subject:( Great Inflation)

University of Adelaide

1. Haque, Qazi G M Ziaul. Bayesian estimation of monetary DSGE models and testing for indeterminacy.

Degree: 2018, University of Adelaide

► This thesis consists of three self-contained papers on U.S. monetary policy. The first paper examines monetary policy in the early 2000s, a prolonged period of… (more)

▼ This thesis consists of three self-contained papers on U.S. monetary policy. The first paper examines monetary policy in the early 2000s, a prolonged period of low interest rates for which the efficacy of policy is intensely debated. Through the lens of an estimated simple New Keynesian (NK) model, the paper finds that when measuring inflation using headline CPI, the Federal Reserve's response to inflation turns out to be passive, therefore implying indeterminacy. Only when measuring inflation using core PCE does monetary policy appear to have been sufficiently active to rule out indeterminacy. Faced with this dilemma, the paper finally estimates an extended model that distinguishes between core and headline inflation. Estimation results from this model decisively rule out indeterminacy and suggest that indeed the Fed has put more weight on core PCE. The second paper contrasts interest rate rules featuring fixed versus time-varying inflation target. It finds that the rule embedding time variation in inflation target empirically fits better and that the Fed has been responding strongly to the inflation gap not only in the Great Moderation period but also in the Great Inflation era. Therefore, this finding rules out self-fulfilling inflation expectations as an explanation of the high inflation episode in the 1970s. The paper also documents that changes in monetary policy have dampened most of the fluctuations in the inflation gap and contributed to the decline in its persistence and predictability. The third paper investigates the impact of commodity price fluctuations on monetary policy and estimates a NK model with an explicit role for commodity price fluctuations. It finds that the pre-Volcker period is characterized by a determinate version of the model featuring high degree of real wage rigidity In this environment, the commodity price shocks of the 1970s created a severe trade-off between inflation and output gap stabilization. Faced with this puzzle, the central bank chose to react aggressively to both inflation and output growth, but not to the output gap, thereby ruling out indeterminacy. The paper further documents that oil price shocks are no longer as inflationary as they used to be due to a decline in real wage rigidity, thereby explaining the resilience of the economy to sustained oil price hikes in the 2000s. Advisors/Committee Members: Weder, Mark (advisor), Groshenny, Nicolas (advisor), Doko Tchatoka, Firmin (advisor), School of Economics (school).

Subjects/Keywords: Research by publication; monetary policy; Taylor rules; indeterminacy; trend inflation; Great Inflation; Sequential Monte Carlo

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APA (6^th Edition):

Haque, Q. G. M. Z. (2018). Bayesian estimation of monetary DSGE models and testing for indeterminacy. (Thesis). University of Adelaide. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/2440/114258

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Chicago Manual of Style (16^th Edition):

Haque, Qazi G M Ziaul. “Bayesian estimation of monetary DSGE models and testing for indeterminacy.” 2018. Thesis, University of Adelaide. Accessed January 21, 2021. http://hdl.handle.net/2440/114258.

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

MLA Handbook (7^th Edition):

Haque, Qazi G M Ziaul. “Bayesian estimation of monetary DSGE models and testing for indeterminacy.” 2018. Web. 21 Jan 2021.

Vancouver:

Haque QGMZ. Bayesian estimation of monetary DSGE models and testing for indeterminacy. [Internet] [Thesis]. University of Adelaide; 2018. [cited 2021 Jan 21]. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/2440/114258.

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Council of Science Editors:

Haque QGMZ. Bayesian estimation of monetary DSGE models and testing for indeterminacy. [Thesis]. University of Adelaide; 2018. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/2440/114258

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

2. Mazhar, Uhmad. Essays in the political economy of inflation : Essais dans l'économie politique de l'inflation.

Degree: Docteur es, Macroéconomie, économie internationale et monnaie, 2012, Université de Strasbourg

URL: http://www.theses.fr/2012STRAB003

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Cette dissertation intitulé « Essays in the Political Economy of Inflation » est compris de trois papiers qui étudient le problème d'inflation d'une perspective politique-institutionnel.… (more)

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Cette dissertation intitulé « Essays in the Political Economy of Inflation » est compris de trois papiers qui étudient le problème d'inflation d'une perspective politique-institutionnel. Tous les trois essais appliquent des outils techniques modernes de macroéconomie pour étudier des facteurs différents qui affectent le choix de politiques. Il est montré que ces facteurs sont cruciaux dans former la structure de gouvernance favorable pour l'efficacité de politique. L'environnement politique-économique complexe est difficile d'étudier avec les modèles traditionnels de politique économique fondée sur un projeteur social bienveillant qui maximise l'utilité d'un individu représentatif. Cette thèse, donc, approche l'économie politique d'inflation d'un côté pratique réaliste.Le premier essai a autorisé «Taxing the unobservable: The impact of shadow economy oninflation and taxes», est motivé par plusieurs études théoriques et empiriques qui se dispute que le taux d'inflation optimal augmente dans la taille de l'économie simple. Dans ce papier, nous construisons un petit modèle théorique qui a deux composants clés. Premièrement, il modèle explicitement le choix du gouvernement pour l'impôt de revenu ou inflation. Notre cadre est général et n'impose pas de la condition de la nature du gouvernement (i.e., il n'exige pas le gouvernement pour être nécessairement bienveillant ou corrompu). Deuxièmement, nous considérons explicitement l'économie l’informel (shadow economy) dans la fonction du gouvernement objectif. Il nous permet de voir comment il influe la charge fiscale et l'inflation. Notre modèle théorique indique un coût marginal croissant d'impôts et un taux croissant d'inflation dans l'économie d'ombre (shadow economy). Le principe de remplacement marginal rationalise le choix du gouvernement d'impôt d'inflation sur l'impôt sur le revenu.

This dissertation titled “Essays in the Political Economy of Inflation” is comprised of three papers which study the problem of inflation from a political-institutional perspective. All the three essays apply modern technical tools of macroeconomics to study different factors that affect the choice of policies. It is shown that these factors are crucial in shaping the governance structure conducive for policy effectiveness. The complex political-economic environment is difficult to study with traditional models of economic policy based on a benevolent social planner maximizing the utility of a representative individual. This thesis, therefore, approaches the political economy of inflation from a realistic practical side. The first essay titled “Taxing the unobservable: The impact of shadow economy oninflation and taxes”, is motivated from several theoretical and empirical studies which argue that optimal inflation rate increases in the size of informal economy. In this paper, we construct a small theoretical model that has two key components. First, it explicitly models the government’s choice for income or inflation tax. Our framework is general and does not impose any condition about…

Advisors/Committee Members: Cornand, Camille (thesis director), Méon, Pierre Guillaume (thesis director).

Subjects/Keywords: Politique monétaire; Inflation; Economie souterraine; Monetary policy; Transparency; Inflation; Central banking; Shadow economy; Panel data; Monetary policy committee; Great moderation; 332.4

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APA (6^th Edition):

Mazhar, U. (2012). Essays in the political economy of inflation : Essais dans l'économie politique de l'inflation. (Doctoral Dissertation). Université de Strasbourg. Retrieved from http://www.theses.fr/2012STRAB003

Chicago Manual of Style (16^th Edition):

Mazhar, Uhmad. “Essays in the political economy of inflation : Essais dans l'économie politique de l'inflation.” 2012. Doctoral Dissertation, Université de Strasbourg. Accessed January 21, 2021. http://www.theses.fr/2012STRAB003.

MLA Handbook (7^th Edition):

Mazhar, Uhmad. “Essays in the political economy of inflation : Essais dans l'économie politique de l'inflation.” 2012. Web. 21 Jan 2021.

Vancouver:

Mazhar U. Essays in the political economy of inflation : Essais dans l'économie politique de l'inflation. [Internet] [Doctoral dissertation]. Université de Strasbourg; 2012. [cited 2021 Jan 21]. Available from: http://www.theses.fr/2012STRAB003.

Council of Science Editors:

Mazhar U. Essays in the political economy of inflation : Essais dans l'économie politique de l'inflation. [Doctoral Dissertation]. Université de Strasbourg; 2012. Available from: http://www.theses.fr/2012STRAB003

Simon Fraser University

3. Sleeman, Allan G. Essays on the United Kingdom Phillips curve.

Degree: 1983, Simon Fraser University

URL: http://summit.sfu.ca/item/6146

Subjects/Keywords: Phillips curve.; Wages – Great Britain – Mathematical models.; Inflation (Finance) – Great Britain – Mathematical models.

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APA · Chicago · MLA · Vancouver · CSE | Export to Zotero / EndNote / Reference Manager

APA (6^th Edition):

Sleeman, A. G. (1983). Essays on the United Kingdom Phillips curve. (Thesis). Simon Fraser University. Retrieved from http://summit.sfu.ca/item/6146

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Chicago Manual of Style (16^th Edition):

Sleeman, Allan G. “Essays on the United Kingdom Phillips curve.” 1983. Thesis, Simon Fraser University. Accessed January 21, 2021. http://summit.sfu.ca/item/6146.

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

MLA Handbook (7^th Edition):

Sleeman, Allan G. “Essays on the United Kingdom Phillips curve.” 1983. Web. 21 Jan 2021.

Vancouver:

Sleeman AG. Essays on the United Kingdom Phillips curve. [Internet] [Thesis]. Simon Fraser University; 1983. [cited 2021 Jan 21]. Available from: http://summit.sfu.ca/item/6146.

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Council of Science Editors:

Sleeman AG. Essays on the United Kingdom Phillips curve. [Thesis]. Simon Fraser University; 1983. Available from: http://summit.sfu.ca/item/6146

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Texas Tech University

4. Yamak, Rahmi. The effects of the variances of the aggregate price disturbances on the inflation-output tradeoffs: the United States and the United Kingdom, 1963:I-1987:IV.

Degree: Economics, 1993, Texas Tech University

URL: http://hdl.handle.net/2346/21888

Subjects/Keywords: Kalman filtering; Inflation (Finance) – Great Britain – Mathematical models; Inflation (Finance) – United States – Mathematical models; Inflation (Finance) – Effect of productivity on; Inflation (Finance) – Mathematical models; Unemployment – Effect of inflation on

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APA (6^th Edition):

Yamak, R. (1993). The effects of the variances of the aggregate price disturbances on the inflation-output tradeoffs: the United States and the United Kingdom, 1963:I-1987:IV. (Thesis). Texas Tech University. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/2346/21888

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Chicago Manual of Style (16^th Edition):

Yamak, Rahmi. “The effects of the variances of the aggregate price disturbances on the inflation-output tradeoffs: the United States and the United Kingdom, 1963:I-1987:IV.” 1993. Thesis, Texas Tech University. Accessed January 21, 2021. http://hdl.handle.net/2346/21888.

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

MLA Handbook (7^th Edition):

Yamak, Rahmi. “The effects of the variances of the aggregate price disturbances on the inflation-output tradeoffs: the United States and the United Kingdom, 1963:I-1987:IV.” 1993. Web. 21 Jan 2021.

Vancouver:

Yamak R. The effects of the variances of the aggregate price disturbances on the inflation-output tradeoffs: the United States and the United Kingdom, 1963:I-1987:IV. [Internet] [Thesis]. Texas Tech University; 1993. [cited 2021 Jan 21]. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/2346/21888.

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Council of Science Editors:

Yamak R. The effects of the variances of the aggregate price disturbances on the inflation-output tradeoffs: the United States and the United Kingdom, 1963:I-1987:IV. [Thesis]. Texas Tech University; 1993. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/2346/21888

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

University of Alberta

5. Wilby, Jonathan M. Wage and price controls: a theoretical analysis and an examination of the British experience.

Degree: MA, Department of Economics, 1980, University of Alberta

URL: https://era.library.ualberta.ca/files/gb19f7740

"Spring 1980"

Subjects/Keywords: Inflation (Finance).; Wage-price policy – Great Britain.; Wage-price policy.

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APA · Chicago · MLA · Vancouver · CSE | Export to Zotero / EndNote / Reference Manager

APA (6^th Edition):

Wilby, J. M. (1980). Wage and price controls: a theoretical analysis and an examination of the British experience. (Masters Thesis). University of Alberta. Retrieved from https://era.library.ualberta.ca/files/gb19f7740

Chicago Manual of Style (16^th Edition):

Wilby, Jonathan M. “Wage and price controls: a theoretical analysis and an examination of the British experience.” 1980. Masters Thesis, University of Alberta. Accessed January 21, 2021. https://era.library.ualberta.ca/files/gb19f7740.

MLA Handbook (7^th Edition):

Wilby, Jonathan M. “Wage and price controls: a theoretical analysis and an examination of the British experience.” 1980. Web. 21 Jan 2021.

Vancouver:

Wilby JM. Wage and price controls: a theoretical analysis and an examination of the British experience. [Internet] [Masters thesis]. University of Alberta; 1980. [cited 2021 Jan 21]. Available from: https://era.library.ualberta.ca/files/gb19f7740.

Council of Science Editors:

Wilby JM. Wage and price controls: a theoretical analysis and an examination of the British experience. [Masters Thesis]. University of Alberta; 1980. Available from: https://era.library.ualberta.ca/files/gb19f7740

Universitat Pompeu Fabra

6. Ormeño Sánchez, Arturo. Essays on Inflation Expectations, Heterogeneous Agents, and the Use of Approximated Solutions in the Estimation of DSGE models.

Degree: Departament d'Economia i Empresa, 2011, Universitat Pompeu Fabra

URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10803/51247

► En esta tesis analizo desvíos de tres supuestos comunes en la elaboración y estimación de modelos macroeconómicos. Estos supuestos son la Hipótesis de Expectativas Racionales… (more)

Subjects/Keywords: Survey data; Learning models; Inflation expectations; Bayesian econometrics; Consumption of durables; Income uncertainty; Imperfect risk sharing; Approximated policy functions; Great Moderation; 33

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APA (6^th Edition):

Ormeño Sánchez, A. (2011). Essays on Inflation Expectations, Heterogeneous Agents, and the Use of Approximated Solutions in the Estimation of DSGE models. (Thesis). Universitat Pompeu Fabra. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/10803/51247

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Chicago Manual of Style (16^th Edition):

Ormeño Sánchez, Arturo. “Essays on Inflation Expectations, Heterogeneous Agents, and the Use of Approximated Solutions in the Estimation of DSGE models.” 2011. Thesis, Universitat Pompeu Fabra. Accessed January 21, 2021. http://hdl.handle.net/10803/51247.

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

MLA Handbook (7^th Edition):

Ormeño Sánchez, Arturo. “Essays on Inflation Expectations, Heterogeneous Agents, and the Use of Approximated Solutions in the Estimation of DSGE models.” 2011. Web. 21 Jan 2021.

Vancouver:

Ormeño Sánchez A. Essays on Inflation Expectations, Heterogeneous Agents, and the Use of Approximated Solutions in the Estimation of DSGE models. [Internet] [Thesis]. Universitat Pompeu Fabra; 2011. [cited 2021 Jan 21]. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/10803/51247.

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Council of Science Editors:

Ormeño Sánchez A. Essays on Inflation Expectations, Heterogeneous Agents, and the Use of Approximated Solutions in the Estimation of DSGE models. [Thesis]. Universitat Pompeu Fabra; 2011. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/10803/51247

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

University of New South Wales

7. Liu, Yuelin. Three Essays on Inflation and Unemployment Fluctuations in the United States.

Degree: Economics, 2014, University of New South Wales

URL: http://handle.unsw.edu.au/1959.4/54105 ; https://unsworks.unsw.edu.au/fapi/datastream/unsworks:13094/SOURCE02?view=true

► This thesis consists of three essays examining the driving forces behind in inflation and unemployment fluctuations in the United States.In the first essay, a time-varying… (more)

▼ This thesis consists of three essays examining the driving forces behind in inflation and unemployment fluctuations in the United States.In the first essay, a time-varying parameter vector auto-regressive model with stochastic volatility and mixture innovations is developed to study the empirical relevance of the Lucas critique for the postwar U.S. economy. Contrary to the Lucas critique, there are large changes at certain points of time in the parameters associated with monetary policy that do not correspond to changes in reduced-form parameters for inflation or the unemployment rate. However, an apparent reduction in the late1980s in the impact of monetary policy shocks on inflation, but not on the unemployment rate, is documented. Related, there appear to be changes in the slope of Phillips Curve in the 1970s and especially since the mid-1990s.In the second essay, endogenous labor force participation, partial consumption insurance, and unemployment are introduced into an otherwise standard New Keynesian Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides model. In the model, the unemployed pay certain costs to search for a job and they are better off if matched with one. Hence, any resulting unemployment is involuntary and satisfies the official definition of unemployment in the United States. I find that allowing for endogenous labor force participation greatly improves the model fit for U.S. data. Model estimates suggest an extremely high degree of real wage rigidity to account for the labor market data.It appears that the price markup shock and matching efficiency shock are the two key driving forces of unemployment fluctuations.In the third essay, the role of matching efficiency at the aggregate level in driving unemployment fluctuations is estimated using a TVP-SVAR model. Observing that estimated aggregate matching efficiency lags business cycles, I identify aggregate matching efficiency shock using standard timing restrictions. I conclude that aggregate matching efficiency shock explains no more than 20% of the variation in unemployment in the United States between 1967-2013, whereas the aggregate shocks explain above 70% of unemployment fluctuations. Related, the rise in the unemployment rate during the Great Recession is dominated by a slump in aggregate demandrather than being driven by structural factors. Advisors/Committee Members: Morley, James, Economics, Australian School of Business, UNSW.

Subjects/Keywords: Inflation; Unemployment; Fluctuations; United States; Lucas critique; Postwar economy; Phillips Curve; New Keynesian Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides; TVP-SVAR model; 1967-2013; Great Recession

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APA (6^th Edition):

Liu, Y. (2014). Three Essays on Inflation and Unemployment Fluctuations in the United States. (Doctoral Dissertation). University of New South Wales. Retrieved from http://handle.unsw.edu.au/1959.4/54105 ; https://unsworks.unsw.edu.au/fapi/datastream/unsworks:13094/SOURCE02?view=true

Chicago Manual of Style (16^th Edition):

Liu, Yuelin. “Three Essays on Inflation and Unemployment Fluctuations in the United States.” 2014. Doctoral Dissertation, University of New South Wales. Accessed January 21, 2021. http://handle.unsw.edu.au/1959.4/54105 ; https://unsworks.unsw.edu.au/fapi/datastream/unsworks:13094/SOURCE02?view=true.

MLA Handbook (7^th Edition):

Liu, Yuelin. “Three Essays on Inflation and Unemployment Fluctuations in the United States.” 2014. Web. 21 Jan 2021.

Vancouver:

Liu Y. Three Essays on Inflation and Unemployment Fluctuations in the United States. [Internet] [Doctoral dissertation]. University of New South Wales; 2014. [cited 2021 Jan 21]. Available from: http://handle.unsw.edu.au/1959.4/54105 ; https://unsworks.unsw.edu.au/fapi/datastream/unsworks:13094/SOURCE02?view=true.

Council of Science Editors:

Liu Y. Three Essays on Inflation and Unemployment Fluctuations in the United States. [Doctoral Dissertation]. University of New South Wales; 2014. Available from: http://handle.unsw.edu.au/1959.4/54105 ; https://unsworks.unsw.edu.au/fapi/datastream/unsworks:13094/SOURCE02?view=true

University of Florida

8. Wen, Peng Cheng. Monetary policy, wage rates, and productivity in the United States and United Kingdom, 1970 to 1990.

Degree: 1991, University of Florida

URL: https://ufdc.ufl.edu/AA00024899

Subjects/Keywords: Econometrics; Economic inflation; Inflation rates; Keynesianism; Mathematical variables; Monetary policy; Nominal wages; Productivity; Time series; Wages; Economic conditions – Great Britain – 1945-; Economics thesis Ph. D; Monetary policy – Great Britain; City of Milton ( local )

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APA (6^th Edition):

Wen, P. C. (1991). Monetary policy, wage rates, and productivity in the United States and United Kingdom, 1970 to 1990. (Thesis). University of Florida. Retrieved from https://ufdc.ufl.edu/AA00024899

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Chicago Manual of Style (16^th Edition):

Wen, Peng Cheng. “Monetary policy, wage rates, and productivity in the United States and United Kingdom, 1970 to 1990.” 1991. Thesis, University of Florida. Accessed January 21, 2021. https://ufdc.ufl.edu/AA00024899.

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

MLA Handbook (7^th Edition):

Wen, Peng Cheng. “Monetary policy, wage rates, and productivity in the United States and United Kingdom, 1970 to 1990.” 1991. Web. 21 Jan 2021.

Vancouver:

Wen PC. Monetary policy, wage rates, and productivity in the United States and United Kingdom, 1970 to 1990. [Internet] [Thesis]. University of Florida; 1991. [cited 2021 Jan 21]. Available from: https://ufdc.ufl.edu/AA00024899.

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Council of Science Editors:

Wen PC. Monetary policy, wage rates, and productivity in the United States and United Kingdom, 1970 to 1990. [Thesis]. University of Florida; 1991. Available from: https://ufdc.ufl.edu/AA00024899

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

9. Binder, Carola Conces. Expectations and Uncertainty in the Macroeconomy.

Degree: Economics, 2015, University of California – Berkeley

URL: http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/8755m00n

► This dissertation consists of three chapters with a common theme of expectations and beliefs in the macroeconomy. The first chapter introduces a micro-level measure of… (more)

▼ This dissertation consists of three chapters with a common theme of expectations and beliefs in the macroeconomy. The first chapter introduces a micro-level measure of consumer inflation uncertainty. Literature on cognition and communication documents that people use round numbers as a communicative tool to convey uncertainty. I construct an uncertainty measure that exploits consumers' tendency to round their inflation forecasts to multiples of five on the Michigan Survey of Consumers. I document cross-sectional and time series properties of the measure and provide support for its validity. Mean inflation uncertainty is countercyclical and positively correlated with inflation disagreement, inflation volatility, and the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index. Inflation uncertainty varies more in the cross section than over time, so a major benefit of this new measure is its cross-sectional dimension which enables micro-level analysis of the relationship between uncertainty and consumption. More uncertain consumers are more reluctant to spend on durables, cars, and homes, and their spending attitudes are less sensitive to interest rates. The measure also has applications to inflation dynamics and monetary policy. For example, the expectations of more-certain consumers can be used to improve Phillips curve estimation.The second chapter focuses on central bank communication with households. Transparent communication with the general public is a stated goal of the Federal Reserve. While most research has focused on central bank communication with financial markets, this paper evaluates the effectiveness of Federal Reserve communication with the public at large. While professional forecasters are attentive to Federal Reserve communications regarding the price stability objective, including the announcement of a 2% inflation target, many households are not. Consumers' inflation expectations are weakly-anchored, especially among less-educated, low-income, and female consumers. Anchoring has not improved notably since the late 1990s. News and media data reveal that Federal Reserve communications are not widely propagated through traditional or new media channels to the public and that that consumers do not proactively seek information on monetary policy. Evidence collected from dozens of surveys from the 1950s to 2014 exposes a lack of public awareness of the Federal Reserve and its objectives and a decline in public opinion of central bankers.The third chapter studies expectations in an important episode of economic history. Competing interpretations of the Great Depression depend on the behavior of inflation expectations in the onset and recovery. A number of papers have examined whether the deflation of 1930-32 was anticipated and when positive inflationary expectations reappeared. I review and compare the various statistical, narrative, and market-based approaches that have been used to estimate inflation expectations in the Great Depression era and supplement these approaches with additional methods and narrative evidence. I…

Subjects/Keywords: Economics; Economic history; consumption; Federal Reserve; Great Depression; inflation expectations; monetary policy; uncertainty

…142 C Inflation Expectations in the Great Depression Appendices 151 C.1 Data Descriptions… …though inflation uncertainty reached historically high levels in the Great Recession but only… …inflation dynamics since the Great Recession are most accurate when using the expectations of low… …99 Bibliography 102 A Consumer Inflation Uncertainty Appendices A.1 Data Descriptions… …A.5 Model of Inflation Uncertainty and Intertemporal Allocation A.6 Inflation Uncertainty…

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APA (6^th Edition):

Binder, C. C. (2015). Expectations and Uncertainty in the Macroeconomy. (Thesis). University of California – Berkeley. Retrieved from http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/8755m00n

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Chicago Manual of Style (16^th Edition):

Binder, Carola Conces. “Expectations and Uncertainty in the Macroeconomy.” 2015. Thesis, University of California – Berkeley. Accessed January 21, 2021. http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/8755m00n.

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

MLA Handbook (7^th Edition):

Binder, Carola Conces. “Expectations and Uncertainty in the Macroeconomy.” 2015. Web. 21 Jan 2021.

Vancouver:

Binder CC. Expectations and Uncertainty in the Macroeconomy. [Internet] [Thesis]. University of California – Berkeley; 2015. [cited 2021 Jan 21]. Available from: http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/8755m00n.

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Council of Science Editors:

Binder CC. Expectations and Uncertainty in the Macroeconomy. [Thesis]. University of California – Berkeley; 2015. Available from: http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/8755m00n

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

10. Monk, David Roger. The dominant discourse of central bank independence .

Degree: 2017, Australian National University

URL: http://hdl.handle.net/1885/143483

► The period from 1960 to 2000 saw a major evolution in monetary policy and institutions. This dissertation makes the claim that there is a better… (more)

▼ The period from 1960 to 2000 saw a major evolution in monetary policy and institutions. This dissertation makes the claim that there is a better explanation of these events than the typical narrative, or dominant discourse. The typical narrative is that a relationship between inflation and unemployment (the Phillips Curve) was proposed around 1960. One interpretation of the relationship was that increasing aggregate demand would reduce unemployment with some acceptable inflation. Milton Friedman then stated in 1968 that, in the long run, this practice would entrench inflationary expectations and there would be no useful employment benefits. This was accepted by the economics profession, especially by the mid-1970s, around the time of the first oil shock. This period also saw the rise of stagflation and the countries that managed the inflationary outbreak best were those where independent central banks were able to withstand politicians’ short term instincts. Economists attributed this to a commitment concept; if governments could override their central bank only at the cost of legislation or constitutional change, then monetary policy would focus more on long term expectations, rather than the political short term. Empirical work in the 1990s established this relationship and many countries made their central banks more independent during this decade. A better view acknowledges some features of this narrative. For example, Milton Friedman’s theory of expectations was very influential. (Chapter 2). But there is reduced evidence for the rest of this narrative. For example, the Federal Reserve did tighten monetary policy after 1982 compared with the period before 1979, but this appears to have been through placing less emphasis on output instead of being more inflation averse. Further, policymakers in the late 1960s and 1970s underestimated the level of unemployment at which inflation started increasing. (Chapter 3). Politicians were generally involved in disinflations, but their role and visibility decreased as legal inflation and central bank independence (CBI) increased. This suggests that, in practice, legal independence bestows the disinflation role on the central bank (Chapter 4). The role of politicians, however, is not fully clear because the proportion of elections where a voter backlash against inflation occurred was small. Therefore, the political dynamic against inflation may have occurred through elites, rather than popular opinion (Chapter 5). Finally, there was not a strong correlation between CBI in developed countries because the literature made errors of omitted variable bias and not examining whether CBI was endogenous. Inflation in the 1970s and 1980s was more clearly related to economic factors…

Subjects/Keywords: central banks; inflation; political leadership; technical decision making; delegation; Great Inflation; Phillips curve; economic literature; Federal Reserve System; United Kingdom; United States; Germany; OECD; economic vote

…45 3 – Monetary policy during the Great Inflation in the United States… …Great Inflation better than central bank independence… …97 The Great Inflation… …105 The Great Inflation… …112 The Great Inflation…

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APA · Chicago · MLA · Vancouver · CSE | Export to Zotero / EndNote / Reference Manager

APA (6^th Edition):

Monk, D. R. (2017). The dominant discourse of central bank independence . (Thesis). Australian National University. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/1885/143483

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Chicago Manual of Style (16^th Edition):

Monk, David Roger. “The dominant discourse of central bank independence .” 2017. Thesis, Australian National University. Accessed January 21, 2021. http://hdl.handle.net/1885/143483.

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

MLA Handbook (7^th Edition):

Monk, David Roger. “The dominant discourse of central bank independence .” 2017. Web. 21 Jan 2021.

Vancouver:

Monk DR. The dominant discourse of central bank independence . [Internet] [Thesis]. Australian National University; 2017. [cited 2021 Jan 21]. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/1885/143483.

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Council of Science Editors:

Monk DR. The dominant discourse of central bank independence . [Thesis]. Australian National University; 2017. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/1885/143483

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Queens University

11. Targa, Ryan. From Governors to Grocers: How Profiteering Changed English-Canadian Perspectives of Liberalism in the Great War of 1914-1918 .

Degree: History, 2013, Queens University

URL: http://hdl.handle.net/1974/8299

► The war against Germany was perceived by the majority of English Canadians as a necessity to defend the British Empire, democracy and justice. However, it… (more)

Subjects/Keywords: Food Controller ; World War One ; Military Contracts ; Scandals ; 1914-1918 ; Inflation ; Profit ; Liberalism ; Patronage ; Corruption ; Profiteers ; Profiteer ; Conscription ; Big Interests ; Income Tax ; Great War ; Income War Tax ; Business Profits War Tax ; Liberal Order ; Taxation ; Conscription of Wealth ; Combines ; Graft ; Jobbery ; First World War ; English Canada ; Patriotism ; Working Class ; Equality ; Equality of Sacrifice ; Regulation ; Shell Committee ; Imperial Munitions Board ; Profiteering ; Liberal ; Trusts ; Great War Veterans Association ; laissez-faire ; Democracy ; Board of Commerce ; Canada ; Food Board

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APA · Chicago · MLA · Vancouver · CSE | Export to Zotero / EndNote / Reference Manager

APA (6^th Edition):

Targa, R. (2013). From Governors to Grocers: How Profiteering Changed English-Canadian Perspectives of Liberalism in the Great War of 1914-1918 . (Thesis). Queens University. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/1974/8299

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Chicago Manual of Style (16^th Edition):

Targa, Ryan. “From Governors to Grocers: How Profiteering Changed English-Canadian Perspectives of Liberalism in the Great War of 1914-1918 .” 2013. Thesis, Queens University. Accessed January 21, 2021. http://hdl.handle.net/1974/8299.

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

MLA Handbook (7^th Edition):

Targa, Ryan. “From Governors to Grocers: How Profiteering Changed English-Canadian Perspectives of Liberalism in the Great War of 1914-1918 .” 2013. Web. 21 Jan 2021.

Vancouver:

Targa R. From Governors to Grocers: How Profiteering Changed English-Canadian Perspectives of Liberalism in the Great War of 1914-1918 . [Internet] [Thesis]. Queens University; 2013. [cited 2021 Jan 21]. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/1974/8299.

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Council of Science Editors:

Targa R. From Governors to Grocers: How Profiteering Changed English-Canadian Perspectives of Liberalism in the Great War of 1914-1918 . [Thesis]. Queens University; 2013. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/1974/8299

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

University of Vienna

12. Turner, Carlos. Ten years after the great financial crisis - status quo of banking systems.

Degree: 2018, University of Vienna

URL: http://othes.univie.ac.at/54773/

►

Diese Arbeit verfolgt das Ziel, ein vergleichendes Bild zwischen dem europäischen und amerikanischen Bankensystem von 2008 und der Situation zehn Jahre nach der globalen Finanzkrise… (more)

Subjects/Keywords: 85.30 Investition, Finanzierung; 85.99 Betriebswirtschaft: Sonstiges; 83.21 Marktwirtschaft; 83.30 Wirtschaftsentwicklung, Wirtschaftsstruktur: Allgemeines; 83.31 Wirtschaftswachstum; 83.33 Konjunktur; 83.50 Geld, Inflation, Kapitalmarkt; 83.70 Banken, Versicherungen; 83.99 Volkswirtschaft: Sonstiges; 86.25 Bankrecht, Börsenrecht; Bankenunion / Bankensysteme / Basel Akkord / Finanzkrise / Fiskalpolitik / Marktrisiko / Regulation / Wirtschaftswachstum; Banking union / banking systems / Basel Accord / economic growth / Great Financial Crisis / fiscal policy / regulation / systemic risk

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APA · Chicago · MLA · Vancouver · CSE | Export to Zotero / EndNote / Reference Manager

APA (6^th Edition):

Turner, C. (2018). Ten years after the great financial crisis - status quo of banking systems. (Thesis). University of Vienna. Retrieved from http://othes.univie.ac.at/54773/

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Chicago Manual of Style (16^th Edition):

Turner, Carlos. “Ten years after the great financial crisis - status quo of banking systems.” 2018. Thesis, University of Vienna. Accessed January 21, 2021. http://othes.univie.ac.at/54773/.

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

MLA Handbook (7^th Edition):

Turner, Carlos. “Ten years after the great financial crisis - status quo of banking systems.” 2018. Web. 21 Jan 2021.

Vancouver:

Turner C. Ten years after the great financial crisis - status quo of banking systems. [Internet] [Thesis]. University of Vienna; 2018. [cited 2021 Jan 21]. Available from: http://othes.univie.ac.at/54773/.

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Council of Science Editors:

Turner C. Ten years after the great financial crisis - status quo of banking systems. [Thesis]. University of Vienna; 2018. Available from: http://othes.univie.ac.at/54773/

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Universitat Pompeu Fabra

13. Nakov, Anton. Essays on the Liquidity Trap, Oil Shocks, and the Great Moderation.

Degree: Departament d'Economia i Empresa, 2007, Universitat Pompeu Fabra

URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10803/7360

► La tesis estudia tres problemas distintos de macroeconomía monetaria utilizando como marco común el equilibrio general dinámico bajo expectativas racionales y con rigidez nominal de… (more)

▼ La tesis estudia tres problemas distintos de macroeconomía monetaria utilizando como marco común el equilibrio general dinámico bajo expectativas racionales y con rigidez nominal de los precios. El primer capítulo trata el problema de la "trampa de liquidez" - un tema planteado primero por Keynes después de la Gran Depresión de 1929. El hecho de que el tipo de interés nominal no pueda ser negativo limita la posibilidad de llevar una política monetaria expansiva cuando el tipo de interés se acerca a cero. El capítulo estudia la conducta de la política monetaria en este entorno en aislamiento de otros posibles instrumentos de estabilización (como la política fiscal o la política de tipo de cambio). En concreto, se simula un modelo estándar Neo-Keynesiano con rigidez de precios a la Calvo bajo diferentes regimenes de política monetaria, incluida la política monetaria óptima. El reto consiste en resolver el modelo estocástico bajo la restricción explícita ocasionalmente vinculante de no negatividad de los tipos de interés. La solución supone parametrizar las expectativas y utilizar el método de solución global conocido como "colocación". Los resultados indican que la dinámica y en ocasiones los valores medios del tipo de interés, la inflación y el output gap están muy influidos por la presencia de la restricción de no negatividad. El compromiso con la regla monetaria óptima reduce las pérdidas de bienestar esperadas hasta una décima parte de las pérdidas obtenidas bajo la mejor política discrecional, mientras una política de meta constante del nivel de precios resulta en pérdidas que son sólo 60% mayores de las obtenidas bajo la regla óptima. Por otro lado, condicionado a a un choque fuerte deflacionario, las reglas instrumentarias simples funcionan mucho peor que la política óptima, aun si las pérdidas no condicionales de bienestar asociadas a dichas reglas no están muy afectadas por la presencia de la restricción de no negatividad en si. El segundo capítulo de la tesis estudia las implicaciones de la competencia imperfecta en el mercado del petróleo, y en concreto la existencia de un conflicto relevante entre la volatilidad de la inflación y la del output gap de un país importador de petróleo. En el modelo estándar Neo Keynesiano, los choques petroleros exógenos no generan ningún conflicto de objetivos: bajo una política de metas de inflación estricta, la caída del output es exactamente igual a la contracción eficiente del output en respuesta al choque. Este capitulo propone una extensión del modelo básico en la cual la presencia de un proveedor de petróleo dominante (OPEP) lleva a fluctuaciones ineficientes en el margen del precio del petróleo que reflejan una distorsión dinámica en el proceso de producción de la economía. Como consecuencia, ante choques provinientes del sector de petróleo, una política de estabilidad de los precios no conlleva automáticamente a una estabilización de la distancia del output de su nivel eficiente y existe un conflicto entre los dos objetivos. El modelo se aleja de la… Advisors/Committee Members: [email protected] (authoremail), true (authoremailshow), Galí, Jordi, 1961- (director).

Subjects/Keywords: choques del petróleo; discreción; reglas simples; compromiso; política monetaria optima; deflación; trampa de liquidez; ocasionalmente vinculante; oil share; restricción de non-negatividad; Great Moderation; inflation-output tradeoff; dominant firm; OPEC; oil shocks; discretion; simple rules; commitment; OPEP; optimal monetary policy; liquidity trap; deflation; occasionally binding constraint; zero lower bound; empresa dominante; conflicto inflación-output; Gran Moderación; 33

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APA · Chicago · MLA · Vancouver · CSE | Export to Zotero / EndNote / Reference Manager

APA (6^th Edition):

Nakov, A. (2007). Essays on the Liquidity Trap, Oil Shocks, and the Great Moderation. (Thesis). Universitat Pompeu Fabra. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/10803/7360

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Chicago Manual of Style (16^th Edition):

Nakov, Anton. “Essays on the Liquidity Trap, Oil Shocks, and the Great Moderation.” 2007. Thesis, Universitat Pompeu Fabra. Accessed January 21, 2021. http://hdl.handle.net/10803/7360.

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

MLA Handbook (7^th Edition):

Nakov, Anton. “Essays on the Liquidity Trap, Oil Shocks, and the Great Moderation.” 2007. Web. 21 Jan 2021.

Vancouver:

Nakov A. Essays on the Liquidity Trap, Oil Shocks, and the Great Moderation. [Internet] [Thesis]. Universitat Pompeu Fabra; 2007. [cited 2021 Jan 21]. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/10803/7360.

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Council of Science Editors:

Nakov A. Essays on the Liquidity Trap, Oil Shocks, and the Great Moderation. [Thesis]. Universitat Pompeu Fabra; 2007. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/10803/7360

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:
Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

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