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Author
Title Scenario-Based Preferences in Risk Analysis and Systems Engineering: Evolution through Time Frames
URL
Publication Date
Degree PhD
Degree Level doctoral
University/Publisher University of Virginia
Abstract Priority-setting in large-scale systems involves uncertainties across multiple, competing aims that span technology, climate, economy, regulatory, socio-economic, ecology, and other dimensions. Recent literature has advocated scenario-based preferences in multicriteria analysis to seek robust initiatives across scenarios of epistemic or deep uncertainty (Stewart et al. 2013; Goodwin and Wright 2001; Montibeller et al. 2006 and Parnell 1999). Schroeder and Lambert (2011) adopted scenario-based preferences for risk analysis, identifying combinations of risk factors that are influential to priority setting. Previous analyses fall short of addressing evolving initiatives, criteria, and uncertainties. The scenario-based approach should be implemented as a process that provides continuity of analyses across past, present, and future time frames. This dissertation describes a process for iterative framing of scenario-based preferences for risk analysis in systems engineering, updating criteria, alternatives, and emergent factors. The process is demonstrated in several case studies: (i) selecting energy technologies for islanding of fixed military installations, and (ii) selecting research and development initiatives for climate-change resilience of coastal facilities. The approach is generally applicable for risk analysis and systems engineering that addresses emergent and future conditions for the government, military, and industry.
Language en
Country of Publication us
Record ID virginia:10.18130/V3JF95
Repository virginia
Date Retrieved
Date Indexed 2020-03-31
Grantor University of Virginia
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