Model; Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System; Houthakker and Taylor model; Barten Synthetic Model; State Adjustment Model; Demand systems; Probability Forecast Evaluation; The Brier Score; Nutritional Contributions of Non-alcoholic beverages; Diversion Ratio; Sugar-sweetened beverages; Yates Partition of the Brier score

…194 V PROBABILITY FORECAST EVALUATION THROUGH CALIBRATION, RESOLUTION, THE BRIER SCORE AND… …THE YATES PARTITION OF THE BRIER SCORE ............ 211 Data Preparation… …Analysis and Discussion ............................................... 308 The Brier Score and… …the Yates Partition of the Brier Score ........ 338 Theoretical Development… …632 APPENDIX 4 DERIVATION OF THE COVARIANCE DECOMPOSITION OF THE BRIER SCORE AND… 

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APA (6th Edition):

Dharmasena, K. A. S. (2011). The Non-alcoholic Beverage Market in the United States: Demand Interrelationships, Dynamics, Nutrition Issues and Probability Forecast Evaluation. (Doctoral Dissertation). Texas A&M University. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/ETD-TAMU-2010-05-7911

Chicago Manual of Style (16th Edition):

Dharmasena, Kalu Arachchillage Senarath. “The Non-alcoholic Beverage Market in the United States: Demand Interrelationships, Dynamics, Nutrition Issues and Probability Forecast Evaluation.” 2011. Doctoral Dissertation, Texas A&M University. Accessed September 27, 2020. http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/ETD-TAMU-2010-05-7911.

MLA Handbook (7th Edition):

Dharmasena, Kalu Arachchillage Senarath. “The Non-alcoholic Beverage Market in the United States: Demand Interrelationships, Dynamics, Nutrition Issues and Probability Forecast Evaluation.” 2011. Web. 27 Sep 2020.

Vancouver:

Dharmasena KAS. The Non-alcoholic Beverage Market in the United States: Demand Interrelationships, Dynamics, Nutrition Issues and Probability Forecast Evaluation. [Internet] [Doctoral dissertation]. Texas A&M University; 2011. [cited 2020 Sep 27]. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/ETD-TAMU-2010-05-7911.

Council of Science Editors:

Dharmasena KAS. The Non-alcoholic Beverage Market in the United States: Demand Interrelationships, Dynamics, Nutrition Issues and Probability Forecast Evaluation. [Doctoral Dissertation]. Texas A&M University; 2011. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/ETD-TAMU-2010-05-7911


Delft University of Technology

3. Bosboom, J. Quantifying the quality of coastal morphological predictions.

Degree: 2020, Delft University of Technology

<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:none;mso-layout-grid-align:none; text-autospace:none">This thesis investigates the behaviour of the often used point-wise skill score, the MSESSini a.k.a. BSS, and develops new error metrics that, as opposed to point-wise metrics, take the spatial structure of morphological patterns into account. The MSESSini measures the relative accuracy of a morphological prediction over a prediction of zero morphological change, using the mean-squared error (MSE) as the accuracy measure. The main findings about the MSESSini are: 1) a generic ranking, based on values for MSESSini, has limited validity, since the zero change reference model fails to make model performance comparable across different prediction situations; 2) the combination of larger, persistent and smaller, intermittent scales of cumulative change may lead to an increase of skill with time, without the prediction on either of these scales becoming more skilful with time; 3) in the presence of inevitable location errors, the MSESSini favours predictions that underestimate the variance of cumulative bed changes and 4) existing methods to correct for measurement error are inconsistent in either their skill formulation or their suggested classification scheme. In order to overcome the inherent limitations of point-wise metrics, three novel diagnostic tools for the spatial validation of 2D morphological predictions are developed. First, a field deformation or warping method deforms the predictions towards the observations, minimizing the squared point-wise error. Error measures are formulated based on both the smooth displacement field between predictions and observations and the residual point-wise error field after the deformation. In contrast with the RMSE, the method captures the visual closeness of morphological patterns. Second, an optimal transport method defines the distance between predicted and observed morphological fields in terms of an optimal sediment transport field. The optimal corrective transport field moves the misplaced sediment from the predicted to the observed morphology at the lowest quadratic transportation cost. The root-mean-squared value of the optimal transport field, the RMSTE, is proposed as a new error metric. As opposed to the field deformation method, the optimal transport method is mass-conserving, parameter-free and symmetric. The RMSTE, unlike the RMSE, is able to discriminate between predictions that differ in the misplacement distance of predicted morphological features. It also avoids the consistent reward of the underestimation of morphological variability that the RMSE is prone to. Third, a scale-selective validation approach allows any metric to selectively address multiple spatial scales. It employs a smoothing filter in such a way that, in addition to the domain-averaged statistics, localized validation statistics and maps of prediction quality are obtained per scale (geographic extent or areal size of focus). The employed skill score weights how well the morphological structure and… Advisors/Committee Members: Reniers, A.J.H.M., Stive, M.J.F., Delft University of Technology.

Subjects/Keywords: (root)-mean-squared error; model accuracy; morphodynamic modelling; model validation; optimal transport; Monge–Kantorovich; root-mean-squared transport error; effective transport difference; image warping; image matching; scale-selective validation; optical flow; Brier skill score; model skill; zero change model; measurement error; location error; pattern skill

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APA · Chicago · MLA · Vancouver · CSE | Export to Zotero / EndNote / Reference Manager

APA (6th Edition):

Bosboom, J. (2020). Quantifying the quality of coastal morphological predictions. (Doctoral Dissertation). Delft University of Technology. Retrieved from http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:e4dc2dfc-6c9c-4849-8aa9-befa3001e2a3 ; urn:NBN:nl:ui:24-uuid:e4dc2dfc-6c9c-4849-8aa9-befa3001e2a3 ; e4dc2dfc-6c9c-4849-8aa9-befa3001e2a3 ; 10.4233/uuid:e4dc2dfc-6c9c-4849-8aa9-befa3001e2a3 ; urn:isbn:978-94-6384-091-0 ; urn:NBN:nl:ui:24-uuid:e4dc2dfc-6c9c-4849-8aa9-befa3001e2a3 ; http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:e4dc2dfc-6c9c-4849-8aa9-befa3001e2a3

Chicago Manual of Style (16th Edition):

Bosboom, J. “Quantifying the quality of coastal morphological predictions.” 2020. Doctoral Dissertation, Delft University of Technology. Accessed September 27, 2020. http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:e4dc2dfc-6c9c-4849-8aa9-befa3001e2a3 ; urn:NBN:nl:ui:24-uuid:e4dc2dfc-6c9c-4849-8aa9-befa3001e2a3 ; e4dc2dfc-6c9c-4849-8aa9-befa3001e2a3 ; 10.4233/uuid:e4dc2dfc-6c9c-4849-8aa9-befa3001e2a3 ; urn:isbn:978-94-6384-091-0 ; urn:NBN:nl:ui:24-uuid:e4dc2dfc-6c9c-4849-8aa9-befa3001e2a3 ; http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:e4dc2dfc-6c9c-4849-8aa9-befa3001e2a3.

MLA Handbook (7th Edition):

Bosboom, J. “Quantifying the quality of coastal morphological predictions.” 2020. Web. 27 Sep 2020.

Vancouver:

Bosboom J. Quantifying the quality of coastal morphological predictions. [Internet] [Doctoral dissertation]. Delft University of Technology; 2020. [cited 2020 Sep 27]. Available from: http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:e4dc2dfc-6c9c-4849-8aa9-befa3001e2a3 ; urn:NBN:nl:ui:24-uuid:e4dc2dfc-6c9c-4849-8aa9-befa3001e2a3 ; e4dc2dfc-6c9c-4849-8aa9-befa3001e2a3 ; 10.4233/uuid:e4dc2dfc-6c9c-4849-8aa9-befa3001e2a3 ; urn:isbn:978-94-6384-091-0 ; urn:NBN:nl:ui:24-uuid:e4dc2dfc-6c9c-4849-8aa9-befa3001e2a3 ; http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:e4dc2dfc-6c9c-4849-8aa9-befa3001e2a3.

Council of Science Editors:

Bosboom J. Quantifying the quality of coastal morphological predictions. [Doctoral Dissertation]. Delft University of Technology; 2020. Available from: http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:e4dc2dfc-6c9c-4849-8aa9-befa3001e2a3 ; urn:NBN:nl:ui:24-uuid:e4dc2dfc-6c9c-4849-8aa9-befa3001e2a3 ; e4dc2dfc-6c9c-4849-8aa9-befa3001e2a3 ; 10.4233/uuid:e4dc2dfc-6c9c-4849-8aa9-befa3001e2a3 ; urn:isbn:978-94-6384-091-0 ; urn:NBN:nl:ui:24-uuid:e4dc2dfc-6c9c-4849-8aa9-befa3001e2a3 ; http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:e4dc2dfc-6c9c-4849-8aa9-befa3001e2a3

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